Jaws rates Rodgers as best QB in league

Tarl Cabot

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If Rodgers doesn't match his astronomical numbers from 2011 will he be in decline?[/quote]

I strongly suspect that we will see a drop in all QBs numbers because this year there will be a pre season for defenses to prepare.
 

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If Rodgers doesn't match his astronomical numbers from 2011 will he be in decline?

I strongly suspect that we will see a drop in all QBs numbers because this year there will be a pre season for defenses to prepare.[/quote]

I think the rules are now heavily weighted towards the offenses. Thompson said so in a recent article. I think Rodgers #'s will come down but not significantly. This is a pass happy league. The trend is upward for offenses.
 

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I strongly suspect that we will see a drop in all QBs numbers because this year there will be a pre season for defenses to prepare.

I think the rules are now heavily weighted towards the offenses. Thompson said so in a recent article. I think Rodgers #'s will come down but not significantly. This is a pass happy league. The trend is upward for offenses.[/quote]
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So much will depend on the defense. If GB is a top 5 D(in points allowed), ARs #s will be down. There will be more ball control and clock management.

If the D plays like last year, AR will be up-top for 60 minutes trying to maintain a lead and his stats will be at the top of the league again.

His comp % is the stat to watch IMO.
 

Tarl Cabot

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I think the rules are now heavily weighted towards the offenses. Thompson said so in a recent article. I think Rodgers #'s will come down but not significantly. This is a pass happy league. The trend is upward for offenses.[/quote]

A lot of it also has to do with how the teams are put together. We had a miserable running game last year and a weak injury riddled defense so I was not surprised that Eli Manning had to throw as much as he did for us to win. I suspect he will have to throw a lot this year too. Also the new kickoff rule has effected the game as well. This pass happy league may be here to stay but I am predicting that there will be a drop in numbers from QBs.
 

Tarl Cabot

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I know right!?? That's criminal in my eyes.

Was he not on the Pro Bowl roster because of SuperBowl or was he just not voted on by fans?

The Pro Bowl is voted on by fans so just like the All Star game in baseball I really don't care much about it because it is who the fans want to see. The All Pro voting is the one that counts and I somewhat give it some credence but it really doesn't matter either unless of course there are contract incentives given if the player makes it.

Aaron Rodgers in 2010 won the most important awards. He won SuperBowl XLV and he was SuperBowl MVP.
 
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All of those ratings are still very high.

I am going to be optimistic and give Peyton Manning and his Doctors the benefit of the doubt that he is healthty and that he will go back to being the QB that we all know and love. I think the question is how long it will take him to get the rust off. I expect him to have a very good season because I think it may take a little while for him to get back in his grove. Then again, I would not be one bit surprised if he has a fantastic season and is hot right from the start.

I guess it is safe to state that we are im agreement on our happiness that he didn't go to San Fransisco 49ers and decided to keep his butt in AFC.

Another sign of Peyton Mannings decline can be seen in YPA, a great indicator of QB success (Arod lead the league last season).

9.2 in 2004
8.3 in 2005
7.9 in 2006
7.8 in 2007
7.2 in 2008
7.9 in 2009
6.9 in 2010
DNP in 2011

6.9 ypa puts him in the 2011 rex grossman category for those wondering where he would stand if that number stayed the same.

More than likely he will struggle next season, most 36 yr old QBs dont get better after sitting out a season... but there is the chance that he pulls a Blanda or a Favre (09 came out of nowhere) and plays at an elite level.
 

Tarl Cabot

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Stats are stats and although they are a good barometer, they really don't provide the entire pucture. Such as did Peyton Mannings
YPA same when Marvin Harrison was playing as oppossed to when he wasn't? How good was the running game when it was as oppossed to when his YPA was low. Another thing to consider is that his numbers declined post injury. Now if the surgery was as successfull as we have heard then I expect him to come back hard. Peyton Manning is a fierce competittor and one of the greatest to ever play the game. We havr to wait and see but I am very optimistic of the year he wil have. Denver Broncos have the second toughest schedule in NFL and it will be rough but they have a great offensive line and an awesome running game. Peyton Manning will be able to find his grove.
 
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Stats are stats and although they are a good barometer, they really don't provide the entire pucture. Such as did Peyton Mannings
YPA same when Marvin Harrison was playing as oppossed to when he wasn't? How good was the running game when it was as oppossed to when his YPA was low. Another thing to consider is that his numbers declined post injury. Now if the surgery was as successfull as we have heard then I expect him to come back hard. Peyton Manning is a fierce competittor and one of the greatest to ever play the game. We havr to wait and see but I am very optimistic of the year he wil have. Denver Broncos have the second toughest schedule in NFL and it will be rough but they have a great offensive line and an awesome running game. Peyton Manning will be able to find his grove.

If you look at the numbers it is clear that Harrison's sharp decline and Mannings are not tied together. While Harrison fell apart rather quickly Manning has had a slow and steady decline in production.

