State of our former QB, Aaron Rodgers

Pokerbrat2000

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I'd be willing to put money on there not being any drama in Pittsburgh this year with ARod. If you think there has already been drama then I think you are just looking for it.
I was answering the question of "If Love suddenly retires, would you want Aaron Rodgers back to play in Green Bay." (See Below).

As far as "Drama in Pittsburgh" when it comes to AR. He already created some by not telling them whether he was going to play in 2026 and if he was, for them. Drama beyond that? I wouldn't hold my breath on either answer to that.


If Love suddenly retired and we still had a solid team, I'd be fine bringing in a vet QB as old as Rodgers and with the same skill sets, but pass on Aaron Rodgers the person. Green Bay got away from his drama and should continue on a path forward, not backwards.
 
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Magooch

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Honestly, with the money that NFL teams make, as long as a team keeps winning and making the playoffs (see Packers too), the season/organization is viewed as a "success". How much more money does a Super Bowl win bring to that 1 team that wins it? I get it, trophies and accolades are nice, but big bank accounts and being set for a long time, works just fine for most teams and players.

Coaches get fired, players get cut/traded, but they are all replaced with new people and every team keeps making money, all is good for NFL Franchises, winners and losers.
True enough - it's a lot easier to sell fans on "make the playoffs and we've got a chance!" whereas on the flip side if you have a year or two of mediocrity there are going to be a lot of fans to tune out and some might just not come back. When you're used to being "in the mix" you can get a bit spoiled and many are going to ask what the point of watching is if they don't really have a chance.

From a financial perspective I'm sure it's fine. They'll keep on keeping on and "good enough" from a sporting perspective is more than good enough financially. Even a pretty average NFL team these days is basically a money printing machine. But from the sporting side of it, as a fan (well, if I were a Steelers fan, if you know what I mean...), I don't know that it's the best way forward, I guess...
If Love suddenly retired and we still had a solid team, I'd be fine bringing in a vet QB as old as Rodgers and with the same skill sets, but pass on Aaron Rodgers the person. Green Bay got away from his drama and should continue on a path forward, not backwards.
What I mean here isn't in a vacuum though - It's not just a choice of Rodgers (or "Rodgers-type") or nothing. In the case of Pittsburgh it's actively choosing to eschew other options because you think Rodgers MIGHT return to you. That's a pretty crucial distinction IMO.

Like, if Love up and retired today, and Rodgers was out there as a free agent and everyone else had already signed up everyone else and the draft was over...then sure. I'd rather have Rodgers at the helm than Kyron Drones right now.

But in the case of Pittsburgh, their season ended January 12th, and with Rodgers on a one-year deal in the first place, he was out of contract. So they basically had the choice between A.) deciding to pivot and go a new direction at QB or B.) wait on a decision for Rodgers to (potentially) return and in doing so pass on signing a free agent QB, pass on drafting a QB earlier, pass on making a trade, etc...At this point you can certainly do worse than Rodgers as a "fallback" option but it feels like the Steelers made him their *primary* option and effectively treated the situation as though there were no better options available to them at any point. is that the case?
While a solid QB is definitely a plus, I think if you have a great defense, good coaching and decent players on offense, a slightly above average QB can take you pretty far in the NFL.
I agree with this, but as much as it pains me to say it, I'm not even sure Rodgers clears that bar at this point.

I think I posted previously that Rodgers still definitely has some strengths to him, and there are some stats that suggest he still has "it" to some degree, but the overall balance...is not trending super positive for him. I think I have watched every single game of Rodgers' professional career to my knowledge and he very much had the look of a player who has time catching up to him very quickly. As discussed mentally - decision making, assessment, analysis/etc is still as sharp as ever. But he can hardly move anymore. He can't make plays on the run, he can't work out of pressure, he can't extend plays, and that seriously hamstrings his overall ceiling. Last season something like 1/3rd of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage because he would constantly have to dump it off as soon as pressure arrived.

