Five knee-jerk reactions to Packers first training camp practice

[HardRightEdge]

No, it's not. He dropped a pass hit that him in the hands from Tolzien in the second quarter and he also dropped a 2-point conversion. Box scores don't count conversions, but it's still a drop. Box scores don't tell the whole story.

It wasn't that difficult. It was a throw that was certainly catchable. So while he didn't get his hands on it, I suppose it's technically not a drop but it's a throw that should have been caught, so I'll adjust his drop total to 2.5 for the game. Happier?

Since you're so self-assured and snarky on this subject, I'm compelled to first point out where you are factually incorrect.

You tried to double-count the second quarter non-EP play. I know this because I have NFL Replay and just reviewed every Packer snap in the second quarter. The ESPN box score is correct.

So it comes down to 2 plays...the EP drop and the deep sideline play at 2:17 of the second quarter.

I concede the EP was a flat out drop. After reviewing this play several times in slow mo, contrary to the announcer call the LB did not tip that ball. One drop.

As for the deep sideline play, White was in full throttle, had a step on his man, the safety was closing, the ball was thrown to the back shoulder on a low trajectory. Tolzien was a half-beat late getting the throw off, and had to put some mustard on it to the outside to get it there in front of the safety. A receiver looking for that ball inside in full stride, then having brake and reach back for a mistimed throw coming in with some speed is a difficult catch. Drop? Maybe, maybe not. My rule of thumb is that if a guy makes a catch, and we say "great catch" as we would have in this case had he caught it, I would not charge a drop if he happens not to make the catch as in this case, especially given that Tolzien was equally at fault. In the end, I say "no drop".

As for your question: "Happier?" As you may have noted, I was not that happy with White's performance to begin with. Knowing you were factually incorrect and excessively harsh in your scoring doesn't make me any happier. I'd like to see White make a difficult downfield catch...that has not happened in 3 years.

Now I see that right after you posted 2.5 drops you turned right around and agreed with the Captain, saying what I said here, that it wasn't. That's interesting. Trying to pull something on me, I think?

 

[HardRightEdge]

If either one gets the spot it shouldn't be because the other fell flat on his face. I want this decision to be a tough one.

Unfortunately, when looking at bottom-of-the-roster spots, it is largely a war of attrition, and in some cases it may come down to who makes the fewest mistakes, who brings the most consistency.

 

[GoPGo]

Since you're so self-assured and snarky on this subject, I'm compelled to first point out where you are factually incorrect.

You tried to double-count the second quarter non-EP play. I know this because I have NFL Replay and just reviewed every Packer snap in the second quarter. The ESPN box score is correct.

I have NFL Gamepass and did the same thing. And after looking back it appears that he had a legitimate 2 drops.

I concede the EP was a flat out drop. After reviewing this play several times in slow mo, contrary to the announcer call the LB did not tip that ball. One drop.

As for the deep sideline play, White was in full throttle, had a step on his man, the safety was closing, the ball was thrown to the back shoulder on a low trajectory. Tolzien was a half-beat late getting the throw off, and had to put some mustard on it to the outside to get it there in front of the safety.

Tolzien couldn't throw the ball until White had Richards beat. The very instant it was apparent that White had Richards beat, Tolzien threw it.

A receiver looking for that ball inside in full stride, then having brake and reach back for a mistimed throw coming in with some speed is a difficult catch. Drop? Maybe, maybe not. My rule of thumb is that if a guy makes a catch, and we say "great catch" as we would have in this case had he caught it, I would not charge a drop if he happens not to make the catch as in this case, especially given that Tolzien was equally at fault. In the end, I say "no drop".

Seriously? Tolzien did exactly what he was supposed to do. He put the ball where only White had a chance to make a play and he was able to get both hands on it.

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Difficult catch or not, this is the NFL and it's still a drop. You see guys make those catches all the time. Or do drops only count when it's an easy play?

...agreed with the Captain, saying what I said here, that it wasn't. That's interesting. Trying to pull something on me, I think?

