$3.5 mil/yr. would place Guion 26th. among current DT contracts.
http://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-tackle/
While the above link is headed "3-4 Defensive Tackle Contracts", it would appear to include all DTs. The 4-3 list is identical to the the 3-4 list.
It should also be noted there are several very good tackles further down the list who are playing on cheap rookie-scale deals.
About half the league plays 3-4. That adds up to about 48 starting DT spots. Back of the envelope, ******* $3.5 mil as the 26th. spot, that kind of deal would place Guion at the 46th. percentile, or slightly below average for a starting DT.
According to the following link, his 50% snap count would be ranked 34th. among those categorized as "DT" but 2nd. among those categorized as "NT". He plays mostly 1 tech in base and some 3 tech in nickel as opposed to a true 0 tech NT. Further, the Packers alignments and personnel combos this season often resemble 4-3 hybrids as much as a 3-4 alignments. Given how he's used and the type of player who might replace him, he's best considered among the 4-3 DTs rather than among the true 0 tech NTs who are expected to shed and cover 2 gaps.
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-defensive-snap-count-stats/2014/
Discounting the early games before Guion found his sea legs, coming off the hamstring and no work until the last preseeason week, I'd characterize his play as somewhat inconsistent, but generally in the "adequate" category.
So, would $3.5 mil per year be too much? Maybe a bit. But the alternatives need to be considered.
- The fact the Packers are talking long term deal with Guion indicates Raji is done in Green Bay. Performance issues compounded by a serious injury should be sufficient cause to move on.
- The bench guys don't fit the bill. Pennel plays stiff and high; Boyd gets pushed around inside; Robinson ended up on IR with an unexplored development curve.
- There's free agency, but the Packers generally subscribe to the "devil you know is better than the one you don't" philosophy, which has
some merit.
- Free agency precedes the draft; who might be available in the draft and whether a selection might yield better play in week 1 is a crap shoot.
- Guion will be 28 next season and has been durable.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers come up with $12 mil over 4 years, though I believe it is a position that could stand for some upgrading if the right guy shows up in the draft. In the end, you have to fish or cut bait before the draft comes around, and frankly the DE position needs an upgrade more acutely. Datone Jones is looking more and more like a rotational player.