Last season he was 14th in passer rating...but 27th in QBR.
16th in TD percentage and 8th in INT percentage...but 27th in pass success rate. 33rd in intended air yards per attempt and completed air yards per attempt (how deep he's trying to throw). All the way down to 24th in "bad throw" percentage and 21st in on target percentage. In terms of ANY/A he was 18th, and he was 22nd in adjusted EPA/play, 22nd in completion percentage over expected, and 30th (last among qualified QBs) in air yards per.

And a crazy stat I read....last season Rodgers had the lowest pressure percentage in the league....but still the shortest time to throw. The Steelers kept a relatively clean pocket but if he gets even a sniff of pressure he's getting rid of the ball. He's always been risk-averse (when it comes to INTs) but last season he basically wouldn't throw to the middle of the field, period.

In other words, like I said - I take no joy in saying it, but by most metrics....Rodgers is an *average* QB at best right now. And by most measures he is indeed below-average now.

I'm rambling now but if I could put it very succinctly I think I would say it like this:

I think that bringing back Rodgers does raise the Steelers floor. I do not think that it does anything to raise their ceiling.
 
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I expect the Steelers season will look a lot like the last one. Good team - one-and -done in the playoffs. Hmm, that sounds familiar…….
Yeah all too familiar. Hoping this season we turn out to be in that top 1/4 of healthy teams instead of a rut in the bottom 1/4.

I just think the Packers will have better “juice” added on Defense in 2026 over last season. Wyatt is back. We did lose Gary and Enagbare. Yet we get Oliver, DDS, Hargrave, St Juste and Cisse. Hargrave has been pretty stout as an interior Pass Rusher also.

In the 5 seasons with 14+ starts? Hargrave posted 35.5 combined Sacks playing iDL (7.1 per season) so he’s not just a 1-dimensional Run Stuffer.
As a comparison..

Rashan Gary in 3 seasons with 14+ starts has 24.5 Sacks (8.17 per season)
Kenny Clark in 7 seasons with 14+ starts has 30.0 Sacks (4.29 per season)
 
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weeds

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Has anyone compared Love's and Rodgers' 2025 stats? They are all but identical. One is getting 22M and one is getting 50M.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Last season something like 1/3rd of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage
Well damn....I didn't know that once you are "old", they let you throw when you're past the LOS! :coffee:

I know what you meant, just giving you the business. ;)

I fully agree with you that Rodgers is past his prime and an immobile QB potentially can be a big liability. That said, short of trading away a boat load of draft capital to try and get Mendoza, I think Rodgers was probably the Steelers best option for 2026.
 
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Has anyone compared Love's and Rodgers' 2025 stats? They are all but identical. One is getting 22M and one is getting 50M.
It’s a pretty big $ disparity. Although Rodgers Cap average is $22mil and Jordan is $40.5Mil per averaged.
I tell you what, I’ll be following Rodgers this year. My guess is there’s a 2 to 1 chance this is his last season. The only way I see him coming back is if he has a similar season and they get to a Conference level or SB level and lose. That might be one condition he might push himself 1 more year.

One day soon he’ll be a distant memory in uniform and we’ll watch highlights. Enjoy it while it lasts. I kinda hope he has a similar season and gives some teams a scare. Such as making a Conference game etc.
 

SudsMcBucky

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Has anyone compared Love's and Rodgers' 2025 stats? They are all but identical. One is getting 22M and one is getting 50M.
The difference, though, is that one team is paying assuming a continued upward trajectory and many years still left in the tank. The other team is paying for a player on the downward slide of a career with a very short runway left.
 

Heyjoe4

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Let me ask it like this:

Suppose that at the end of last season Jordan Love unexpectedly decides to retire young and walk away from the game.

And let's just suppose Rodgers is willing to come back...how many of us would want to pay him 25m/yr to come be QB for a year? It's hard for me to say that would be a more appealing option than trying out Willis, for instance (the main selling point in favor of Rodgers is probably no guaranteed money beyond this year. They will make roughly the same AAV but Willis gets 45m guaranteed, for example)

Overall though it just feels like the Steelers as an organization are so absolutely opposed to having a "down" year that they would simply rather continue on with "bridge" QBs and just hope for the best. I mean, let's fast forward to next year. Let's say that the Steelers perform as well as they did last year, maybe even a little better! That would be more or less a "success" for Rodgers' time with them.

