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Packers at Texans (Sun, 10/25 - 1pm)

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by XPack, Oct 19, 2020.

  1. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    So, let's pretend last game never happened.

    Texans are 3rd in their division 1-5 having lost to Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings and Titans (last game) with their only win coming against Jaguars (who are also 1-5 and sit below Texans at 4th place in their division).

    Passing: Watson is a good and he has proper WRs in Fuller and Cooks plus Cobb slotting in nicely.
    Running: Nothing to mention. They suck.
    Defence: Take JJ Watt away and it sucks big time. No other pass rushers, weak secondary.

    My 2 cents:

    Rodgers should have a good comeback game, provided the line handles JJ Watt.
    After what Derrick Henry did, our RB duo should have some joy.
    If our CBs have a good game, this should be a good win for us.
     
  2. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    This game I was VERY worried about before the season, Houston has not grown into the team I thought they were going to be.

    That said, I'm still as worried as I was for TB....which Lordy I pray we don't drop an egg like we did there basically. Houston is a better than 1-5 team, but not a better team than GB is if we play like we are.

    Houston will put up at minimum 20 or so against our defense IMO...I'd argue we will need to score somewhere flirting with 30 to win.
     
  3. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    They have a good O-Line?
     
  4. Pugger

    Pugger Cheesehead

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  5. Tminus6453

    Tminus6453 Cheesehead

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    Packers are only a -3.5 favorite.... i guess Vegas isnt impressed with our fast start anymore
     
  6. Houston's defense is 30th. in yards surrendered @ 423 per game and 26th. in points surrendered @ 30.3.

    The Packer offense had previously feasted on sub-par to outfight bad defenses such as this one.

    It would be pretty surprising and disappointing to not see a robust offensive bounce back against these guys.

    If there was only one offensive takeaway from that Tampa a*s kicking it would be Rodgers getting knocked down all day when he didn't manage to flush. Houston does rank tied for 8th. in sacks for what that's worth but whatever consistent pressure they've brought has yielded only 1 INT.
     
  7. PackerfaninCarolina

    PackerfaninCarolina Cheesehead

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    Here's the one danger to this game:

    Team is coming off a bad game and need to get the psychological hangover out of their system. Plus the pressure is on to stay ahead of Chicago.

    Houston has already effectively put their season as a lost cause, and this game would be like their SB. Though they lost to Minny, they played some good opponents like Pittsburgh and Tennessee close on the road, so we cannot take them lightly.

    The good news is they aren't winless so they aren't nearly as desperate as they might be under that circumstance. Still ...

    We gotta get back to getting Tonyan and Sternberger involved here, and also see if we can reopen the lanes for Aaron Jones. Hope Tyler Ervin can come back this game because even if he's not usually getting the touches, he's like that hidden chess piece you can use.
     
  8. So far this year, away teams are 43-47-1 for an 0.478 record. Away teams averaged 0.9 fewer points per game than home teams.

    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_away?range=yearly_2020

    The point differerential was calculated by multipying the MOV (average point differential) by number of games played for each team separately, totalling those figures for all 32 teams, then dividing by the 91 games played. There's rounding going on for each team calculation since the point differentials go down to only one decimal place but that should be close to evening out in the end.

    For comparison, here's the 2019 data:

    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_away?range=yearly_2019

    In 2019, including playoffs and excluding London games and the Super Bowl, away teams were 122-136-1 for a 0.473 record, a neglible difference. To illustate, move one loss and the tie to the win column and you get 0.479, very close to this year.

    Surprisingly, away teams scored only abut 0.1 fewer points per game than their opponents on average.

    A few takeaways:
    • If the only variable from 2019 to 2020 is the absense of crowds, that's worth about 0.8 additional points for the visiting team with a negligible difference in win percentage.
    • Defaulting to the conventional wisdom of allocating 3 points advantage to the home team has not been justified in the past and is less so now. That is borne out by the following web site's calculation, excluding pushes, for the period 2008 - 2018:
    "Home favorites cover the spread 46.25 percent of the time, while road favorites cover a higher percentage of the time at 51.38 percent."

    https://bookies.com/nfl/ats-trends#:~:text=What percent of NFL favorites,the time at 51.38 percent.​
    • The general takeaway would be that when home teams win it is by a slightly closer margin than when they lose though not as pronounced this season. If you accord home teams 3 points worth of spread the difference widens significantly.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 20, 2020
  9. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    One variable, which could be crucial would be to remove divisional opponents. I say this because the quality of the hosting team could be very important and impactful. You'd expect divisional opponents to for the most part wash that out somewhat.

