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Packers working on extension with Guion

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Jan 1, 2015.

  1. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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  2. bubba

    bubba Cheesehead

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    This guy has been a pleasant surprise this year. Im all for a contract extension for him. He also loves it here and wants to stay. I also think they could keep Raji one more year for very cheap.
     
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  3. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    If Raji is willing to come back for near vet minimum for D-line depth I would have no problem with that, but I would guess some team is willing to give him a chance to start based on his past rep. Doubt he will get that opportunity here anymore.
     
  4. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Guion has been a nice addition, the Packers should absolutely re-sign him.
     
  5. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

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    Hope he can be had for a short deal. 2 years or something. Haven't seen enough of this new and improved Letroy to invest in anything long-term.
     
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  6. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    I'm pretty sure they would go for a two-year deal at a level somewhat above the minimum. Raji should absolutely be re-signed as we still don't have depth behind Guion. We're lucky he has stayed healthy all season. Raji's 2014 deal was 1 year for the minimum so there is absolutely no reason any team anywhere would pay him more than that again, especially coming off of a season-ending injury.
     
  7. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Raji's 2014 deal wasn't a league minimum, it was for 4M. I agree that he shouldn't expect much more than minimum from anyone this year, but somewhere else may be able to offer him a shot at being a starter, something we may not necessarily be able to do.
     
  8. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    Well last year Raji tested the market and came running back. I don't think that after not playing an entire season all the sudden other teams are gonna line up to give him some great deal. I agree that a deal like last years would be too much.
     
  9. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Oh I agree, he's not going to make much at all. I just think it's possible some team may look at him as a cheap starting option, where I think here he's going to be clearly behind Guion at NT and probably won't play at DE anymore.

    He didn't have to test the market last year, he could have accepted the $8M a season and $20M guaranteed that he had received 6 months before that, especially after he said he was sure the Packers would "do right" with him in contract talks. Well, they tried, BJ.

    Just a catastrophic roll of the dice by Raji and his agent. He'll be lucky to make $8M more in his career now.
     
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  10. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    Imo, Guion might be offered something like a 7M two year package that has some LTBE incentives in it bringing it to 7M. I suspect that someone will whisper in Raji's agent's ear that we won't offer anything more than 1m a year and he may want to look around for further employment.
     
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  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Guion has been an important addition this season because of Raji´s injury but no way the Packers should pay him $3.5 million a year.
     
  12. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I would guess they'll need to be somewhere in that ballpark to persuade him from going out and testing free agency.
     
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Well, if he´s asking for that kind of money I was him all the best in free agency.
     
  14. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Raji has never consistently been a good NT in the 3-4 and I think the best move for him would be to go to a 4-3 team where he can rush the passer like he wants to. He'll never be a great NT in a 3-4 but there's a chance he could make something of himself in a 4-3.
     
  15. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    At 337 pounds I don´t see Raji as a good fit for a 4-3 defense.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    $3.5 mil/yr. would place Guion 26th. among current DT contracts.

    http://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-tackle/

    While the above link is headed "3-4 Defensive Tackle Contracts", it would appear to include all DTs. The 4-3 list is identical to the the 3-4 list.

    It should also be noted there are several very good tackles further down the list who are playing on cheap rookie-scale deals.

    About half the league plays 3-4. That adds up to about 48 starting DT spots. Back of the envelope, pegging $3.5 mil as the 26th. spot, that kind of deal would place Guion at the 46th. percentile, or slightly below average for a starting DT.

    According to the following link, his 50% snap count would be ranked 34th. among those categorized as "DT" but 2nd. among those categorized as "NT". He plays mostly 1 tech in base and some 3 tech in nickel as opposed to a true 0 tech NT. Further, the Packers alignments and personnel combos this season often resemble 4-3 hybrids as much as a 3-4 alignments. Given how he's used and the type of player who might replace him, he's best considered among the 4-3 DTs rather than among the true 0 tech NTs who are expected to shed and cover 2 gaps.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-defensive-snap-count-stats/2014/

    Discounting the early games before Guion found his sea legs, coming off the hamstring and no work until the last preseeason week, I'd characterize his play as somewhat inconsistent, but generally in the "adequate" category.

