Post Adams Trade - The Mock Draft

tynimiller

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So I ran over 40 simulations today at The Draft Network and about a dozen at PFF's mock generator. Zero science of course, but was curious what would happen.

As projected I strongly feel now at 22 contrary to 28 we are guaranteed one of the top 5 wide outs in the draft IMO that fit our need; London, Williams, Wilson, Olave and Burks. It would seem to be that order as well is at least predicted the most...again nothing of course sceintific...I did cross check this with many of the newest mocks out there by the "pros" at this and it jives that many feel it is Olave, Burks or Jahan Dotson that we will grab. I didn't mind Dotson at 28 IF the other 5 were gone, but my hunch is if the 5 are gone by 22 that means there is a STUD defender at EDGE or DL that I'd take instead.

Enough talk here is my recent mock and some in depth reasons or explanations, while a few are brief:

Round 1 Pick #22 - Chris Olave WR Ohio State
Once I settled in after all the simulations to see "odds" this exact mock threw two QBs in the first 20 picks which I think given NFL history is likely (Willis and Pickett). That actually placed before me a pick between Olave, Burks, George Karlaftis and Devonte Wyatt. Personally I just don't think Wyatt makes it here so it was tough for me to look past Karlaftis and his freak hybrid ability to be OLB or down inside...in the end I add Olave, and honestly I'm so split between he and Burks that I truly went Olave purely from a route running standpoint - he is more of a craftsman there, but doesn't IMO have the YAC ability of Burks (dude is a beast!).

Round 1 Pick #28 - Perrion Winfrey iDL Oklahoma
This pick honestly came down between going Daxton Hill or a choice between Perrion and Leal along the DL. In the end I chose the guy I feel screams another Kenny Clark - with maybe a tick less presence against the run, however don't say he isn't good there because he is. His explosive burst was on display at the combine and back at the senior bowl (MVP). Day 1 contributor without a doubt in my mind. Dude is a JUCO transfer story that is worth telling and I'm excited to see it continue in Green Bay.

Round 2 Pick #53 - Travis Jones iDL UConn
Folks are going to roll their eyes...well some might...others are gonna nod their heads and smile, something Kenny Clark, Lowry and Barry will be as well. DL is a WEAK spot on this roster, and when I see Tariq Woolen (CB) athletic freak go at 52 and early seeing my two top edges entering the 2nd in Mafe and Ebiketie gone...not having an OT high on my board and same with safeties I simply go as high up my board to a point that intersects a weak/need and we double dip on the defensive trench. A bigger body than Perrion at 325lbs, Jones is a BEAST of a bull with agility for days that shocks you. A once was weakness is instantly revamped and DEEP...honestly Heflin and Slaton should both be nervous....shoot even Lowry maybe by year's end.

Round 2 Pick #59 - George Pickens WR Georgia
So I struggled with this pick...Christian Watson would be my dream double dip if we did, but that joker is NOT making it this far and didn't. I do envision a scenario where this spot could hold David Bell, George Pickens and Metchie as the top three available WRs...I also know solid chance of my board showing a SOLID CB or EDGE...which it did in Enagbare and Drake Jackson both there at Edge, plus Derion Kendrick CB was there. In the end Pickens there is the potential steal of the draft, and despite his injury history I truly think may end up someday being one of the top 5 WRs from this class if healthy and stays on the field. As if double dipping at DL wasn't enough to make folks heads spin, I have Gute doing it again with WR.

Round 3 Pick #92 - Jeremy Ruckert TE Ohio State
I've shared enough times on him by now won't type up anymore. He starts opposite Lewis day 1 and is a 50/50 odds to make it to this pick IMO.

Round 4 Pick #132 - Akayleb Evans CB Missouri
Day 3 starts and Gute picks a position that is simply tough to have enough of, and that is CBs. Rasul is said to be signing...so is this really necessary...well Evans 100% has experience in the slot and outside so (knock on wood) we see another injury or Rasul drops down to earth and isn't what he was last year, Evans has a good shot at being a contributor early. A 6'2' nearly 200lb frame running a 4.46 doesn't grow on trees...and research this young man and you will find a high character man that Green Bay will no doubt love and embrace.

