warhawk said:
I used to bet some with an offshore parlor mostly because I did it with my brother and it gave us a chance to get on the phone and discuss games and which ones we liked.
We would research and review and dig and we won some and lost some.
One source I would use is a site called Johnny Detroit because they have ALL the numbers and stats and info. They use some formula to come up with what they think the line should be so you can gauge which games where they feel the line is off.
I pulled it up for the heck of it to see what they had.
GREEN BAY PACKERS -2 points. Meaning the line was off in their opinion by 5- points being the Bears are favored by 3- and they have the Pack winning by 2.
I found this interesting because most often their adjusted line is pretty close to the Vegas line. When you see a 5- point difference it would mean a game to look at if your betting.
I am sure Phil will never go to this site again if he has in the past. How dare anyone put the Pack up as the favorite against the mighty Bears.
In the mean time........
I'm thinking about calling my brother.
that 5 point differntial is based on stats and numbers. and i think its dead on.
The vegas line however has nothing to do with anything.... They dont care about stats or number... they just care about what people are betting. They are giving that line based on the fact that they think everyone will bet Chicago whips GB's *** because we were bad last year. So by giving them 3.5 points they bait people into taking chicago.
and im taking GB just because of that half point. i think if we do lose it will be close and by a feild goal. but i think we will win so im safe either way.