    So, would $3.5 mil per year be too much? Maybe a bit. But the alternatives need to be considered.

    - The fact the Packers are talking long term deal with Guion indicates Raji is done in Green Bay. Performance issues compounded by a serious injury should be sufficient cause to move on.

    - The bench guys don't fit the bill. Pennel plays stiff and high; Boyd gets pushed around inside; Robinson ended up on IR with an unexplored development curve.

    - There's free agency, but the Packers generally subscribe to the "devil you know is better than the one you don't" philosophy, which has some merit.

    - Free agency precedes the draft; who might be available in the draft and whether a selection might yield better play in week 1 is a crap shoot.

    - Guion will be 28 next season and has been durable.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers come up with $12 mil over 4 years, though I believe it is a position that could stand for some upgrading if the right guy shows up in the draft. In the end, you have to fish or cut bait before the draft comes around, and frankly the DE position needs an upgrade more acutely. Datone Jones is looking more and more like a rotational player.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2015
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  17. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Right. His best fit is as a 1-tech NT which is what the Packers are mostly playing these days with Guion. He never was a good 0-tech shed-and-tackle guy.
     
  18. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

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    If we could secure Guion and Raji both for a reasonable price, I'd feel good enough about the position to consider it a "lower priority" come draft day. Love me some flexibility on draft day. Still a couple guys I'd be happy to snag, but it's nice to not feel that it's a need that must be addressed... e.g. ILB :cautious:
     
  19. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    It's a myth that Raji never had opportunities to rush the passer in his defensive role here.

    His role was similar in 2009 and 2010 to what it was in 2012 and 2013, and he was far better then at generating a pass rush. I'm not sure NT would have been the answer either as was actually a very poor statistical 3-4 NT in 2011, despite the Pro Bowl appearance.

    In my opinion, just my opinion, Raji is a guy who has always had all the talent and none of the work ethic. I think after his first couple seasons he thought he could just go through the motions and always get by on his reputation and skill set. It's a harsh explanation, but I can't think of any other one for how a very naturally talented 3-4 NT could be so unproductive on the field.
     
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  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    If Thompson thonks Guion should be the starting NT going forward he will probably offer a deal like that. I'm not sure though I want him to be the permanent starter at the nose.
     
  21. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I agree with you. He's talented, he lacks motivation to be great. The drop off seen from his rookie year to last year was pretty obvious. I think he "played" hard 5 snaps or less per game. He was beaten, one on one it seemed by anyone they lined up in front of him and if you put 2 guys on him, he was run right off the line.
     
  22. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I think they'll sign him as the putative starter for next season with the associated money.

    If a bona fide NT of some promise drops to us in the draft, then worst case Guion gets rotation snaps at nose, 3 tech in nickel and at DE in base. It's not like he couldn't step over Boyd and Jones on the depth chart at 5-tech...he is after all a better pass rusher than run stopper and there's not much to recommend those other guys at this point.

    I'm fairly luke warm on Guion as a player, but given he's the second best player in a fairly weak DL group he's likely to earn enough snaps to earn his pay for the 2015 season anyway.
     
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  23. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Gilbert Brown was bigger and did pretty well in a 4-3. Marcell Dareus is a very good 4-3 DT for the Bills and he weighs 320. Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei are both 310+ and are very good for Carolina. Pretty sure Raji could cut 20lbs if he wanted to. Plus, the guy was known for his exceptional quickness at his size coming out of college so he might do well in a scheme that doesn't want him to take on blocks.
     
  24. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Raji hasn't shown any of the work ethic necessary to pull of such a move.
     
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  25. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I'm just saying he's proven that he can't play NT in a 3-4 well so he might as well go to a 4-3 and see if he's any better at that.
     

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