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should we even expect immediate help from the draft?

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by Schultz, Apr 22, 2021.

  1. Schultz

    Schultz Cheesehead

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    Key losses and replacements from 2019 to 2020. Feel free to correct and enlighten me on any I missed.

    OL-Bulaga to Wagner (FA)
    LB-Martinez, Fackrell, Goodson became Kirksey(FA),Martin(D),Barnes(UDFA)
    TE-Graham to Tonyan (Roster)
    they also signed Funchess but he opted out

    2020 to 2021

    Wagner to Runyan(roster)
    Williams to Dillon(roster)
    Linsley- TBD hopefully in the Draft
    Kirksey- TBD

    to a lesser extent
    Bakhitari (PUP) - TBD
    Ervin/Austin- does what Deguara brings to the table replace this or is a 6th,7th or UDFA needed.
    Greene- Hopefully DB is addressed early in the draft

    So the 2020 draft did not do much to help the NFC Title game losers from 2019. That draft could help the 2020 NFC title game losers though. It was more of Rodgers and the MLF offense meshing as well as certain guys improving from one year to the next. Will Gute hope for the same and draft BPA with an eye on the future considering cap issues and expiring contracts or does he use the day 1 & 2 picks to shore up OL, DL, DB and give this team a better shot at the SB? Just how much confidence do they have in Funchess?
     
  2. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Deguara does not play the role Ervin/Austin does.

    I'd argue Kirksey is essentially already replaced with a healthy Kamal and Barnes illustrating success - pair in growth on roster or a draftee I don't think we notice a Kirksey void 2021 roster (and I like the guy, high class person).

    So the DB worries to a point have been "answered" albeit not in a way many of us believe it should have been with Sully and King resigning - although I think for sure we leave this draft with a couple DBs....whether that is S or CB of some combination.

    As for the OL worries, I suspect while we could and may draft two starters, I think the most likely scenario is one of our two issues (Tackle or Center) are answered by Jenkins - and which one it is will be governed more by whom is drafted and can slide to one or the other.
     
  3. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Does the TE we drafted take the place of returners who occasionally ran jet sweeps?

    I’m gonna go ahead and say no.
     
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  4. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    To answer your question, usually you do not get immediate help from a draft class. At least not immediate significant help.
     
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  5. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Pack

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    I’m going to go against the grain and say Yes.

    I know we should be gun shy about that answer, because more often we’ve had players flop than succeed. We’ve also had our share of early injuries or personal obligations play an adverse effect. Think Sternberger, Burks, Moore, Madison, Montravious, Biegel, Spriggs, Rollins, Thornton, Worthy, Neal, Franklin, the list goes on and on. btw, I’m not blaming anyone, I’m just stating an observation of us striking out for various reasons.

    It’s my opinion we should go after more polished college athletes this season. High floor, medium Ceiling athletes that will contribute early. I think we should focus on that through Round 4 and that gives us a potential 5 players who are competing at a starting role. WR#3, ILB #2, DT #2 Returner #1 etc..
    I’d also stay away from draftees with significant injury concerns altogether with the first 3-5 selections if at all possible (within reason)..

    PS. I still think GB will sign another veteran as a presumed starter at 1 more position. There’s a heap of quality FA out there that would take near vet minimum $ to get a ring and revitalize their career.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2021
  6. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I concur with @OldSchool101 it isn't unreasonable to expect a guy or two picked to see and contribute a significant amount depending on position and role:

    A DB used as the slot or dime package guy can 100% contribute immediately that first year.

    I think a Tackle, not forced into LT role has a solid chance. I likewise think a C by two experienced guards has a solid chance of excelling or providing starter play immediately.

    Likewise your slot WRs can 100% provide immediate impact.

    Guys in the KR or PR role can as well.

    In the MLF system a TE like Deguara (which we saw glimpse of till injury) was going to be a very high snap count type guy immediately out the gate.
     
  7. Schultz

    Schultz Cheesehead

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    Thanks for the corrections and enlightenment guys (and gals if appropriate). I guess what I meant about Deguara is the way he is supposed to be lined up all over the place does that have a similar effect on the defense as a man in motion would?
    I hope OL is a top priority since keeping Rodgers healthy is by far THE TOP PRIORITY.
    I hope this draft leads to a better secondary than last season, not better a couple of years from now.
    This one is the toughest since DL is not very deep in this draft, but they have to do better than Lowery.
    I also believe they will pull the trigger on 1 more free agent, possibly one of the 3 positions I mentioned.
     
  8. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Yes, but within reason.

    Draft classes usually help rosters, just not to the extent that fans expect.

    It's the classes in their 2nd or 3rd seasons that tend to offer the most "new impact" from the previous season.
     
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  9. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Agree and I think where we should expect significant help is from our guys on the roster who are now in their 2nd, 3rd and fourth year. I find it very unlikely we would have 2 rookies starting on the o-line like an earlier poster suggested. That would be shocking for a team of our caliber to have that happen.
     
  10. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Super Moderator Moderator

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    Which is why IMO 3 iOL were drafted last year.
     
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  11. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    The Packers currently have enough holes that there will need to be one or two rookies that make a significant impact if the team is going to improve.
     
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  12. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    It is VERY TOUGH to improve from a team that has won 13 games back to back and made it to the NFCCG...period. Let alone expect rookies to do that for you.

    What I'm about to say is NOT a defense or conveying a concept of ignoring CB or iDL or even slot or such heading into the draft - which I feel is precisely why they have done some of the moves they did.