Round 4 Pick #140 - Kellen Diesch OT Arizona State
Some will say this is at least a round early on Kellen, I 100% disagree and nab one of my favorite mid-round tackle with RT starting year one potential IMO. Slightly shorter arms then I would like but athleticism is there and potential is packed into his entire frame. A position group that minimum needed depth may have just found the swing tackle back up or more.

Round 5 Pick #171 - Yusuf Corker S Kentucky
A guy I've not really touched on, but am a fan of. Came to KY as a four star receiver and DB, and went DB and has started 37 of the last contests while there. Most frequently used as a boundary safety in KY two high shells, he also however was called in their late rotation to play the high post and did so successfully. He isn't a guy out the gate that will have amazing coverage ability, but is an excellent run supporter and does exceedingly well reading and attacking run plays - with ability to make the tackles to boot.

Round 7 Pick #228 - Ali Fayad EDGE/OLB Western Michigan
A raw, but HIGHLY productive OLB prospect from Western Michigan that if you put on his tape you at times don't understand how he gets it done, he just simply does. He leaves WMU with nearly 30 sacks to his name and 53 TFLs across his career. He has exceptional strength but isn't a speedy or explosive EDGE, technique and strength moves while also setting the run edge will be how he sees the field early if he does while he is coached up and rush packages are added.

Round 7 Pick #249 - Christopher Allen EDGE/OLB Alabama
His break out year was 2020 where he produced and was a starter...2021 he was being pushed hard by others, and then got hurt against Miami early in the year. He is a Day 3 flyer that you hope is more that 2020 guy that illustrated serious potential to be an excellent OLB depth at the next level as his floor with sky the limit ceiling. Worth the gamble.

Round 7 Pick #258 - Austin Deculus OT LSU
I've also wrote about this guy a lot. Doesn't get the attention he deserves and could shock folks at how well he does at the next level after now holding the most career starts by anyone at LSU. 34.375 inch arms and a RAS of 8.27....he is the epitome of potential you look for in the 7th.


There she be...and this is probably one I'll sit on for a while and not do any mocks for a bit. I'm busy trying to refine my boards and really separate clusters into actual dividing lines atm.
 

Sanguine camper

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Picking a WR in round one would shed light on how long Gute thinks Rodgers will play. If AR leaves after one more year, picking a WR makes some sense. If AR plays 2 or 3 seasons, then it makes more sense to wait for round 2 since it takes a long time for a WR to gain AR's trust.
 
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Picking a WR in round one would shed light on how long Gute thinks Rodgers will play. If AR leaves after one more year, picking a WR makes some sense. If AR plays 2 or 3 seasons, then it makes more sense to wait for round 2 since it takes a long time for a WR to gain AR's trust.
Aaron Rodgers is a hard one to pin.

Man I just think communication is the key. I think keeping him in the loop as to erase any concerns he might have is paramount. Then also giving him a general idea of our plan through either FA or the draft (or both).

I really feel like Aaron will embrace a WR much more if he felt like our staff takes the opportunity to involve him in discussions. I really don’t think he’ll expect a particular player (other than to relay observations about a possible good fit)
I also believe Aaron will learn to trust a guy like Olave or Burks pretty fast when he witnesses how they go about their business. That goes for Landry or another veteran that we might take a stab at.
Yes. I totally understand your concern. I think you might be surprised how quickly he’ll bond with a new player IF he feels like he is privy to the process.
 
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tynimiller

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Aaron Rodgers is a hard one to pin.

Man I just think communication is the key. I think keeping him in the loop as to erase any concerns he might have is paramount. Then also giving him a general idea of our plan through either FA or the draft (or both).

I really feel like Aaron will embrace a WR much more if he felt like our staff takes the opportunity to involve him in discussions. I really don’t think he’ll expect a particular player (other than to relay observations about a possible good fit)
I also believe Aaron will learn to trust a guy like Olave or Burks pretty fast when he witnesses how they go about their business. That goes for Landry or another veteran that we might take a stab at.
Yes. I totally understand your concern. I think you might be surprised how quickly he’ll bond with a new player IF he feels like he is privy to the process.

Like you this is how I see it, from outside looking in.

Keep him in loop, and I feel a motivated Rodgers again brewing….all the criticism, failure and I suspect wanting to prove he and Adam had immense success more because of him than Davante is in his mind somewhere
 
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Like you this is how I see it, from outside looking in.