I was agreeing with the part of his post where he said White's performance was disappointing. Paranoid much?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Paranoid much?

I used to be, but now I know everybody is talking about me

 

[HardRightEdge]

Tolzien couldn't throw the ball until White had Richards beat.

Any QB in the NFL who waits for the receiver to beat a defender is not an effective QB. Tolzien was late with the throw. Go ask him...he'll tell you. To Tolzien's credit, he did not lead White inside where he would run the risk of having his receiver's head taken off.

Seriously? Tolzien did exactly what he was supposed to do. He put the ball where only White had a chance to make a play and he was able to get both hands on it.

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Difficult catch or not, this is the NFL and it's still a drop. You see guys make those catches all the time. Or do drops only count when it's an easy play?

You need to closely examine this play is real time, not in a still picture or in slow motion, to appreciate the change in direction required to make this catch. Yes, you see guys make these catches all the time on the highlight reels. You see guys not making these catches more often then not, play-in-play-out, game-in-and-game-out. Also note Adams drop in the end zone. Back shoulder catches are made when they are expected, not when an unexpected change in direction is required. Adams is more at fault since he ran himself into a box.

Besides, we're not talking about whether or a not a so called "drop" such as this disqualifies him as a Pro Bowler. We're talking about a possible #5 WR. This is not a -1 play. The EP drop? That does score a negative.

Tolzien did put the ball where only White could catch it. However there were better places to put that ball where only White could catch it while giving him a better chance to do so.

And yes...routine catches that are dropped are drops...difficult catches that are dropped are not. It goes to the point of looking past the highlight reels.

I was agreeing with the part of his post where he said White's performance was disappointing. Paranoid much?

You should have been agreeing with the part of his post that corrected your target count. Uncomprehending much?

 

[Mondio]

That would have been a tough catch, I was pretty disappointed he dropped the conversion attempt though. it basically reaffirmed what i've always thought about him. Not a guy to depend on. He has a few games to change my opinion, but as of now, I'd take Janis well before him. Even if Janis can't be depended on now, he can at least be depended on to stretch the heck out of the field on occasion and maybe spark a big play AND he does ok on special teams

 

[GoPGo]

Any QB in the NFL who waits for the receiver to beat a defender is not an effective QB. Tolzien was late with the throw. Go ask him...he'll tell you.

Any NFL QB who makes throws to receivers who aren't open is begging for interceptions. Rodgers wouldn't have thrown that ball a second sooner either, although he probably would have thrown it a little lower and a foot or two more to the outside. But then again, we're talking about the MVP.

You need to closely examine this play is real time, not in a still picture or in slow motion, to appreciate the change in direction required to make this catch.

I did... multiple times.

And yes...routine catches that are dropped are drops...difficult catches that are dropped are not.

So if you drop a difficult catch, then you didn't drop it? Gotcha. So then who decides what is and is not a difficult enough play to count a dropped pass as a drop? You? That's kind of like saying a wet dog is a wet dog, but a wet dog in the rain isn't really wet because it's difficult to stay dry in the rain.

Now let's get to the real matter concerning any analysis of that play. Was the difficulty of the catch high enough to be considered a mitigating factor in White's favor? Sure it was. It was high difficulty. Not all drops are as concerning as others. Am I particularly concerned that he dropped that one? No. In fact, I'm mildly impressed that he got both hands on it, but he still dropped it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Any NFL QB who makes throws to receivers who aren't open is begging for interceptions.

That is a gross misunderstanding of QB play in the NFL.

 

[GoPGo]

That is a gross misunderstanding of QB play in the NFL.

Whatever. You don't make the throw until you're confident your target is going to be open.

 

[HardRightEdge]

So if you drop a difficult catch, then you didn't drop it? Gotcha.

That is exactly what I'm saying. You said yourself, "It was high difficulty".

So then who decides what is and is not a difficult enough play to count a dropped pass as a drop? You?

