NFC Playoff picture and thoughts

[Carl]

1st game of the year and some posters said they wont make the playoffs

Many others joined that bandwagon 1 quarter into week 2.

 

[El Guapo]

Some of those forum members don't post much when the team is on a winning streak, but they will be back after the next loss and for sure in the offseason to comment on how we need to get better.

 

[Half Empty]

If they don't bring the Lombardi home, you can count on it.

 

[red4tribe]

I think that this season is important in the sense that we really can't have another one and done in the playoffs. That wouldn't be acceptable at this point. Another one and done would make it four one and dones in six playoff appearences, which, when you have Rodgers as your QB, is unacceptable.

 

[El Guapo]

What does unacceptable mean? You want McCarthy fired? Capers fired? Ted Thompson fired? All of the above?

Many, many rational fans that I talk to aren't happy that we can't win as much in the post season, but are content with having a perennial winning team that has the chance to win it all.

 

[Half Empty]

And many, many are not happy with flaming out quickly. It's all subjective, no way to prove or disprove either.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

I hate the "change the playoff format because one bad team every five years makes the playoffs" people, but my worst nightmare would be the Packers not winning the NFC North and having to play a road playoff game against the 7-9/6-10 New Orleans Saints. The Saints are a bad match up for the Packers.

With that being said, the Packers have a legit shot at finishing 12-4 and being the #1 seed in the playoffs. Lambeau Field is the ideal place to host the Cardinals, Lions, Seahawks, 49er's and Cowboys. Getting warm weather/dome teams in the cold of Lambeau is ideal. A #1 seed would put the Packers in great position to face the Broncos or Patriots in the Super Bowl.

The health of this team will dictate a lot. If the offensive line gets a chance to rest a little and stay healthy, the sky is the limit for this team.

 

[adambr2]

I think that this season is important in the sense that we really can't have another one and done in the playoffs. That wouldn't be acceptable at this point. Another one and done would make it four one and dones in six playoff appearences, which, when you have Rodgers as your QB, is unacceptable.

Well McCarthy is still 6-5 in the playoffs and Rodgers is 5-4, which is fine as far as playoff records go. What is the gold standard, and how much is the Super Bowl worth? Would you rather have 3 recent NFCCG appearances like the 49ers, but no Lombardis? Is it unacceptable for Brady and Bellichick to have no Super Bowl wins in the last 10 years? It's all subjective, really, but I think when you consider all the elements: competitive every year, consistently at the top of the division, have won a Super Bowl within the last few years, I think most would agree we're doing pretty well for ourselves.

 

[red4tribe]

Well McCarthy is still 6-5 in the playoffs and Rodgers is 5-4, which is fine as far as playoff records go. What is the gold standard, and how much is the Super Bowl worth? Would you rather have 3 recent NFCCG appearances like the 49ers, but no Lombardis? Is it unacceptable for Brady and Bellichick to have no Super Bowl wins in the last 10 years? It's all subjective, really, but I think when you consider all the elements: competitive every year, consistently at the top of the division, have won a Super Bowl within the last few years, I think most would agree we're doing pretty well for ourselves.

I cannot speak as a Patriots fan or a Niners fan, but as a Packers fan I feel that if this team continues to be one and done in the playoffs, they are severely underachieving. I think they'll buck that trend this year, but regardless, we haven't gone past the Divisional Round since 2010, which is disappointing. There haven't been any deep playoff runs. The basis of my point is that this team is too talented to be knocked out in the first round again. If it happens again, I think fans will start wondering why the Packers aren't performing in the playoffs.

 

[Half Empty]

Well McCarthy is still 6-5 in the playoffs and Rodgers is 5-4, which is fine as far as playoff records go. What is the gold standard, and how much is the Super Bowl worth? Would you rather have 3 recent NFCCG appearances like the 49ers, but no Lombardis? Is it unacceptable for Brady and Bellichick to have no Super Bowl wins in the last 10 years? It's all subjective, really, but I think when you consider all the elements: competitive every year, consistently at the top of the division, have won a Super Bowl within the last few years, I think most would agree we're doing pretty well for ourselves.

That's really the point - there's no definitive answer, it's how each individual feels. How about Giants fans - two fairly recent SB wins, pretty shabby teams otherwise? I'd be on the 'yes' side regarding the Patriots for the same reason I'm not satisfied with less than a Lombardi right now - expectations. With Brady and Rodgers, one has an excellent chance every year, but at some point, those guys will be gone, and as a fan of either, I'd hate to see their tenures 'wasted'. The 70s and 80s didn't bother me as much as some because I never had SB expectations, just a hope that we could beat certain teams, ambush somebody, or otherwise enjoy winning for a week.