That means they are probably again picking in that #20ish spot. And if you had to guess... they are probably drafting after teams like the Jets, Cardinals, Browns, Dolphins, maybe the Bucs....any and/or all of whom could reasonably be looking to take a QB. I'd say your top two are pretty unanimously Arch Manning and Dante Moore so it's safe to say they're gone. And it wouldn't be too surprising if you saw one or two of Julian Sayin, CJ Carr, LaNorris Sellers, etc taken in that span as well. All that to say - it would not be the most surprising thing in the world to see the Steelers looking at something like QB4 or QB5 when they're due to pick. Are they going to be all-in on signing someone like Sellers, Mensah, Mestemaker, Maiava, whoever at that point? Will they package capital to move up to get the guy they want?

On the plus side it's a very deep QB class, but I feel like they've played themselves into a really tricky situation now. And it wouldn't really be terribly surprising if we got to this time next year and had Pittsburgh again signing a vet QB to a short-term deal and running it back yet again...
That's an interesting "what if" Magooch. I'd be fine bringing Rodgers back under that scenario, assuming there is no better option.

Having a long, consecutive number of winning seasons (Steelers) is evidence of good personnel management and just a well-run team. But that team is never drafting at a point where it can take a likely "franchise/elite" QB, and so they are never really getting much farther than the wild card round. So they keep running it back with serviceable, but not franchise/elite-level QBs.

Now the Packers have fielded very good teams since Bob Harlan/Ron Wolf came to town in the early 90s, and this inlcudes two SB wins. Some may argue that is too few given the elite QBs behind those seasons. I'm pretty happy with a consistently good team that can upgrade to a real SB contender with a few breaks.
 

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The difference, though, is that one team is paying assuming a continued upward trajectory and many years still left in the tank. The other team is paying for a player on the downward slide of a career with a very short runway left.
What I thought was interesting, though I haven't looked, is just that they had similar stats. Dangerous though it may be, and I don't mean a whole lot, I think Love has to be aware of and take advantage of taking off with the ball.
 

Heyjoe4

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The difference, though, is that one team is paying assuming a continued upward trajectory and many years still left in the tank. The other team is paying for a player on the downward slide of a career with a very short runway left.
Yeah it's really not much of a comparison, taking the long view. The Packers, hopefully, won't need to be concerned about QB for the next 10-12 years. It's very different in Pitt.
 

rmontro

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Has anyone compared Love's and Rodgers' 2025 stats? They are all but identical. One is getting 22M and one is getting 50M.
I've noticed that. Love's are a little better though.
Those guys make crazy money.
 

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Honestly, with the money that NFL teams make, as long as a team keeps winning and making the playoffs (see Packers too), the season/organization is viewed as a "success". How much more money does a Super Bowl win bring to that 1 team that wins it? I get it, trophies and accolades are nice, but big bank accounts and being set for a long time, works just fine for most teams and players.

Coaches get fired, players get cut/traded, but they are all replaced with new people and every team keeps making money, all is good for NFL Franchises, winners and losers.



If Love suddenly retired and we still had a solid team, I'd be fine bringing in a vet QB as old as Rodgers and with the same skill sets, but pass on Aaron Rodgers the person. Green Bay got away from his drama and should continue on a path forward, not backwards.

While a solid QB is definitely a plus, I think if you have a great defense, good coaching and decent players on offense, a slightly above average QB can take you pretty far in the NFL.
Agree with all. I did say I would be fine with Rodgers coming back for a year in the unlikley event Love walks away from football. After thinking about your comment, there is too much non-football garbage that Rodgers collects and carries with him. So after thinking about it, no, I wouldn't want him back either.