I reckon I'm as good a judge as any. You can look at a variety of sites that attempt to track this unofficial stat and you'll find disparities, sometimes wide disparities. I've heard some NFL "professional" analysts say if a receiver gets his hands on the ball and does not catch it, it's a drop. That, in my opinion, is lazy and simpleminded, unless you're in the process of splitting hairs over who to vote for on the All Pro ballot.

Now let's get to the real matter concerning any analysis of that play. Was the difficulty of the catch high enough to be considered a mitigating factor in White's favor? Sure it was. It was high difficulty. Not all drops are as concerning as others. Am I particularly concerned that he dropped that one? No. In fact, I'm mildly impressed that he got both hands on it, but he still dropped it.

Now we're close to being on the same page...but not quite.

This play begs another question. Let's say it was Janis in that position on this route. Would Tolzien have thrown the ball away, not trusting Janis' catch radius? No drop charged on that play. And it would be a bigger minus than White's failing to make the catch.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Whatever. You don't make the throw until you're confident your target is going to be open.

"Whatever"? Really? "Open" vs. "going to be open" or "throwing the receiver open" are worlds apart.

 

[GoPGo]

That is exactly what I'm saying. You said yourself, "It was high difficulty".

I reckon I'm as good a judge as any.

And I reckon I am, and I disagree.

You can look at a variety of sites that attempt to track this unofficial stat and you'll find disparities, sometimes wide disparities. I've heard some NFL "professional" analysts say if a receiver gets his hands on the ball and does not catch it, it's a drop. That, in my opinion, is lazy and simpleminded, unless you're in the process of splitting hairs over who to vote for on the All Pro ballot.

And in my opinion, it's objective and measurable. Your standard of what is a drop is completely subjective and infinitely open to disagreement. It's quantitative vs qualitative. It should be easy to quantify if a ball was dropped or not. Two hands on the ball seems like a good standard. Once you've determined that a pass was dropped, you can take a qualitative analysis of the overall play to determine if the drop was worth worrying about or not.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And I reckon I am, and I disagree.

I certainly couldn't prevent you from doing so, nor would I want to. It's called a debate.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And in my opinion, it's objective and measurable. Your standard of what is a drop is completely subjective and infinitely open to disagreement.

So, what are these objective and measureable criteria?

 

[GoPGo]

So, what are these objective and measureable criteria?

I was referring directly to what you said in your post about NFL analysts considering a play where the receiver got his hands on the ball being identified as a dropped pass. I thought that was fairly simple to ascertain given the context.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I was referring directly to what you said in your post about NFL analysts considering a play where the receiver got his hands on the ball being identified as a dropped pass. I thought that was fairly simple to ascertain given the context.

I wanted you to explicitly state your position so I could explicitly explain why it is wrong.

If you're going to count drops as a stat, the intention would be to make caparisons among receivers. Guys with higher drop counts per target would be regarded as having inferior hands to those with lower drop ratios. Correct?

Here's just one example to illustrate why that is wrong. There are a fair number of receivers in this league who do not like running routes over the middle into traffic. Some have even been named to Pro Bowls. Mike Wallace comes to mind. When a QB has this kind of receiver he will in time figure out that the guy is unreliable over the middle and not throw it to him in those difficult spots. While that keeps his drop count down, it surely does not make him a more sure-handed receiver.

Conversely, a trusted all-purpose receiver will be thrown a higher percentage of dangerous or difficult catches. Your criteria creates a paradox...his drop count will be higher while at the same time being the more reliable receiver.

A second example is the one I gave regarding Janis. If his catch radius is in question, he's going to be thrown fewer difficult balls, thereby have fewer opportunities to log drops by your criteria. I don't know to what extent Janis is not yet trusted, but I can say this...we have not yet seen a QB throw him a ball in his time as a Packer where he actually had to reach for it.

The determination of what constitutes a drop can't help but be subjective if a drop count stat is going to have any comparative value at all. Being objective is not necessarily being meaningful.

Now I don't mean to suggest that White not catching that ball is some kind of abberation. We have not seen him try it enough to think he'd likely catch the next 2 similar balls as we would if we were talking about Nelson. Again, paradoxically, if White did drop the next 2 they'd stop throwing them to him and the drop count, as you measure it, would start to fall.