 

[HardRightEdge]

What does unacceptable mean? You want McCarthy fired? Capers fired? Ted Thompson fired? All of the above?

Many, many rational fans that I talk to aren't happy that we can't win as much in the post season, but are content with having a perennial winning team that has the chance to win it all.

Capers, yes, regardless of the season's outcome. I wouldn't call it a "firing". More like going in a different direction. McCarthy said the defense would be BETTER in CAPITAL LETTERS. It isn't. I take him at his word.

 

[Jdeed]

hmm....its going to be very interesting for sure over the next 5 weeks.

So many possibilities right now. two 10-6 teams can miss the playoffs

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[Mklangelo]

Those #4 Broncos in 1997 remain a painful memory.

I think the Pack went into that game overconfident.

 

[Half Empty]

and with a distracted coach and a (OK, maybe 20/20 hindsight) poor roster selection.

 

[ExpatPacker]

As things stand now after Thanksgiving it looks like it will take a 12-4 record to get a first-round bye and home field for at least 1 game.

Eagles could easily end up 12-4. The Cards are a question mark and their schedule for the last 5 games is pretty tough.

Packers have 2 tough games against the Pats and Buffalo on the road. If they lose on Sunday then Detroit takes the NFC North lead again, and they have a pretty easy schedule up until the final regular season game against the Packers.

For the Packers to get home field throughout the playoffs they'll probably have to run the table. If they lose 2 out of the next 5 they could be 2nd in the NFC North and possibly out of the playoffs if one of the losses is to Detroit.

SF is done as far as I'm concerned.

 

[ram29jackson]

Arizona might not even make the playoffs

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine#

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[Carl]

Capers, yes, regardless of the season's outcome. I wouldn't call it a "firing". More like going in a different direction. McCarthy said the defense would be BETTER in CAPITAL LETTERS. It isn't. I take him at his word.

That's just not true that the defense hasn't been better. They've gone from 26.8 points per game allowed to 22.4, which is average at 15th in the league.

They are also 2nd in the league in takeaways with 23. That's one more than the had all of last season.

The defense has been solid or better in 9 of 11 games.

Yeah, they had a couple bad games, but I bet so has nearly every defense in the league. In the games they were not good, players were getting burned and whipped at the line the whole game, which is not an Capers' scheme.

Rush defense has also been bad at times. I say at times because just saying 30th overall doesn't show how it's been fine in 8 games, but 3 awful games killed their ranking.

It's incorrect to say the defense hasn't improved.

 

[Carl]

I've been playing with the playoff machine.

If we lose to Patriots, and the Lions win out until week 17, we can lose to either Atlanta, Tampa, or Buffalo and still win the division by winning week 17.

Both us and the Lions would be 11-5 and we'd win based an whatever tiebreaker is used. If it's coming down to the strength of victory tiebreaker though, that could change based on all the other teams' games.

Anyone else miss having a tie in our record so you never had to figure out any tie breaking scenarios?

EDIT: Found that ESPN had a tiebreaker thing to click on. We win the division to due better record in common games.

 

[red4tribe]

I've been playing with the playoff machine.

If we lose to Patriots, and the Lions win out until week 17, we can lose to either Atlanta, Tampa, or Buffalo and still win the division by winning week 17.

Both us and the Lions would be 11-5 and we'd win based an whatever tiebreaker is used. If it's coming down to the strength of victory tiebreaker though, that could change based on all the other teams' games.

Anyone else miss having a tie in our record so you never had to figure out any tie breaking scenarios?

EDIT: Found that ESPN had a tiebreaker thing to click on. We win the division to due better record in common games.

For all the hype this game is getting, it's probably the one we can most afford to lose the rest of the way out.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That's just not true that the defense hasn't been better. They've gone from 26.8 points per game allowed to 22.4, which is average at 15th in the league.

They are also 2nd in the league in takeaways with 23. That's one more than the had all of last season.

The defense has been solid or better in 9 of 11 games.

Yeah, they had a couple bad games, but I bet so has nearly every defense in the league. In the games they were not good, players were getting burned and whipped at the line the whole game, which is not an Capers' scheme.

Rush defense has also been bad at times. I say at times because just saying 30th overall doesn't show how it's been fine in 8 games, but 3 awful games killed their ranking.

It's incorrect to say the defense hasn't improved.

First of all, I did not say the defense "hasn't been better". I said it's not BETTER in CAPITAL LETTERS. That was McCarthy's pledge.

As far as scoring defense is concerned, you need to strip out the opponents defensive and special team scoring from the total points against. I'm not going to do that for you, and I don't know how much difference it would make, but quoting those numbers down to the 1/10 of a point provides only an illusion of accuracy.