Teams with elite (top 5) defenses are better positioned to win championships, IMO. I think the #1 rated offense has played the #1 rated defense six times in SB history. The team with the elite D won 5 of the 6, the lone exception being one of the Montana-led niner teams.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Agree with all. I did say I would be fine with Rodgers coming back for a year in the unlikley event Love walks away from football. After thinking about your comment, there is too much non-football garbage that Rodgers collects and carries with him. So after thinking about it, no, I wouldn't want him back either.

It would be interesting to see how Packer fans would react to Aaron trotting onto the field again in a Packer jersey. Some would welcome him with open arms and some would roll their eyes and say "Here we go again." Don't get me wrong, I don't think Rodgers is a bad guy and he hasn't committed "Favre like" atrocities off the field, I just think it wouldn't be the wisest move for the team to even consider the idea.

I am pretty convinced that the next time Rodgers walks out onto Lambeau field to cheers and applause, will be when his number is retired and he is hailed as a Packer all-time legend.
 

Magooch

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I'm really just posing the question strictly from a sporting perspective, too. For the thought exercise you can assign whichever name you'd like to it - I just mean a "Rodgers-level" quarterback, not so much Rodgers the "person" if that makes sense.

And like I was saying, I think you could do a lot worse if you found yourself in an emergency-type situation. If Love got injured and there was a veteran "Rodgers-level" free agent who we could have step in and lead the team for a year, that's not the worst thing in the world.

But, like I was also saying....that is NOT the situation that Pittsburgh found themselves in. It wasn't a case of "I'd be okay with Rodgers if there were no better options" but instead effectively taking a stance that proactively says "Rodgers is our best option"

If the Steelers had spent the last few months trying to sign a starting-caliber FA QB, or trying to facilitate a trade for a QB, or working on moving around in the draft to land one of their top targets (Not a great example given how QB-sparse this draft was), and finally arrived at the conclusion that none of those options were going to work out so they had Rodgers as their "fallback plan" and signed him late, that'd be understandable. Like I said, given the circumstances, last minute type thing, you could do a lot worse.

And granted the Steelers COULD have been doing those things behind the scenes. But if that's the case, let's just say they were very, VERY sneaky about it because we heard nary a peep about such activities...Rather it has seemed all along like the Steelers made the conscious choice to not pursue other FA QBs, not pursue a trade, and not move around any draft capital BECAUSE they were banking on Rodgers being their QB.

So that to me is the big distinction here. Again, speaking purely from a sporting perspective, not personality... I would absolutely be on board with a Rodgers-type QB in a pinch, short term, Plan B or C type of thing. But I would have a very hard time signing on to the idea that Rodgers as "Plan A" is the best path forward for the Steelers (or most teams, to be brutally honest)
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I'm really just posing the question strictly from a sporting perspective, too. For the thought exercise you can assign whichever name you'd like to it - I just mean a "Rodgers-level" quarterback, not so much Rodgers the "person" if that makes sense.

And like I was saying, I think you could do a lot worse if you found yourself in an emergency-type situation. If Love got injured and there was a veteran "Rodgers-level" free agent who we could have step in and lead the team for a year, that's not the worst thing in the world.

But, like I was also saying....that is NOT the situation that Pittsburgh found themselves in. It wasn't a case of "I'd be okay with Rodgers if there were no better options" but instead effectively taking a stance that proactively says "Rodgers is our best option"

If the Steelers had spent the last few months trying to sign a starting-caliber FA QB, or trying to facilitate a trade for a QB, or working on moving around in the draft to land one of their top targets (Not a great example given how QB-sparse this draft was), and finally arrived at the conclusion that none of those options were going to work out so they had Rodgers as their "fallback plan" and signed him late, that'd be understandable. Like I said, given the circumstances, last minute type thing, you could do a lot worse.

And granted the Steelers COULD have been doing those things behind the scenes. But if that's the case, let's just say they were very, VERY sneaky about it because we heard nary a peep about such activities...Rather it has seemed all along like the Steelers made the conscious choice to not pursue other FA QBs, not pursue a trade, and not move around any draft capital BECAUSE they were banking on Rodgers being their QB.

