What To Make Of Our WR No-Shows

[Pokerbrat2000]

Meh, this is all speculation. Teams take plenty of cap hits. I would prefer to avoid taking the biggest one in NFL history.

Almost everything we talk about here is speculation. If you really think the Packers are going to take a $19.75M cap hit on Preston Smith next year and a $19.25M one on Aaron Jones in 2023, I think you are speculating on the short side of the bet.

As far as Rodgers, an alternative could be worse, he retires, you get nothing for him and end up with that massive dead cap hit next year.

The Dead cap is already on the books, it really is just a matter of what year(s) they choose/are forced to report it. If our "rebuild starts this season", you take as much as you can now.

 

[Krabs]

Almost everything we talk about here is speculation. If you really think the Packers are going to take a $19.75M cap hit on Preston Smith next year and a $19.25M one on Aaron Jones in 2023, I think you are speculating on the short side of the bet.

As far as Rodgers, an alternative could be worse, he retires, you get nothing for him and end up with that massive dead cap hit next year.

The Dead cap is already on the books, it really is just a matter of what year(s) they choose/are forced to report it. If our "rebuild starts this season", you take as much as you can now.

They will take it for Aaron Jones. They will probably cut Preston after this season or rework his contract again before 2022. I agree it is a lot of money, but not the type of money it would cost right now to cut/trade Rodgers, which they won't do. I'm speculating of course.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

They will take it for Aaron Jones. They will probably cut Preston after this season or rework his contract again before 2022. I agree it is a lot of money, but not the type of money it would cost right now to cut/trade Rodgers, which they won't do. I'm speculating of course.

I highly doubt the Packers will keep Jones in 2023 with him counting $19.25 million towards the cap. Especially considering they will save $12.75 million by moving on from him at that point.

 

[Schultz]

Yeah the only way they would even consider it is if Dillon turns out to be a bust.

 

[thequick12]

They will take it for Aaron Jones. They will probably cut Preston after this season or rework his contract again before 2022. I agree it is a lot of money, but not the type of money it would cost right now to cut/trade Rodgers, which they won't do. I'm speculating of course.

The reason I agree about Jones is he's a better player than P.Smith and in 2023 I expect the salary cap to sky rocket. But yeah there's no way they keep P. Smith this restructure just delayed his eventual departure by a year

 

[Krabs]

I highly doubt the Packers will keep Jones in 2023 with him counting $19.25 million towards the cap. Especially considering they will save $12.75 million by moving on from him at that point.

There could easily be a restructure by then.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

There could easily be a restructure by then.

I agree the Packers could restructure Jones' contract before the start of the 2023 season. They won't keep him counting $19.25 million against the cap though.

 

[thequick12]

Yeah the only way they would even consider it is if Dillon turns out to be a bust.

I disagree...this is a 2 back offense 100% MLF is always gonna want 2 really good ones. One on a rookie deal Dillon and 1 on a real deal Jones works well to ensure the offense can run the ball like it wants to.

Now I think they'd still be likely to do some kind of restructure to that 19 m number to get it down a bit but I certainly don't think it's written in stone that Jones' last season for the Packers will be 2022...I think it's more likely it's not as I assume hell still be playing at a very high level at that point

 

[lambeaulambo]

Yeah the only way they would even consider it is if Dillon turns out to be a bust.

I'll pretend I didnt hear that...BUST???? Dillon has been anything but that so far and from all indications will only get better with more work.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I’m just curious how much leverage the receivers are going to feel they have next year. Packers can only franchise so many guys.

 

[thequick12]

I’m just curious how much leverage the receivers are going to feel they have next year. Packers can only franchise so many guys.

Adams will sign a huge extension

MVS is gonna price himself out of GB and that's fine...not a guy Id wanna pay 10 to 15 m per. although the low cap in 2022 could still affect his market

EQSB I doubt will have many suitors, even if he puts together a nice season

Lazard will be restricted and as an RFA I doubt anyone would sign him on the 2nd round tender...if the Packers really wanna keep him

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

MVS is gonna price himself out of GB and that's fine...not a guy Id wanna pay 10 to 15 m per. although the low cap in 2022 could still affect his market

I hope you are joking with those numbers. I wouldn't want to pay MVS $5-6M per. I hope I am wrong, but if Rodgers isn't playing this season, I think we see his numbers drop dramatically.

 

[tynimiller]

I hope you are joking with those numbers. I wouldn't want to pay MVS $5-6M per. I hope I am wrong, but if Rodgers isn't playing this season, I think we see his numbers drop dramatically.

He puts together a continue growth in this season he is easily on par for a Kenny Stills level contract which relative to now is that 8M or 9M maybe per.

 

[thequick12]

I hope you are joking with those numbers. I wouldn't want to pay MVS $5-6M per. I hope I am wrong, but if Rodgers isn't playing this season, I think we see his numbers drop dramatically.

No I'm serious but yes only if Rodgers is qb...in which case I expect mvs to flirt with 1000 yards 10 tds. Hence price himself out of GB because someone will pay him 10 to 15 m per in pre pandemic world for sure. I guess post I'll just settle on 10 m per

But yes I totally agree, I wouldn't personally sign him for anymore than what you said...I see him largely as a productive of Rodgers greatness

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Quick question on MVS:

Where are people getting the hope for a breakout season? Hear me out, I'm not trying to discuss whether it happens or not, I'm just trying to understand WHERE people think the improvement will come from. There are basically three ways for a receiver to improve (only looking at receiving):

1) More yards after the catch
2) Deeper targets
3) More receptions

For MVS, which of these do you think MVS is going to improve upon (and I'm assuming Rodgers is the QB)? I don't see deeper targets being an option. More yards after the catch would be nice but I'm not sure it's realistic since he averaged 7.7 yards after catch last season (which is really high).