Keep him in loop, and I feel a motivated Rodgers again brewing….all the criticism, failure and I suspect wanting to prove he and Adam had immense success more because of him than Davante is in his mind somewhere
Yes. Adams departure will turn into a contest. All eyes are on #12 and #17 to see who comes out on top. It’s going to be one of the top headlines as the season progresses.

Was it the Jockey or the Thoroughbred that created the magic? I’m going #12

I hope you are correct. If through that motivation not to be “found out” that Rodgers finds any semblance of the last 2 seasons in the passing game? I fully see us being a major contender as a top seed.
Except this time we will have J’aire and a possible Difference maker from the Draft in the mix in Defense. I fully expect to crack the top #10 on scoring D this season
 
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wist43

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Rd1, pick 22
Logan Hall, DL, Houston

I think Hall has more long term upside than Winfrey. He's going to put on more weight and develop more pass rush moves.

Might not be there at 22.

Rd1, pick 28
Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

Big receiver wit top end speed. Would prefer Williams, but we would have to trade up for Williams - Watson should be there at 28.

--------------------

Don't want DT Jones in the second... too early for him. He'll be a long term plug in the middle of the line, but he'll never have the movement skills and athleticism to be much more than that.

Haven't looked at a lot of guys yet though.... long way to go.

Saw Ojabo tore his Achilles - too bad, he's a good player. Take a flyer on him late and stash him??
 
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tynimiller

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Rd1, pick 22
Logan Hall, DL, Houston

I think Hall has more long term upside than Winfrey. He's going to put on more weight and develop more pass rush moves.

Might not be there at 22.

Rd1, pick 28
Christian Watson, WR, NDSU

Big receiver wit top end speed. Would prefer Williams, but we would have to trade up for Williams - Watson should be there at 28.

--------------------

Don't want DT Jones in the second... too early for him. He'll be a long term plug in the middle of the line, but he'll never have the movement skills and athleticism to be much more than that.

Haven't looked at a lot of guys yet though.... long way to go.

Saw Ojabo tore his Achilles - too bad, he's a good player. Take a flyer on him late and stash him??

Hall is a 4-3 guy I’d want but not for a 3-4 IMO, nor do I believe he is going that early personally - time will tell.

Your Jones comments mean you’ve watch very little tape, or seen just how athletic he is both in games or measurable.

9.65 RAS, put up solid film and stats at Senior bowl and showed out with more burst and agility than a 325 should be able to. He isn’t Jordan Davis freak level but to say he isn’t athletic or will never have the movements skills I don’t see where this could be derived from.

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I would be leaning towards Gute grabbing big bodies for the trenches in round one and the WR/TE types on day 2. Unless a DB falls into the 20's that was expected to be top 15 on some boards. I also could see him dropping back from #28 into round 2 and moving up a few slots with the other. Maybe swing for both of Baltimore's first two picks with our 3rd round as a clincher
 

wist43

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Hall is a 4-3 guy I’d want but not for a 3-4 IMO, nor do I believe he is going that early personally - time will tell.

Your Jones comments mean you’ve watch very little tape, or seen just how athletic he is both in games or measurable.

9.65 RAS, put up solid film and stats at Senior bowl and showed out with more burst and agility than a 325 should be able to. He isn’t Jordan Davis freak level but to say he isn’t athletic or will never have the movements skills I don’t see where this could be derived from.

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I've watched Jones's tape and his Seniorbowl workouts... he's okay, but don't see him in the 2nd round. I have him as a 3rd/4th rounder.

Hall on the other hand is rising up draft boards. I looked at 6 mock drafts - 3 of them had him in the 1st round at 28, 28, and 29. I think he goes higher than that.

Scheme doesn't matter as much as it used to. 3-4 or 4-3 are not the dominant alignments they once were.

Teams are lining up in 3-3, 2-4, and 4-2 nickel as much or more than in those bases anyway.

Hall looks like he could develop into a Chris Jones type. He has super strong hands, a powerful shock, and can get movement on the bull rush. He can get too high at times, but the tools are there to be a beast.

I'll be surprised if he's not picked before 28. If we want him, we'll have to take him at 22 - and I'm not sure he lasts that long.
 