    BUT, one could easily argue that for 2021, there are only two glaring massive holes GB need answered: Center and a Tackle position.

    No one is advocating for King to be our CB2 -but signing him does put a small bandaid on a cut that truly needs stitches, bleeding may be stopped but isn't the proper treatment.

    Same for iDL - by not releasing Lowry and re-signing Lancaster CHEAP, same thing...no one is going to say this is by any means the best was to fix it, but it is like putting bondo on your quarter panel of your truck...it's a fix, and will hide issues, but long term start planning/saving for a new quarter panel if you want to properly fix.

    While GB, like any team, has a list of things that need improved (either through draft, elevated play from the roster within, or at this point cheap FA signings post draft).

    Outside of the two MAJOR issues of center and tackle my personal list of positions be nice if the draft helped in the present or into 2022 on:

    - Getting a better option for CB2 over King either in the present or projected into 2022.
    - Increase play from Sullivan OR someone else taking over his role.
    - Sweep/Motion role type WR/RB (could be same player as below)
    - Pure/True slot type WR (could be same player as above)
    - Returner
    - WR future beyond 2021 (the above 3 may also assist in this)
    - Defensive trench assistance, be nice to make Lowry and Lancaster no longer needed PLEASE.
    - EDGE/OLB #3 option towards 2022...Gary needs more play time and both Smiths I doubt see 2022...
    - Depth at ILB at minimum. Summers and Burks will be gone...
    - RB3
     
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  13. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I think you’re making assumptions that some of our younger players already on the roster are not going to make significant improvement. I think it also depends on your definition of “significant impact”.
     
  14. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I don't believe the few "young" guys the team has at corner, dline, and OT are capable of becoming good, every down starters. Heck, the current starter at CB next to Alexander needs to be replaced, let alone the nickel back.
     
  15. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I think tackle is a need early in the season but won't really be by mid season (but I'd still be okay with a first round OT). I think center will be fine. The two areas lost in need of help are corner (this is not really debatable, they have one bad starter and an unknown playing nickel and the bad starter is on a one-year deal) and the other position of need is DE (many are forgetting the team's issues stopping the run and for all those clamoring for an ILB, he's gonna need to be a beast cause guards are gonna be on him all day).

    On offense, I'd be fine with Toney, Moore, Bateman at receiver because while the offense was elite last year, the Packers did suffer large periods of not being able to score against decent defenses. My preferred options on the first round would be CB, OT, DE, WR (obviously dependent on who's available).
     
  16. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Sorry if you think presently in 2021 if we entered the season as we sit that CB/DB positions are of greater need than Center and Tackle...we are so far apart I cannot even fathom where to start.

    That said if Greg Newsome falls to us or we trade up for him, I think we both will be freaking ecstatic with this draft regardless of how all the other picks play out.
     
  17. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Summed up very well. I would only add to your list that I believe another developmental safety needs to be brought in to the mix.
     
  18. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I tend to look at team building like this: which positions are going to cost the most in free agency if the team has a hole that needs to be filled? If the Packers draft a center and then need to sign a CB, it's going to be FAR more expensive to get a good corner than it would be to draft a good corner and sign a good center. It's one of the primary reasons I'm fine with not drafting an elite ILB, you can always sign a decent ILB for less than any other position on defense outside of run-stopping DT. Team building has to look at the future and just assuming all your picks are going to start isn't realistic, so good GMs need to be looking at years in the future and planning on where they might need to sign free agents. I'd prefer to need free agents at cheap positions instead of expensive ones.

    Plus, the Packers currently have a REALLY good center on the roster in Jenkins if they need to move him there. Additionally, offenses only start ONE center while defenses will occasionally field 4 or 5 corners, so finding a guy that can play center, or guard if the Packers move Jenkins to center, is much easier because there are 32 starting centers in the NFL while there are, basically, 96 starting corners; much lower demand for centers compared to corners.

    Now, tackle is important which is why I said I would be fine with an OT in the first round (it was second on my list of preferred positions in round 1) so I'm not sure how we're that far apart on OT.
     
  19. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Wouldn't disagree, but this growth might also come from in house as Scott and Black continue to progress...but I think folks might see a Safety for sure added in the draft, especially one that appears ready and able to drop into slot man if needed.
     
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  20. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Oh I don’t know about this. CB and OT are probably pretty close. I really don’t think C is that much of a need. Patrick is a capable player. I think it’s a position that could/should be addressed, and if they took Creed Humphrey early I’d be more than fine with it, but I don’t really think it’s a huge need. Patrick is good enough to adequately get by for a year or two.
     
  21. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    At CB we at least have full season experienced guys...we do not have a guy with even a quarter of a regular season starting experience for Center and at the vacant Tackle position till Bahk is back.
     
  22. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I could argue that Lucas Patrick and Billy Turner are better answers at center and tackle than Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan are at CB and NB.
     
  23. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    This could be a fair argument. Everyone knows I was a fan of even trading Linsley last year for something and starting Patrick - it was honestly why I felt we extended him like we did, get a cheap peak at what you have before maybe signing him longer and more lucrative.

    Again though Turner can be a Tackle option once Bahk comes back, but we presently don't have the other Tackle till then IMO.
     
  24. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I was talking about guys like Hollman, Samuels, Ento and Russell.
     
  25. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Sure King and the others behind him have experience, but they’re still not good. Experience at playing poorly doesn’t mean a lot to me.

    Lucas Patrick hadn’t started a lot, but every time he’s played he’s been better at his position than Sullivan has at it. I think we can cobble the OL enough before Bakh gets back easier than we can the CB position. We are bad there.
     
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