As far as the rushing correlation to YPA in 2010 Indy ranked 29th (depending on how you rank a rushing team you could say it was 27th) which was an historic bad year for Peyton. In 2009, an uptick of a season as far as production from peyton, they ranked dead last 32nd in the league. In 2006 and 2009 Manning posted the same 7.9 YPA while one offense ranked 18th in the league in rushing the other ranked 32nd. I have yet to see any evidence to say YPA and the quality of the run game are related.
 

Tarl Cabot

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Well this is how I look at it and I may be wrong. If you have a bad run game you are going to throw the ball more. The more you throw the ball the chances that your YPA is lower.
 

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Well this is how I loom at it and I may be wrong. If you have a bad run game you are going to throw the ball more. The more you throw the ball the chances that your YPA is lower.

I think the only thing you can conclude from yards per attempt is that there is a swing from season to season that doesn't fit a pattern. Both P. Manning and Drew Brees attempted a lot of passes in 2010. 679 and 658 respectively. Their yards per attempt were 6.92 and 7.02 respectively. Yet Brees has had other years where he had a higher yards per attempt. Take 2011 were it was 8.32 and 2009 where it was 8.54. Another example is Tom Brady who has consistently been at or near the top in yards per attempt. Yet in 2009 he dropped out of the top 10 in this category. Another thing is Philip Rivers is always near the top in this category. He did drop in 2011. But does that equate to him being mentioned in the same breath as the Mannings, Brady and Brees? Not in my estimation.
 

Tarl Cabot

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You are right. Philip Rivers shouldn't be in conversation with The Mannings, Brady, Rodgers and Brees. In my opinion Ben Rothlisberger shouldn't be in the conversation either.
 
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I'm not sure if I fear any QB more than big Ben when a play breaks down.

Rivers and romo are that 2nd tier of QBs. they have great numbers but for many reasons are not champions.

Rivers I haven't paid close enough attention to but romo is Favre jr in many ways. Mcnabb ish in his prime if you will.

Would you rather have Eli or big Ben as your QB? I think it's a fair debate
 

Tarl Cabot

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Would you rather have Eli or big Ben as your QB?! I think it's a fair debate[/quote]

Ben Rothlisberger misreads defenses and causes the play to last longer than it has to a great deal of the time. Eli Manning is brilliant at reading defenses. Eli Manning is tougher and more durable than Ben Rothlisberger. Eli Manning doesn't have the off the field issues that Ben Rothlisberger does. Eli Manning shows up and throws down in SuperBowl and Ben Rothlisberger doesn't. Eli Manning develops his recievers better than Ben Rothlisberger does and Eli Manning is better with the deep ball. It is not even a debate as far as I am concerned. Eli Manning is head and shoulders better than Ben Rothlisberger.

Granted, Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league right now and Tom Brady is number 2 but I take Eli Manning over any of them.
 

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That's fair. I think it's in the top 5 of seasons of all time. Brady has 2, I'll give Peyton and Marino the other 2.

Looking forward to this continuing rivalry between NYG and the pack.


On an era adjusted basis, Rodger's 2011 season was 3rd best all time, wherein he played 44% better (see the ANY/A+ column) than his peer group. Manning was 53% better than peers in 2004, and Marino was 50% better than peers in 1984. Peers is defined by the three year average of all QB's for that stat, the year before, the year of, and the year after. If it is the current year, then the year after is left off as it doesn't exist yet and only two years are used (so the 44% better than average could change once next year transpires).

So that's Manning, Marino, Rodgers, Brady, Young in descending order.

If one wants to use pro-football-reference's proprietary AV (approximate value) calculation (the far right column), Rodger's 2011 season was the 2nd most potent behind Tom Brady's 2007 season and Steve Young rounds out with 3rd, 4th, and 5th most potent seasons.

This is the site I use, I am sure there are others, but I can only assume the Brady 2007 season, the Rodgers 2011 season, the Manning 2004 season, the Young 1994 season, and the Marino 1984 season will be at least in the top 10 using other formulations.
 
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On an era adjusted basis, Rodger's 2011 season was 3rd best all time, wherein he played 44% better (see the ANY/A+ column) than his peer group. Manning was 53% better than peers in 2004, and Marino was 50% better than peers in 1984. Peers is defined by the three year average of all QB's for that stat, the year before, the year of, and the year after. If it is the current year, then the year after is left off as it doesn't exist yet and only two years are used (so the 44% better than average could change once next year transpires).

So that's Manning, Marino, Rodgers, Brady, Young in descending order.

If one wants to use pro-football-reference's proprietary AV (approximate value) calculation (the far right column), Rodger's 2011 season was the 2nd most potent behind Tom Brady's 2007 season and Steve Young rounds out with 3rd, 4th, and 5th most potent seasons.

This is the site I use, I am sure there are others, but I can only assume the Brady 2007 season, the Rodgers 2011 season, the Manning 2004 season, the Young 1994 season, and the Marino 1984 season will be at least in the top 10 using other formulations.

Great post, thx for the link.
 

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I guess I give Rothlisberger more credit because of his winning percentage but I guess that he is benefiting from playing in an easy division as well as Pittsburgh always having one of the top defenses in the league.

How long do you think it will take Peyton to return to his old form if he does at all?
There a good chance he won't. Its rare qb move teams and plays the same.
 

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