So, in order to equalize the distortion caused by more trusted receivers given more difficult opportunities, I suggest applying the eye test that says, "if it's a difficult attempt, it is not a drop".

 

[longtimefan]

Who truly says it is a drop? Each site--espn, pro football focus, yahoo, nfl have their own way of counting a drop?

I?f that is the case, then every one is right with the way they think a drop is

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

It`s lovely to see the children playing so nicely

 

[GoPGo]

I wanted you to explicitly state your position so I could explicitly explain why it is wrong.

If you're going to count drops as a stat, the intention would be to make caparisons among receivers. Guys with higher drop counts per target would be regarded as having inferior hands to those who do not. Correct?

Here's just one example to illustrate why that is wrong. There are a fair number of receivers in this league who do not like running routes over the middle into traffic. Some have even been named to Pro Bowls. Mike Wallace comes to mind. When a QB has this kind of receiver he will in time figure out that the guy is unreliable over the middle and not throw it to him in difficult spots. While that keeps his drop count down, it surely does not make him a more sure handed receiver.

Conversely, a trusted all-purpose receiver will be thrown a higher percentage of dangerous or difficult catches. Your criteria creates a paradox...his drop count will be higher while at the same time being the more reliable receiver.

A second example is the one I gave regarding Janis. If his catch radius is in question, he's going to be thrown fewer difficult balls, thereby have fewer opportunities to log drops by your criteria. I don't know to what extent Janis is not yet trusted, but I can say this...we have not yet seen a QB yet throw him a ball in his time as a Packer where he actually had to reach for it.

The determination of what constitutes a drop can't help but be subjective if a drop count stat is going to have any comparative value at all. Being objective is not necessarily being meaningful.

Now I don't mean to suggest that White not catching that ball is some kind of abberation. We have not seen him try it enough to know if he'd catch the next 2 similar balls. Again, paradoxically, if he did drop the next 2 they'd stop throwing them to him and the drop count, as you measure it, would start to fall.

So, in order to equalize the distortion caused by more trusted receivers given more difficult opportunities, I suggest applying the eye test that says, "if it's a difficult attempt, it is not a drop".

Okay, we're not that far off. The difference is that you're completely disregarding any objective, quantitative data and are only looking at the qualitative aspects. The two are both important to consider. Quantitative analysis requires something to be measurable. You can measure how many times a player got both hands on a ball and failed to make the catch. That, in the minds of many, constitutes a drop for whatever reason. But sometimes a drop is nothing to be worried about if the difficulty is high enough or if there are other factors contributing to the drop. That's qualitative analysis, and that's where the subjective comparative value can be argued.

Now, this has actually drifted far, far away from the original point by introducing elements of comparison and hypotheticals. Back to the original point, by objective, quantitative measure, White dropped the pass. Subjectively, you can argue from there whether the drop was worth being concerned over. I don't think it was. Neither do you from what I can tell, so this is essentially hair-splitting at this point. You're saying it wasn't a drop at all. I'm saying it was but it wasn't worth worrying about. What's the difference? Semantics.

I think I'm done here.*






* Disclaimer: Writer reserves the right to revisit the discussion/debate as appropriate if/when new arguments/date/information is introduced into the subject at hand.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Semantics.

It is not semantics at all. It's a matter of what statistics are intended to express and whether they accomplish their intended goal. Your method does not accomplish that. If it's not worth worrying about, don't count it...literally.

Your disclaimer, by the way, is gratuitous. Either you're done or you're not.

 

[sschind]

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I didn't see the play but going by that still alone I would not call that a drop.

Of course I have never gone by a still alone but that is a different subject all together.

 

[Poppa San]

Of course I have never gone by a still alone but that is a different subject all together.

I never go by a still alone. More fun to drink with friends. Besides might be revenooers lurking and I might need backups.

 

[sschind]

I never go by a still alone. More fun to drink with friends. Besides might be revenooers lurking and I might need backups.