Why Draft Grades/Analysis Doesn't Matter

[Bensalama21]

You can literally make the case that exactly everything opposite this author said happened (For 2008 Draft):

Green Bay Packers: C+

I love the tough, physical corner from Auburn, Patrick Lee, for the Packers. He will get to learn from Al Harris and Charles Woodson and could develop into a solid nickel corner as a rookie. Also, TE Jermichael Finley from Texas brings great athleticism and upside to the Packers offense. I just don't understand WR Jordy Nelson when you have five solid wide receivers on your roster and bigger holes to fill. I do, however, like Brian Brohm in the second for Green Bay. They don't know if Aaron Rodgers it the next franchise QB and Brohm could have been a top 5 pick last year had he come out early. In two years, Brohm could be the Packers starting QB; if you're gonna draft a QB, why not one who can start for you? If nothing else, he is Matt Schaub like trade bait in a few seasons. South Florida OL Josh Sitton was a huge reach in the fourth, but Ted Thompson has very specific requirements of his offensive lineman and they really like him...that doesn't mean I have to.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/20330-nfl-draft-2008-report-card

 

[thisisnate]

Holy crap, that's terrible.

 

[FrankRizzo]

I saw a review recently of the Seattle 2011 Draft, which had Richard Sherman in the 5th round, a few picks after we took our own CB, D'Von House.

That review didn't even mention Sherman, but did mention a different DB taken AFTER Sherman. They liked that player's potential. I think it was another DB, but for sure they were talking up someone(s) taken after Sherman, but didn't even mention him.

I also liked Brian Brohm. That guy should have come out a year earlier and probably would have been a 1st round pick.

 

[Vrill]

Wow

 

[Einstein McFly]

Exactly

 

[SpartaChris]

I've long felt grading a draft right after it happened is just moronic. You need at least three years before assigning draft grades, however idiots still read them, so the media wonks have to do them.

 

[AmishMafia]

I've long felt grading a draft right after it happened is just moronic. You need at least three years before assigning draft grades, however idiots still read them, so the media wonks have to do them.

Why? I never understood this attitude.

We don't have any idea who will win the SB? Yet we will discuss that. We won't know who will win our NFCN, but we will discuss that and give our opinions. We don't know who will win each game, but we will also discuss that.

But when it comes to the draft we should not have opinions after the fact?

An ESPN analyst a few years ago wrote dozens of stories on a hundred prospects before the draft. Analyzing all the pros and cons of the play and what system they will fit and how they will translate to the NFL. As the draft unfolded he made recommendations for each team who they should pick and when they did pick, he critiqued it - ridiculing some picks and praising others. Upon the completion of the draft they asked him which teams get the best grades and he announces that he can't give out grades because he has to wait 3 years to know. I wish during his analysis of each pick he just said, "I have no idea if this is a good pick or not, get back to me in 3 years." Hell, after 3 years Matt Millen could figure it out.

No we won't know for sure how these players will do, but if you have a great understanding of football, knowledge of team systems, understanding of the talents needed to be successful, then you can look at a draft and form an opinion if it will likely be successful or not.

Think of it this way, if there was no way to know if players would be successful, NFL teams would not have scouting staffs and the NFL would do away with the draft and just randomly assign players to teams.

 

[PikeBadger]

Draft reviews done by so called journalist/media experts are useless. Every bit as worthless as the draft previews and boards done by the same people. The only real experts are the NFL gm's and their scouting staffs and it is pretty obvious that some of them aren't good at it in relation to their peers.
Imo, it's really bizarre to see forum board fans speak in such absolute terms about potential and then recent draftees, as if they have better and more complete information than the real professionals.

 

[HardRightEdge]

D'Von House

Is his nickname De De? You might have a misplaced apostrophe.

 

[easyk83]

Here is Kiper's review on the 2005 Packers Draft:

Green Bay Packers: C

The Packers had to take quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the first round. You just can't pass on the opportunity to get Brett Favre's heir apparent and give him some time to learn from one of the best passers ever, even though he won't help them win this year. Corner Nick Collins is a good athlete but very raw and was a reach in the second round, and while receiver Terrence Murphy is a nice player Green Bay didn't need a receiver. Safety Marviel Underwood was a solid pickup in the fourth round but linebacker Brady Poppinga might not be a good fit in the Packers' scheme. I like receiver Craig Bragg in the sixth round but there is just not enough defensive help in this class.


