'Splain this one Lucy?

[Voyageur]

Listening to people say that Watkins is at the end of his prime ability level, not worth a lot. Then they tell me that Davante Adams is in his prime, worthy of that huge contract he got.

Now explain to me how this works, since Adams is actually older than Watkins?

 

[Schultz]

One guy is really, really, good and the other guy isn't.

 

[thisisnate]

Depends on how you interpret "prime," and I know this forum loves a good discussion of semantics.

 

[OldSchool101]

I considered that age factor the other day after the news broke.
28yrs for me is late 3rd quarter of his career.

This is going to be a do or die season for Watkins. If he plays poorly he might play himself right out of the league in a year or 2. However conversely, if he plays stellar? I’d expect him to get a substantial offer that doubles what we’re paying him.

Sammy has a perfect opportunity to prove his worth this season. If he’s healthy and performs above expectations, he could extend his career 3-4 years easy.

This is a very critical year to swing momentum for his remaining career in either direction.


Happy Easter everyone!
The Lord is Good
Love,

Fred n Ethel

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Davante got over $28M and Watkins can earn up to $4M....that is probably what many look at. $4M doesn't buy you much in the NFL. If Watkins stays healthy, it will probably work out as a bargain for the Packers. IF he only plays 10 or so games, he may still produce enough to warrant it. Now Adams, he better play 16+ games and put numbers 7 times larger than Watkins.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sammy has a perfect opportunity to prove his worth this season. If he’s healthy and performs above expectations, he could extend his career 3-4 years easy.

Exactly and I what better opportunity than a team with probably the best QB in the NFL and very little competition at WR. This isn't like going back to KC, LA, Dallas, etc., where the competition just for snaps is huge.

 

[Spanky]

Watkins can't stay healthy. I don't predict that will get better with age.

 

[tynimiller]

Both are at the same points in a typical receivers lifespan where performance begins to drop….except for the elite of the elites that nearly do or do earn a gold jackets (they last bit longer).

Watkins and Adams cannot be compared except they’re both wide receivers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Watkins injury history was an interesting read. Guessing it reads like quite a few players. Both him and Cobb will most likely miss some snaps in 2022. Yet another reason it's important to continue to improve the WR room.

Sammy Watkins - Injury History

Fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, advice, and news from Draft Sharks to help you dominate your league

www.draftsharks.com

 

[Schultz]

IMO a good plan would be to play Cobb weeks 1,3,5,7,9,11.13.15 & 17. Then play Watkins on the even weeks. Then they could be healthy for the play-offs.

 

[OldSchool101]

Watkins injury history was an interesting read. Guessing it reads like quite a few players. Both him and Cobb will most likely miss some snaps in 2022. Yet another reason it's important to continue to improve the WR room.

Sammy Watkins - Injury History

Fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, advice, and news from Draft Sharks to help you dominate your league

www.draftsharks.com

What is promising is he’s only had 2 concussions 3 years apart over his NFL career and only missed that week. Also no concussions in the last 2 seasons, So they were minute.

I also noticed many injuries are lower body muscle strains, which are more aggravating but not long term concerns.

We just need a little magic blending with Rodgers (I think #12 likes and respects Sammy) and a sprinkle of God’s grace on his physical well being. Those 2 things? and we’d be in for a real treat.

I’m pretty sure he’ll be a great asset in helping a young Rookie Stud grow. That conceivably could up his game like it did at Baltimore. A #4 overall doesn’t want to get shown up by a Rookie, just ask Rashod Bateman.

 

[longtimefan]

What is promising is he’s only had 2 concussions 3 years apart over his NFL career and only missed that week. Also no concussions in the last 2 seasons, So they were minute.

I also noticed many injuries are lower body muscle strains, which are more aggravating but not long term concerns.

We just need a little magic blending with Rodgers (I think #12 likes and respects Sammy) and a sprinkle of God’s grace on his physical well being. Those 2 things? and we’d be in for a real treat.

I’m pretty sure he’ll be a great asset in helping a young Rookie Stud grow. That conceivably could up his game like it did at Baltimore. A #4 overall doesn’t want to get shown up by a Rook.

Some were same foot after surgery

 

[PikeBadger]

IMO a good plan would be to play Cobb weeks 1,3,5,7,9,11.13.15 & 17. Then play Watkins on the even weeks. Then they could be healthy for the play-offs.