The only realistic way I could see him improving markedly is with more receptions and that's only going to happen if he improves his catch rate OR if he gets more targets.

He could improve his catch percentage but the kind of deep passes he's generally targeted with aren't high percentage routes. He caught 52% of his targets last season. If we assume he caught 60% this season (and everything else is the same), he would have 100 more yards this season. That's better but it's not what I would think is a breakout.

Really, in my mind, the most likely route to him breaking out would be to garner more targets but doing that would require him to make a pretty significant leap in route running, no? He lead the NFL in yards per catch last year because a) he's big and fast and b) he doesn't really run any routes that aren't deep (so his average isn't lowered by short or intermediate targets). Do people expect him to get 30+ more targets in the short/intermediate areas this year? Because that would really be the most likely way for him to improve over last season. I just don't think the Packers can throw deep an extra 5+ times a game this season in the MLF offense.

I just want to understand the logic and the math behind projections of MVS making a jump this year. I want to be convinced because MVS making a big leap would be terrific for the offense. I just don't think he's the kind of route runner that can make that kind of leap. Or maybe my idea of a breakout season is different than others. When I think breakout for MVS I'm thinking close to 1,000 yards receiving.

 

[tynimiller]

Quick question on MVS:

Where are people getting the hope for a breakout season? Hear me out, I'm not trying to discuss whether it happens or not, I'm just trying to understand WHERE people think the improvement will come from. There are basically three ways for a receiver to improve (only looking at receiving):

1) More yards after the catch
2) Deeper targets
3) More receptions

For MVS, which of these do you think MVS is going to improve upon (and I'm assuming Rodgers is the QB)? I don't see deeper targets being an option. More yards after the catch would be nice but I'm not sure it's realistic since he averaged 7.7 yards after catch last season (which is really high).

The only realistic way I could see him improving markedly is with more receptions and that's only going to happen if he improves his catch rate OR if he gets more targets.

He could improve his catch percentage but the kind of deep passes he's generally targeted with aren't high percentage routes. He caught 52% of his targets last season. If we assume he caught 60% this season (and everything else is the same), he would have 100 more yards this season. That's better but it's not what I would think is a breakout.

Really, in my mind, the most likely route to him breaking out would be to garner more targets but doing that would require him to make a pretty significant leap in route running, no? He lead the NFL in yards per catch last year because a) he's big and fast and b) he doesn't really run any routes that aren't deep (so his average isn't lowered by short or intermediate targets). Do people expect him to get 30+ more targets in the short/intermediate areas this year? Because that would really be the most likely way for him to improve over last season. I just don't think the Packers can throw deep an extra 5+ times a game this season in the MLF offense.

I just want to understand the logic and the math behind projections of MVS making a jump this year. I want to be convinced because MVS making a big leap would be terrific for the offense. I just don't think he's the kind of route runner that can make that kind of leap. Or maybe my idea of a breakout season is different than others. When I think breakout for MVS I'm thinking close to 1,000 yards receiving.

My belief is structures primarily in his second half of the as well as how we began to see him used late in the season for 2020. The dude has earned as much playing time as his body can allow with the way he spreads the defense like no one else deep wise, plus his blocking. Arguably in games he was our number one blocker not just in his wilingness but in his positioning while doing so in the second half of the season. Either the Bears game or Eagles I cannot remember when many attacked his game as he had no receptions and blanked on the stat column I said it was one of his most complete games; his blocking was excellent, his routes at times drew coverage in a way that made plays for others and a few times his route running had him open but he was option #3 or #4 on the progression and it didn't happen.

Furthermore to the end of the season, the statline of his last few games last year isn't what drew my eye - but the plays which drove them. We saw him across the middle, shallow and mid-level options that many (including myself) didn't see him having the ability to do. We saw a glimpse of a wide receiver that doesn't fit his pure deep threat identity we all pegged him as (with justified backing mind you). Those are target opportunities we've never seen a season of for MVS.

He is the only WR on the roster that illustrated to me the most signs for heading in the right direction for an explosion of use and even play - which may or may not mean more yards and catches. If Rodgers is here we all know he spreads the wealth around for sure...and some could argue if Love starts MVS's season will hinge more on if he is that one or two guys the young quarterback connects with.

 

[Pkrjones]

I'll try to keep this short.
Regardless of who the QB is in '21 I would expect them to have approx. 475-500 passes which would keep similar run/pass balance as in '20. It could be argued that MLF will try to run more in '21 but I'll assume the mix stays the same.

In '20 AR threw 498 passes, of which 57% went to WR's, 24% to RB's, and 18.7% to TE's.

Of the 285 targets to WR's 52% went to D. Adams (149 targets), 12.7% to MVS (63 targets), and 9% to Lazard (46). Adams was targeted 22 more times than in '19, so wouldn't surprise me if he would get 1 or 2 less targets in '21 with some of those sliding MVS' way. Also wouldn't surprise me if the WR's as a whole received less targets with Tonyan and the RB's getting more.

In a nutshell, MLF will game-plan more play-action, misdirection and movement to create mismatches at all levels so MVS may be asked to block even more, run more intermediate routes OR be much more efficient if/when a long-ball is attempted & he's going against a safety. With AJones & Dillon the running attack could be featured more and everyone's targets go down, while allowing the offense to control the clock, more. MLF will keep D's off balance and guessing, while using all of his weapons to move the ball.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Rodgers isn't playing, I predict fewer passes and fewer long passes. Neither bodes well for MVS's stats. Now if Adams tells the Packers he isn't resigning if Rodgers is done and the Packers smartly trade Adams, then MVS might have better stats.