So that to me is the big distinction here. Again, speaking purely from a sporting perspective, not personality... I would absolutely be on board with a Rodgers-type QB in a pinch, short term, Plan B or C type of thing. But I would have a very hard time signing on to the idea that Rodgers as "Plan A" is the best path forward for the Steelers (or most teams, to be brutally honest)

Thanks for the clarification. I agree that a "Rodgers like" QB isn't always a bad option. Given the price of a proven elite QB, Rodgers is coming at a discount in my opinion. Yes, his mobility is questionable, but the guy can still sling a football and IMO, is one of the smartest QB's to play the game.

I am never a fan of throwing a rookie QB out on the field to "break him in". Even if he was the first pick in the draft, I would much rather see him be developed properly and slowly. Build-up his confidence and technique slowly. Doing the opposite by putting his feet to the fire right away can have all sorts of long lasting bad effects. Rodgers and Love are both good examples of the kind of QB you can end up with, when the process is done correctly.

As far as the Steelers go, I am sure there was more going on behind the scenes that we aren't aware of. Conversations between Rodgers, GM Khan and even new HC Mike McCarthy. As Packer fans, we learned that Rodgers does not like people speaking for him, he wants to be the one to tell the public any "Aaron Rodgers News", when he is ready for it to be heard. So I am pretty sure that the Steelers had a good idea of where Rodgers was in his decision process and the odds that he would be back for them. That said, I don't think the Steelers sat on their hands either. They may have shopped around for a FA QB. They did select Drew Allar in the 3rd round of the draft, but that was more for an eye towards 2027 and beyond.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Age is the big difference, no team is going to pay a 40+ yr old QB $50M a year

Yet you look at what some guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Rivers, etc. have done at age 40 and above and compare it to what some of these young guys are paid, based more on potential than actual performance, and the pay scale is really kind of a joke.
 

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The numbers for Rodgers make me believe there probably wasn't much of a negotiation. He just wanted to play and maybe said that he'd play for that amount.
 

Magooch

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I mean Love and Rodgers most base-level raw numbers are pretty similar.

Love 3381 yards, Rodgers 3322 yards
Love 23 pass TD, Rodgers 24 pass TD
Love 6 INT, Rodgers 7 INT
Love 66.3% completion, Rodgers 65.7%

But Love is pretty dramatically ahead of Rodgers now in every other regard:
Pass Success %: Love 50.2 (7th), Rodgers 42.9 (27th)
TD%: Love 5.2 (10th), Rodgers 4.8 (16th)
Y/A: Love 7.7 (8th), Rodgers 6.7 (27th)
AY/A: Love 8.1 (6th), Rodgers 7.0 (22nd)
Y/C: Love 11.6 (10th), Rodgers 10.2 (27th)
Passer Rating: Love 101.2 (6th), Rodgers 94.8 (14th)
QBR: Love 72.7 (3rd), Rodgers 44.4 (27th)
NY/A: Love 6.98 (7th), Rodgers 5.96 (23rd)
ANY/A: Love 7.4 (5th), Rodgers 6.3 (18th)
Air Yards/Attempt: Love 8.9 (6th), Rodgers 6.2 (30th)
Completion percentage over expected: Love 5.5 (3rd), Rodgers 0.0 (22nd)
EPA per play: Love 0.284 (2nd), Rodgers 0.064 (22nd)
Adjusted EPA/play: Love 0.289 (2nd), Rodgers 0.077 (22nd)
 

DoURant

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Yet you look at what some guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Rivers, etc. have done at age 40 and above and compare it to what some of these young guys are paid, based more on potential than actual performance, and the pay scale is really kind of a joke.
The pay scale in any sport will never be solely based on performance. Sure there are performance bonuses written in the contracts, but base salary will always be set by what have you done prior, and potential to repeat or improve moving forward. Professional sports is a young man's game, aside for Kickers and QB's... if you are good/great at those positions, you will have a long career. The other positions are too physically demanding and the toll the body takes from hits is not sustainable, and guys who get to play into their 30's is a low percentage.
 

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