Very creative solution!! I kind of like it! Almost guarantees that Watkins doesn't make any incentives that may be in his contract.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Listening to people say that Watkins is at the end of his prime ability level, not worth a lot. Then they tell me that Davante Adams is in his prime, worthy of that huge contract he got.

Now explain to me how this works, since Adams is actually older than Watkins?

Adams in 2021: 123 receptions, 1,553 yards, 11 TDs
Watkins from 2019-21: 116 receptions, 1,488 yards, 6 TDs

That's why Adams is considered an elite receiver while Watkins isn't.

 

[Voyageur]

Adams in 2021: 123 receptions, 1,553 yards, 11 TDs
Watkins from 2019-21: 116 receptions, 1,488 yards, 6 TDs

That's why Adams is considered an elite receiver while Watkins isn't.

Your response does not address the age issue. If we're talking about past production, I agree, there's a vast difference, but you can't have it both ways. Saying it's age, when convenient, then saying it's past performance when it's convenient is like comparing apples to bananas.

Watkins is still at an age where - if healthy - could possibly produce some seriously decent numbers with a QB like Rodgers making him one of his favorite targets.

I doubt very much that the Packers were stupid enough to sign someone to a contract that they didn't believe could contribute to a healthy passing game.

I respect the opinion of others on this issue, as long as they don't keep changing their criteria for judgement. So, which is it, age or production that determines what the prime age is to play in the NFL? It can't be both.

 

[tynimiller]

Folks looking strictly at production don't see the productivity or efficiency of a receiver when in they only see the overall - BOTH are critical in discussing and reviewing a WR. Shoot Adams misses games nearly every year

Adams per game stats vs Watkins per game stats may be intriguing to many and as expected for most I'd expect - they're just not the same level of players even when in - although no one makes that claim reasonably:

	Games	GS	Targets	Rec	Yards	YPC	TDs	Rec/G	Yards/G	Targets/G	Ctch%
Watkins	99	91	595	348	5059	14.53736	34	3.5	51.1	6.0	58.49%
Adams	116	109	1012	669	8121	12.13901	73	5.8	70.0	8.7	66.11%

It is nuts as injured as Watkins has been Adams in the same stretch of years has only been active 17 more games than him...Watkins has only had one year where he played all games, Adams has done it twice.

The only statistical column Watkins beats Adams in is YPC, which given their athletic profile and role in offenses this was to be assumed would be the case. IF you amended Adams figures to fit the targeted per games amount that Watkins has had over his career and vice versa if you amended Watkins figures using Adams amount of Targets a game (using each of their catch percentages over their career) their yardage output becomes:

			Targets	Receptions	Yards
Watkins "IF"	99		864	505	7344
Adams "IF"	116		697	669	8121

*The above "IF" for Adams was spotted to be in error after comment was posted, scroll down a couple posts to see the corrected amount...you will be shocked - "maybe"


As you can see Adams is incredibly more efficient than Watkins has been BUT that was expected, yet Watkins is clearly effective when he is healthy that cannot be questioned, despite him being a different type of WR in an offense and also just a different caliber of WR overall to Adams as well.

 

[longtimefan]

Listening to people say that Watkins is at the end of his prime ability level, not worth a lot. Then they tell me that Davante Adams is in his prime, worthy of that huge contract he got.

Now explain to me how this works, since Adams is actually older than Watkins?

Adams has had rodgers entire career.
Other than Mahomes one good year who else did have throwing to him?

 

[longtimefan]

Folks looking strictly at production don't see the productivity or efficiency of a receiver when in they only see the overall - BOTH are critical in discussing and reviewing a WR. Shoot Adams misses games nearly every year

Adams per game stats vs Watkins per game stats may be intriguing to many and as expected for most I'd expect - they're just not the same level of players even when in - although no one makes that claim reasonably:

	Games	GS	Targets	Rec	Yards	YPC	TDs	Rec/G	Yards/G	Targets/G	Ctch%
Watkins	99	91	595	348	5059	14.53736	34	3.5	51.1	6.0	58.49%
Adams	116	109	1012	669	8121	12.13901	73	5.8	70.0	8.7	66.11%

It is nuts as injured as Watkins has been Adams in the same stretch of years has only been active 17 more games than him...Watkins has only had one year where he played all games, Adams has done it twice.

