Well, the best solution would be to be able to keep the dead money at a minimum under all circumstances. It doesn't always work out that way but while it only affects a single year directly it reduces the money being allowed to roll over as well. In addition you have to find an adequate and cheap replacement for your scenario to work out.
Right. The player's deal can't be looked at in a vacuum. It has to be weighed against the cost of and the
risk in choosing a replacement.
Some of this discussion involves Shields. While Shields might not have played at a Pro Bowl level in 2014, we should all agree his cap number for this season of $5.6 mil looks at least reasonable. If that's not the case in someone's mind, then they should not be arguing cap; it should be a performance discussion along the lines of "how good is Shields, really?"
When the time comes, even if his 2016 numbers of $12.1 mil cap/$9 mil cash looks exorbitant, those numbers need to be weighed against the $5.9 mil cap savings in cutting him. That $5.9 mil is the cap available for a veteran "wash" replacement. That's not a lot for a cover corner.
Then there's the risk. What guarantee do you have that there will be a good fit replacement on the free agent market in that price range? None. You could go for a rookie and get cap savings in the bargain, but you risk a bust. The cost of failure at this position is very high. How about a guy from the bench who can step in? For that, we'll need to see who's available come 2016. We don't even know who the #2 and #3 cover corners will be next year.
Instead of a hypothetical, lets look at a real world case...Peppers.
His cap number for 2015 is $12 mil, with a $9.5 mil cash payout, with $5 mil dead cap and $7 mil cap savings if cut.
Did Pepper play to a $12 mil level this year or could he be expected to play to that level next year? Taken in a vacuum, certainly not. $12 mil would place him at #2 in the league among 3-4 OLBs behind Matthews based on annual average cap. Peppers is a Pro Bowl alternate, which seems about right among 3-down edge rushers.
How many think at this point that Peppers should be released at the end of this season because he's overvalued? Not many. Why? Because of the years of futility trying to find a "bookend" in the draft are fresh in the mind, including semi-failures with first round (Perry) and second round (Neal) picks.
We could also get into the history surrounding the failure to re-sign Jenkins and the subsequent issues in replacing that 3 tech/5 tech swing man.
So, if anybody thinks replacing Shields would be an easy matter, consider first the past failures and the risks in assuming some reasonably priced replacement will materialize.