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Chortles.

 

[easyk83]

http://losersbracket.com/2012/04/packers-draft-review-2008-brohm-is-better-than-rodgers/

 

[HardRightEdge]

My draft grades immediately following the drafts have been as follows:

2012: B-
2013: B-
2014: B

 

[TJV]

I’ve posted this before. It’s the reaction of a now banned poster from this forum to the trade up for Clay Matthews. I’m posting it again because IMO it belongs in the HOF of dumb *** comments generally, and certainly regarding draftees.

“are you guys joking... we gave up WAY TOO MUCH for him.. are you kidding me we give up three picks to draft a guy who was a backup de for all of his carrer besides the last 10 games of usc's season.... we just drafted a co special team player of the year in the first round... that was the worst pick we could have ever possibly made.. hes an undersized linebacker and an undersized de.. hes absolutely useless..id much rather have poppinga started at olb then him... i am completely dissapointed we drafted a back up/ speacial teams player in the first round...its embarrassing”

and,

“regardless if he was at usc or not he was still a back up linebacker in college... this isnt college anymore this is the nfl... if you can't even start in college how could i believe he will be amazing in the nfl.. i cant help but doubt him... he only started 10 games and that was because of injury to the starter..he ranked 4th on the team in tackles so that means we got the worst usc linebacker in the draft and we wasted a first rounder on him...”

Grading drafts right after they happen doesn’t do any harm – they can be ignored if it really bothers someone. What I find fascinating is the certainty expressed by many of those who do the grading. The pros know even with all the work that goes into it, it’s a crap shoot; a calculated crap shoot, but still a crap shoot.That’s one of the reasons Thompson traded down so much as he was building the roster after he arrived.

 

[AmishMafia]

Here is Kiper's review on the 2005 Packers Draft:

Green Bay Packers: C

The Packers had to take quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the first round. You just can't pass on the opportunity to get Brett Favre's heir apparent and give him some time to learn from one of the best passers ever, even though he won't help them win this year. Corner Nick Collins is a good athlete but very raw and was a reach in the second round, and while receiver Terrence Murphy is a nice player Green Bay didn't need a receiver. Safety Marviel Underwood was a solid pickup in the fourth round but linebacker Brady Poppinga might not be a good fit in the Packers' scheme. I like receiver Craig Bragg in the sixth round but there is just not enough defensive help in this class.


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Chortles.

There are no guarantees in the draft. It is all about managing your risk and reward. Player A may go all in with 2/7 off-suit, you do not have the same odds as player B with pocket Aces. Now player A may win but that doesn't mean Player A is a better player. That is to say, Matt Millen drafted Calvin Johnson, that doesn't mean he was great at evaluating first round WRs.

And there is no harm in utilizing your football knowledge to formulate an opinion on what may happen.

What would you think if you asked someone who they thought was going to win the SB this season and their response was, "well there is no way to know because of injuries and how players will progress. Ask me after the SB and then I will tell you." Same thing.

 

[HardRightEdge]

delete

 

[El Guapo]

I track the drafts and assign grades after 2-3 seasons, but leave flexibility for changing those grades if necessary. I rarely read the pre- and post-draft stuff because it's all just opinions, somewhat interesting but still opinions. I agree with TJV that stating opinions as fact is ridiculous when nobody, not even the "experts" know how it will shake out. We are all just arm-chair quarterbacks with enough enthusiasm to post online but not be the guy in real life.

 

[SoonerPack]

Merril Hoge is without question the worst analyst going and that is saying something. Dude will ALWAYS say something stupid or take the contrarian angle for one and only one reason. Attention. He brings no tangible insight and I can think of 100 other former players that would shine if allowed the opportunities he has been given. This mini rant doesn't stem completely from the Brohm link above as all that did was remind me of what a blow hard he is. I am not much of an ESPN guy anymore as I feel NFLN, MLBN etc. provide far superior programming but if I happen to hit the 4 letter and see his tie knot on screen I keep scrolling. Hell, I think there are more than a handful of posters on this forum that could do a far better job than fuzzynuts does. I will get off my soapbox now... GPG!

 

[Carl]

My problem with guys like Kiper and McShay during the draft is how infrequently they say they dislike a pick. To them, 90% of the picks are all good. It would be much better if they actually disagreed with a pick once in a while, like when Polian ripped apart Borland right after he was picked.

As far as grades, they are interesting reads like mock drafts, but nothing to bet on.