The only statistical column Watkins beats Adams in is YPC, which given their athletic profile and role in offenses this was to be assumed would be the case. IF you amended Adams figures to fit the targeted per games amount that Watkins has had over his career and vice versa if you amended Watkins figures using Adams amount of Targets a game (using each of their catch percentages over their career) their yardage output becomes:

			Targets	Receptions	Yards
Watkins "IF"	99		864	505	7344
Adams "IF"	116		697	669	8121

As you can see Adams is incredibly more efficient than Watkins has been BUT that was expected, yet Watkins is clearly effective when he is healthy that cannot be questioned, despite him being a different type of WR in an offense and also just a different caliber of WR overall to Adams as well.

I just posted it..but qb throwing to them.matters, doesnt it? And injures matter...

I cant truly use stats to compare. To many varibles for me

 

[tynimiller]

I just posted it..but qb throwing to them.matters, doesnt it? And injures matter...

I cant truly use stats to compare. To many varibles for me

Correct, I was merely addressing a statistical review and swapping their targets to illustrate production levels more relative to if both were treated as the other in their offenses. For sure some of Watkins issues catch percentage wise has been QB play when healthy still. Or that is a logical point to claim, which of course no one can refute or defend with any real claim to fact.

 

[tynimiller]

Hang on....something is off about the Adams "IF" column in what I posted I clicked the wrong cell for calculations. IF Adams was targeted as Watkins has been over his career this is what Adams line would be:

Adams "IF"

116

697

461

5595

So as you can see efficiency in yards when in are actually quite similar as Watkins.

So Adams targeted as much as Watkins produces 5,595 yards vs what Watkins has at 5,059
AND Watkins targeted as much as Adams produces 7,344 yards vs what Adams has at 8,121

Health is all Watkins has needed to be honestly a very similar WR in yardage...that doesn't necessarily mean same level of a WR so no one go running with that...however he has shown if he is in when the ball is snapped he can produce at a WR1 level over his career.

 

[Voyageur]

You guys have made my point. He may not be Adams, since nobody is, but that doesn't mean he's not capable of producing numbers that will help the offense, if he stays healthy. The "prime" issue isn't a relative argument because both are of similar age.

If you can't get the results of an Adams with one receiver, you get a second one to handle a larger load, then a third with an increased load. Adding someone like Fuller might give them that additional lift they need in getting the numbers they want.

It's the total results that matter, not how great one individual player is. That may look great on TV, but a few journeymen who can do a reasonably good job can be just as effective in the long haul.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Besides the QB(s) that each player has played with, I think you also have to look at the entire picture, that being the offense as well as the players around said player. Adams has been the Packers #1 back since...a long time. Was Watkins the #1 ever at Buffalo? I would also say Watkins being on 4 (now 5) teams since drafted, isn't going to help his numbers either.

I'm not trying to make an argument that Watkins is better than Adams, he definitely isn't. However, I think Watkins has a lot more potential to put up some decent numbers, than what some fans think he will.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's a crazy thing that illustrates how efficient Lazard is...if you add just one more target per game he adds 125 yards a year to this totals and quickly is in the range of being a WR2. He is targeted at a rate of just 3.78 for the last 3 years, which compared to Watkins is even VERY low...shoot Aaron Jones has been targeted 4.35 times a game in that same three year window.

I only say all this because too many folks just look at stats and don't break it down to the efficiency of those figures - I guarantee Gute, scouts and everyone in the league 100% does.

 

[Voyageur]

It's great seeing posters understanding the big picture, not just the individual player concept. It takes several receivers to create a passing game. Sometimes teams, and QBs, become to reliant on that one guy to catch everything. I think that happened with the Packers, and Rodgers. It goes with the territory relating to the game.

When we look back, the Packers won their games when Adams was out with injuries. That speaks volumes about what can actually be done without a super star on the field. If you can have others step up enough that their combined efforts offsets the loss of that super star, you're talking about a better team concept, because there are more targets out there on important plays that the QB actually trusts.

Let's hope that's the direction the Packers are headed. Let's hope that we have 3 or 4 guys who step up and have receptions, yardage, and TDs, by committee.

 

[tynimiller]

Rodgers and MLF are the main ingredients to those wins without Adams and those are still here. Losing a player of Adams caliber hurts and no doubt will early in the season the most and on crucial third downs at times for a while. However no one player outside or QB IMO has that great or an impact