Mel Kiper's Mock(s)

AmishMafia

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So wait....let's say we agree that the draft is loaded with top end wide receiver talent (because we do). That means there is a surplus in comparison to other spots of true talent and vs past draft histories.

So with that in mind I guess I don't understand why the statement "if there was ever a year to pick a WR in the first it is this year"?

If there is a deeper pool why not wait? Or trade back depending how your board is shaking out? Personally, I'm not in the camp of don't draft a WR in the 1st, but depending on whether a WR run occurs or not it may be incredibly misguided grabbing one if your board at #30 still shows 10 or so guys the team is fairly certain can walk in and be a contributor opposite Adams. Now if a heavy WR run happens and your left with 2 or 3...IMO the position is a big enough need to either discuss trade options only a few slots back for minimal risk of losing one of the few remaining or nab the one highest on your board and be happy.

I personally think a run on QBs (minimum 4 exit that first round....would not be shocked at all for a 5th late in the 1st) is flirting with causing some shuffling and that will impact what teams are where and that could change the WR perspective. I also think, or call it a hunch, the defensive concept seeing success in SF illustrates to teams the importance of building a stout defense in today's league...many argue the defensive side of the ball is not as deep as some years and once past the dozen or so top-tier guys the shelf gets bare quickly...for that I am thinking more and more we could see a fairly good collection of WR talent to pick from at #30 with the top tier defensive guys taking more picks than many presently predict.
My hope is that teams think they can get one in the 2nd round so they pass on one in the first. It is also a great year for OTs which has been a positional draught over the last 6 or 7 years (last year or two have been better). But there are a lot of teams, us included, that need OTs. Therefore if teams go on an OT run and other teams go for other positions and delay the WR, there can be a top 15 player at WR sitting at 30. Anytime you can get that kind of value at a position of need, you are having a great draft.
 

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