That said, the passer rating against has improved. That seems to be Capers primary benchmark. He likes to measure the defense's rating against vs. the offense's rating. That's kind of low bar when you have Rodgers at QB. Getting rid of Jennings a key contribution to the defensive improvement.

I'd also point out the offense scoring early, often and/or in volume in more games helps the defense. It puts pressure on the opposing offense and takes them out of their game plan. For example, the Packers have been beneficiaries of late game forced passes into coverage this season as opponents press to catch up.

As for the players getting whipped, scheme certainly contributes. Then there's the matter of coaching fundamentals. Capers input, to whatever degree, in player acquisition and retention decisions would be an area of culpability. In the end, he's responsible for defense, and it hasn't been good for 4 years running.

McCarthy has carped in the press about bad tackling at least twice this season. We know where that's directed, to the next step down on the org chart. On each occasion, there was notable improvement in motors, pursuit and gang tackling. Nobody should have to ***** to get expected normal levels of performance.

There have been two games where the Packers D did not force a punt.

In the end, the season will come down to stopping teams in the red zone. Tomorrow's game will give us some indication of what we can expect in this regard against other good offenses that will surely be encountered in the playoffs.

 

[Carl]

For all the hype this game is getting, it's probably the one we can most afford to lose the rest of the way out.

This one or Buffalo. Weird how even though Tampa Bay is awful, that game means more for tiebreakers than tomorrow's game.

 

[Carl]

First of all, I did not say the defense "hasn't been better". I said it's not BETTER in CAPITAL LETTERS. That was McCarthy's pledge.

As far as scoring defense is concerned, you need to strip out the opponents defensive and special team scoring from the total points against. I'm not going to do that for you, and I don't know how much difference it would make, but quoting those numbers down to the 1/10 of a point provides only an illusion of accuracy.

That said, the passer rating against has improved. That seems to be Capers primary benchmark. He likes to measure the defense's rating against vs. the offense's rating. That's kind of low bar when you have Rodgers at QB. Getting rid of Jennings a key contribution to the defensive improvement.

I'd also point out the offense scoring early, often and/or in volume in more games helps the defense. It puts pressure on the opposing offense and takes them out of their game plan. For example, the Packers have been beneficiaries of late game forced passes into coverage this season as opponents press to catch up.

As for the players getting whipped, scheme certainly contributes. Then there's the matter of coaching fundamentals. Capers input, to whatever degree, in player acquisition and retention decisions would be an area of culpability. In the end, he's responsible for defense, and it hasn't been good for 4 years running.

McCarthy has carped in the press about bad tackling at least twice this season. We know where that's directed, to the next step down on the org chart. On each occasion, there was notable improvement in motors, pursuit and gang tackling. Nobody should have to ***** to get expected normal levels of performance.

There have been two games where the Packers D did not force a punt.

In the end, the season will come down to stopping teams in the red zone. Tomorrow's game will give us some indication of what we can expect in this regard against other good offenses that will surely be encountered in the playoffs.

Gotcha. I'm in agreement for the most part. The defense has improved, but to the level McCarthy said it would.

I'm just not getting the part about how scheme contributes to guys getting whipped. The D line was not getting off blocks at all in Seattle, Chicago, and New Orleans. To me that's just guys not getting it done rather than the scheme.

Also, one of the games without a punt they only gave up 17 points and had two picks so that game was solid overall.

 

[red4tribe]

My problem is that the defense has basically been a disappointment five out of the six years Capers has been here. I am no defensive expert, but looking at Capers' past jobs it seems that his defenses lose their effectiveness after the first year or two. I can't help but wonder if it just takes opponents a year or two to figure our Capers and then exploit him. I don't think talent is that lacking. Tramon and Shield are both very solid corners, as well as Hayward and House. Burnett and Hawk are adequate, Matthews and Peppers are playmakers and talent wise, I can only point to a couple of positions on defense where I feel it is truly lacking.

 

[GoPGo]

Capers, yes, regardless of the season's outcome. I wouldn't call it a "firing". More like going in a different direction. McCarthy said the defense would be BETTER in CAPITAL LETTERS. It isn't. I take him at his word.

Last year we allowed 26.8 points per game. This year we are allowing 22.4 points per game. We also already have 4 more INTs than we had all last year. Better? Yes.

 

[ExpatPacker]

The playoff picture looks to me like this. If the Packers lose to the Pats they fall into a 4-way tie with Seattle, Detroit, and Dallas at 8-4. It's a dogfight the rest of the way. If the Packers beat the Pats they have a clear inside path to the NFC North crown, a first-round bye and possibly home-field throughout the playoffs. I don't see Arizona going 13-3. They may not even win their division.