Games With Wildcard Implications

[broguy]

That's two big wins in a row, but we've still got a lot of work left to do. And we need some help.

The most straightforward route to the playoffs is obviously through the division, but we're also firmly in the wildcard hunt. In the afternoon games, we want:

• San Diego over Tampa
• Arizona over Washington
• Pittsburgh over New York

All of these games are very losable for the teams ahead of us. If all three of those teams lose we'll almost be in control of our own destiny (we'd still need another Tampa loss). But more importantly, it would put us in position to have a chance at a wildcard even if we lose another.

 

[PackAttack12]

Washington would need to lose another. They would only have 5 losses to our 6. That tie counts as half a win.

 

[broguy]

Washington would need to lose another. They would only have 5 losses to our 6. That tie counts as half a win.

Yeah, but Washington still has to play New York and New York has to play Detroit. If New York loses both of those, we'd have the same number of losses and hold the tiebreaker based on our head-to-head win. If New York only lost one, then we'd have the advantage over whichever team they beat.

Again, this would be dependent on Washington and New York both losing today and the Packers winning out (which would give Detroit another loss).

 

[PackAttack12]

Yeah, but Washington still has to play New York and New York has to play Detroit. If New York loses both of those, we'd have the same number of losses and hold the tiebreaker based on our head-to-head win. If New York only lost one, then we'd have the advantage over whichever team they beat.

Again, this would be dependent on Washington and New York both losing today and the Packers winning out (which would give Detroit another loss).

I just can't see the Giants imploding like that, though I would have no problem if that were to end up being the case and it works to our benefit. Also, New York has to play Dallas as well. I suppose it is possible.

I'm loving the potential wild card scenarios, but I'm not giving up hope on the division just yet and I still hope that the Giants are able to knock the Lions off. I'm hoping for the division first, and if we fall short gladly accept a wild card. Plus our path to catching the Lions is easier than catching the Giants, because we have the advantage of being able to play the Lions again, so we really only need to pick up 1 game on them between now and Week 17 whereas we would need to pick up 2 on the Giants.

It's a shame though because the Lions looked very, very good today defensively against Brees and company.

 

[broguy]

I just can't see the Giants imploding like that, though I would have no problem if that were to end up being the case and it works to our benefit. Also, New York has to play Dallas as well. I suppose it is possible.

I agree. I wouldn't expect them to lose both of those games. My point was just that if the Redskins and Giants lose today and we win out, there is no scenario where we would finish behind both of those teams and the Lions (outside of more ties).

And I agree again that the division is still very much in play, and would be the best case scenario (home field advantage).

 

[PackAttack12]

I agree. I wouldn't expect them to lose both of those games. My point was just that if the Redskins and Giants lose today and we win out, there is no scenario where we would finish behind both of those teams and the Lions (outside of more ties).

Ahhhhhhh. I got you now. Great point.

 

[broguy]

Wildcard hunt update: The Tampa Bay win makes it very likely that we have to win out to make the playoffs. I can't see the Lions losing more than 2 (including the last game of the season against us), and I doubt Tampa Bay will lose 3 more with their schedule. They own the "win percentage in common games" tiebreaker against us because they were 1-1 against Atlanta and we were 0-1. They also beat Seattle and Chicago who are our only other common opponent this season, so no chance to make up ground there.

 

[PackAttack12]

Wildcard hunt update: The Tampa Bay win makes it very likely that we have to win out to make the playoffs. I can't see the Lions losing more than 2 (including the last game of the season against us), and I doubt Tampa Bay will lose 3 more with their schedule. They own the "win percentage in common games" tiebreaker against us because they were 1-1 against Atlanta and we were 0-1. They also beat Seattle and Chicago who are our only other common opponent this season, so no chance to make up ground there.

But since we get Chicago an additional game, that gives us the opportunity to go 3-2 against common opponents, if we beat Seattle, and then if they lose to Dallas, they will be 3-2 as well. Am I thinking about this correctly?

So then the question is who has better strength of victory. Probably them with wins against Atlanta, Seattle, Kansas City.

 

[Raptorman]

Wildcard hunt update: The Tampa Bay win makes it very likely that we have to win out to make the playoffs. I can't see the Lions losing more than 2 (including the last game of the season against us), and I doubt Tampa Bay will lose 3 more with their schedule. They own the "win percentage in common games" tiebreaker against us because they were 1-1 against Atlanta and we were 0-1. They also beat Seattle and Chicago who are our only other common opponent this season, so no chance to make up ground there.

Common opponent only comes into play if there are at least 4 common teams. With 3, you move to the next tiebreaker.

 

[Packerlifer]

With two games yet to be completed this week, here's how they shape up as of now: http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

[PackAttack12]

Common opponent only comes into play if there are at least 4 common teams. With 3, you move to the next tiebreaker.

Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Seattle.

 

[OldSchool101]

There's a lot of football and there will also be some surprises the next couple of weeks in our Conference IMO. The Pack literally needs to focus on winning out at 4-0 in this Conference and there is not 1 team that we play that isn't beatable. I see us finishing 9-7 but I'll never underestimate a team that is an underdog after the 2010 season. I see us improving slightly on D the last quarter so anything goes

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Wildcard hunt update: The Tampa Bay win makes it very likely that we have to win out to make the playoffs. I can't see the Lions losing more than 2 (including the last game of the season against us), and I doubt Tampa Bay will lose 3 more with their schedule.

I think it´s possible the Lions lose at the Giants and Cowboys. That would allow the Packers to lose another game setting up a showdown for the division in week 17 assuming the Vikings are out of it.

But since we get Chicago an additional game, that gives us the opportunity to go 3-2 against common opponents, if we beat Seattle, and then if they lose to Dallas, they will be 3-2 as well. Am I thinking about this correctly?

So then the question is who has better strength of victory. Probably them with wins against Atlanta, Seattle, Kansas City.

You´re right about the Packers being able to tie the Buccaneers in common games at 3-2. Currently Tampa Bay (.446) leads the Packers (.444) in strength of victory but that might change over the rest of the season.

Common opponent only comes into play if there are at least 4 common teams. With 3, you move to the next tiebreaker.

Actually it´s the best win percentage in a minimum of four common games not opponents.

 

[Raptorman]

I think it´s possible the Lions lose at the Giants and Cowboys. That would allow the Packers to lose another game setting up a showdown for the division in week 17 assuming the Vikings are out of it.



You´re right about the Packers being able to tie the Buccaneers in common games at 3-2. Currently Tampa Bay (.446) leads the Packers (.444) in strength of victory but that might change over the rest of the season.



Actually it´s the best win percentage in a minimum of four common games not opponents.

That's what I meant, I should have been more clear.

 

[Forget Favre]

If the Cleveland Clowns win just one game, that puts us out because of the ripple effect.

 

[Packerlifer]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/12/05/nfc-playoff-picture-buccaneers-making-a-move/