    But take for instance the NFC East this year...should all of their away games really be given the same weight as a team like GB getting a loss in TB or other solid teams squaring off away and losing.

    Love statistic studying and this is surprising even with all games being included. I would have thought it was much more impactful.
     
  10. You can always find exceptions and outliers but the aggregate numbers clearly indicate the home advantage is not what is generally believed.

    Heck, you don't have to look much past the the winning percentages. Road teams this year at 0.478 this season equates to a league average record of 7.65 - 8.35 in a 16 game equivalency. Move 0.35 losses to the win column over 16 games and you've entirely wiped out the home field advantage. Last year was only slightly different.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 20, 2020
  11. Tminus6453

    Tminus6453 Cheesehead

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    I get the whole home/away factors, given the factors the odds makers are only saying the Packers are 6 points better than the Texans, that not a lot considering our records and level of play, excluding last weeks debacle, it wouldnt even surprise me if that number went up between now and Sunday, and im sure Bahk's injury has a bit to do with it also
     
  12. Well, folks who believe 3 points should be accorded to the home team, or 2 1/2 in this case, would say the Packers are a 6 point favorite on a neutral field.

    I wouldn't assume bookmakers accord that much advantage when there is evidence that they should not. They may factor in that the betting public thinks that more often than not to achieve their objective: equal bets on both sides of the proposition with money made off the vig.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 20, 2020
  13. It's probably worth noting 4 of Houston's 5 losses have come against team with an aggregate record of 20-2. They may not be as bad as their record indicates.
     
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  14. Tminus6453

    Tminus6453 Cheesehead

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    But they do factor in 3 points for home field, thats just NFL bookmakers 101...giving 6 points to a 1-5 team when you are going against a 4-1 team as well as the Packers were playin is not a good indicator what they think of this team
     
  15. Or is that they count on people thinking that it is equal to a 6 point spread on a neutral field. If that is the case, which runs counter to the data, in their heart of hearts they actually believe the margin to be narrower. All they want is the bets to even out, or slightly tilted toward the home team because the visitor covers more often. That's professional sports books run by corporations. The guy taking bets at the local tavern, if he still exists, might bet his own book, pushing bets to one side or another, which would not be very smart.
     
  16. Tminus6453

    Tminus6453 Cheesehead

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    Im pretty sure vegas doesnt set odds based on 'their hearts of hearts' or drunks in a bar..lol... sure, they want the bets to be as even as possible, but this tells me they dont think very highly of the Packers after their last game
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2020
  17. PackerfaninCarolina

    PackerfaninCarolina Cheesehead

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    I will say we must use these next three winnable games to get a 3 game lead on the Bears. And we can as long as we just take care of business in Houston, VS Minny and against the injured team in SF.

    I predict this for us

    Packers 30 Texans 24
    Packers 37 Vikings 20
    Packers 24 49ers 21

    And to any delusional farce Bear fans out there... Read this and weep

    Rams 48 Bears 17
    Saints 34 Bears 21
    Titans 33 Bears 28

    Oh yes that's going to happen and I'm going to pile on the Bears when it does
     
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  18. You've missed the point entirely. They think less of the Packers than you think.
     
  19. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    Right now, I don't think much of the Packers either
     
  20. Tminus6453

    Tminus6453 Cheesehead

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    Wow, you finally figured it out..lol,..that was my point from my very first post
     
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  21. Pugger

    Pugger Cheesehead

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    They are trying to get people to place bets.
     
  22. RRyder

    RRyder Cheesehead

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    Houston has been getting favorable spreads all year and its for 2 simple reasons...... They have an offense that looks good on paper and the betting public is still putting money on them. 3.5, and probably 4.5 by kickoff, looks pretty standard.

    In any case its not so much "vegas" as it is the betting public that determines the line. How that goes over peoples heads still is confusing
     
  23. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    anybody else tired of the gambling bit? I remember driving in a car sunday mornings, turn on the radio to hear about all the games coming up. Now it's all about why you should bet a certain way on the games coming up.
     
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  24. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Or which guys you should play on your fantasy team.
     
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  25. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    which is all tied to gambling now
     
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