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I am of the opinion that we should trade for at least 1, preferably 2 wide receivers to replace Adams. Of course, that depends on what we would have to give up, but I think we should listen if we only have to give up 1 or 2 draft picks, which were probably going to be spent on a receiver anyway, especially if it is the draft picks we obtained in the Adams trade.

I think trading for receivers is the best option because with the draft, you don't know what you are getting, they are going to take time to develop (which is not good for a team going "all in" and trying to win right now) and the options on the current free agency market are either injury-prone or great in the slot, short/mid yardage situations, but not great deep threats/downfield options.

My favorite options would be DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Brandin Cooks.
 
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tynimiller

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I've watched Jones's tape and his Seniorbowl workouts... he's okay, but don't see him in the 2nd round. I have him as a 3rd/4th rounder.

Hall on the other hand is rising up draft boards. I looked at 6 mock drafts - 3 of them had him in the 1st round at 28, 28, and 29. I think he goes higher than that.

Scheme doesn't matter as much as it used to. 3-4 or 4-3 are not the dominant alignments they once were.

Teams are lining up in 3-3, 2-4, and 4-2 nickel as much or more than in those bases anyway.

Hall looks like he could develop into a Chris Jones type. He has super strong hands, a powerful shock, and can get movement on the bull rush. He can get too high at times, but the tools are there to be a beast.

I'll be surprised if he's not picked before 28. If we want him, we'll have to take him at 22 - and I'm not sure he lasts that long.

Don’t see him in the second round is different than what you initially said. Having as a 3rd grade is different and I can respect disagreement on such a thing…but one also has to them elaborate is that a 3rd round grade on the draft class or caliber of player?

What I mean is I arguably don’t see a single QB in this draft class I have as a First Round grade, yet I expect at least two to go.

Love the discussion and I’m not one that doesn’t like Hall I just disagree on him somewhat in how high you see him going.
 

wist43

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Don’t see him in the second round is different than what you initially said. Having as a 3rd grade is different and I can respect disagreement on such a thing…but one also has to them elaborate is that a 3rd round grade on the draft class or caliber of player?

What I mean is I arguably don’t see a single QB in this draft class I have as a First Round grade, yet I expect at least two to go.

Love the discussion and I’m not one that doesn’t like Hall I just disagree on him somewhat in how high you see him going.
I said I didn't want him in the second... I didn't say anything different.

Anyway, I agree we need help on DL... Jones would certainly be an upgrade over Lancaster.

Haven't looked at a lot of guys yet, but guys l like so far, regardless of where they're slotted...

Jameson Williams, WR (I could see trading up for him)
Boye Mafe, Edge
Nic Bonitto, Edge
Christian Watson, WR
Lacitus Smith, C/G
 
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tynimiller

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I said I didn't want him in the second... I didn't say anything different.

Anyway, I agree we need help on DL... Jones would certainly be an upgrade over Lancaster.

Haven't looked at a lot of guys yet, but guys l like so far, regardless of where they're slotted...

Jameson Williams, WR (I could see trading up for him)
Boye Mafe, Edge
Nic Bonitto, Edge
Christian Watson, WR
Lacitus Smith, C/G

Not true you spoke on his movement and athleticism as if inadequate and even less than should be for his position and performance.


Yeah Boye is a guy I’ve been posting about in the draft section for a while and can still remember pre bowls and senior bowl that he was assumed to be a day 2 guy, now he is flirting with being gone by day 1 close.
 

wist43

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Not true you spoke on his movement and athleticism as if inadequate and even less than should be for his position and performance.


Yeah Boye is a guy I’ve been posting about in the draft section for a while and can still remember pre bowls and senior bowl that he was assumed to be a day 2 guy, now he is flirting with being gone by day 1 close.
My view on Jones hasn't change. Drills notwithstanding, I don't think he's athletic enough. He's a bullrusher.

He's not a gap penetrator, and he doesn't disengage.

Guys like that, depending on other intangibles, are round 3/4 for me.
 

wist43

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3 guys that I've looked today that I'd be comfortable with...

Rd1, pick 22 - Devonte Wyatt, DL, UGA

Rd1, pick 28 - George Pickens, WR, UGA

Rd2, pick 53 - Max Mitchell, OT, UL
 

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