Final Annoying Mock/Prediction

tynimiller

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1.25 - Traded 1.25/5.169 for 1.27/4.104
1.27 Chop Robinson ED Penn State
Why:
...in this rendition of the what I think will happen all DB options were gone that I'd trade up for by the 19th pick (Quinyon, Terrion and DeJean all gone). Kool-Aid then went before us but after 19. Any edge I would trade up beyond 20 was gone as well....and here's the arguable shock, I expect Edgerrin Cooper to be gone by our pick too. So with that positional value and adding to our edge group a pass rusher that is unlike ANY guy we presently have in that room is something I fully expect Hafley to be salivating towards this type of addition. Enagbare isn't guaranteed to be back anytime soon...so Chop fortifies a position group that is needed to make chaos. Chop is from a prospect profile everything Packers...a near 9.7 RAS, high profile school, lots of experience and delivered on bigger stages.
Why Not: When is Gute going to stop picking first round prospects with no likelihood of extensive snaps played. He's no higher than fourth on the "edge" group of guys...even drafting a Jordan Morgan or Kingsley Sua now rather than maybe missing on them make more sense arguably as they would play year 1 more likely.

2.41 Jordan Morgan OL Arizona
Why:
Green Bay has not spent a recent top 100 pick on an outside tackle, but they have spent picks in the top 100 for OT prospects that they plan on moving inside OR centers....and that is precisely what Jordan Morgan is. Extensive experience, at a power 5, massive hands, arm length for GB is guard but he was an excellent tackle, 9.00 RAS...he is the Packer breed of tackle to guard type.
Why Not: Despite the success of Jenkins and tendency continued with Rhyan many will hate the pick as it isn't an outside tackle...and to be fair there is some merit there...and who knows perhaps Morgan gets a test at LT or RT in camp while they decipher best 5.

2.58 Jaden Hicks S Washington State (if not here Cole Bishop is easily put here)
Why: I remember catching flack long time ago, but Jaden Hicks is that big but athletic profile interchangeable safety piece that I envision working alongside Jaire and Xavier for years to come. Again, fits the GB tendencies crossing the typical weight threshold, clears the RAS of 8+ easily...3cone is excellent, and he has experience at deep, slot and box snaps.
Why Not: He has shriveled in a few big games when Washington St needed him to excel. It wasn't every time, but man he played two of his worst games against Oregon and Oregon St.

3.88 Trevin Wallace LB Kentucky
Why: Wallace is a much better off ball linebacker than many are going to assume merely because some mock engines say he is not a top 100 player. All that says is those individuals didn't watch the film. His instincts are quick and transitions him from reading to heat-seeking immediately. His aggressive nature against the run game is a game changer from the middle, but his athletic profile almost for certain will translate into a capable defender in coverage as well. Gute continues his streak of having a pick or two that many will SCREAM about being too soon.
Why Not: Truly only one full year of play, albeit very high level, he only registered a little over 300 snaps in 2022 and before that was more a role player...but he's also not yet even 21.5 years old so that is somewhat to be expected.

3.91 Maason Smith iDL LSU
Why:
Nothing is guaranteed. Kenny Clark is entering his final year under contract, Wyatt is getting closer to his as well....plus can we hang on to Slaton after his expires this year? Especially what TJ at times was our second best trench defender. Wooden and Brooks are both diverse options who may at times line up more wide than in under Hefley...so bolstering the iDL room with an athletically gifted pressure maker from the inside is something I don't think Gute is going to be able to fight off. A special physical specimen that has an athletic profile unlike many his size...ability to win with his length, and speed is there...with a lot of growth left being a young prospect (rare these days with covid prospects).
Why Not: He still is putting it all together...was part of the rotation as a rookie at LSU, BUT ACL tear in 2022 so 2023 was only his second real year. You're risking a top 100 pick on a rawer prospect.

4.104 Cam Hart CB Notre Dame
Why:
Excels in man coverage, is built like Gute likes - 6'3' 202lbs and a RAS of 9.82....just a special physical specimen that will embrace press man chances when the call is made. The fact some sites state he is only a zone CB is BS. Trust me watch his film and reps at the senior bowl, vastly more capable as a press man option than those people realize. Adds a body type we just don't have as well.
Why Not: Older prospect is about the only arguable why not to me...outside of perhaps preferring a different prospect.

4.126 Caeden Wallace OT Penn State
Why:
Measurables, experience, RAS, film....Caeden Wallace is a borderline top 100 pick IMO....and will be a steal by someone this year.
Why Not: Inconsistencies. His technique in hip releases and punches are not cleanly executed and cost him at times. Shore that up and he can and IMO will be a starter at RT...but if he cannot figure that out he is a reserve player at his highest.

6.202 Jaylon Carlies S Missouri
Why:
Provide insurance at a position of need...athletic profile similar to Hicks just 15 or so pounds heavier. STRONG run supporter who has a knack for putting his head on the ball often in a game.
Why Not: Hips are tight and at his size and weight, this may restrict some of his versatility.

6.219 Jalen Sundell OL North Dakota State
Why:
Very much a GB thing, OT in college this last year, has tackle measurables as well but a lot of center experience (nearly as many center snaps as LT snaps). That combination of size, athleticism and experience makes for a very intriguing prospect to look at drafting.
Why Not: His athletic profile is incomplete which is not typically a trend of ours, but is more so in late rounds. Arguably after Morgan and Wallace, the holes are filled and maybe depth elsewhere is arguably more important.
7.245 Jawhar Jordan RB
Why:
He is a late round version of Bucky Irving. Seriously, so many like or love Bucky (raises my own hand)...however that sized back, no matter how tenacious he is I struggle with. This late, I have ZERO hesitation and truly think Jawhar given the chances is that special and unique back to add to a room of bigger hard hitting types. Jawhar excels however at running with a fever, and has no fear of contact which makes a guy his size and his agility (in game) dangerous on the move. Highly productive from scrimmage for years however, against solid competition. Bonus is he has years of returning experience as well.
Why Not: Likely a pick that may dissolve into a PS and is a body type of a RB that is a gamble.
7.255 Kedon Slovis QB BYU
Why:
Tossing picks at a QB with his physical make up - nearly 10 inch hands, 6'2' 223lbs and 31+ arms YET runs a 4.55 and a 1.57 split....is 1,000% worth doing. Different profile and type than Clifford so would be interesting watching both grow behind Love. Clifford had a much higher floor than Slovis IMO but Slovis has a crazy high ceiling type profile.
Why Not: Likelihood is won't make active roster, will be that 3rd QB and PS....not worthy of a pick for that reason.

Overall Why: Sufficiently fills necessary needs, while also striking a high positional value and 1st round profile in Chop early on Day1. Also keeps the option to float Tom around to center or guard or remain at RT depending on where best 5 wash out. My prediction is Morgan would be RG and the rest remain the same for this year, but Wallace would make a believer in the staff that next year he could be a Tackle if Tom needs to go to center....with an outside shot of Sundell maybe being ready to replace Myers as well.

The defense for sure gets stronger, as Chop is that elite bonus pick for the timing of the pick...edge is a spot not of desperate need but need nonetheless with Kingsley injured and Preston getting older we are not void of need as well. Hart and Carlies all in different roles could make substantial contributions in year one depending on injuries and performances...while Trevin for sure is going to likely be out there week 1 and Maasan to me in this group could be that luxury pick that may just push that defensive front over the edge from good to special...if not this year, next.

Overall Why Not: Doesn't provide a true center field, fast / single high safety...or at least one that many are going to think can be that for us....Day1 pick spent on a player that is likely to receive third or fourth most snaps his rookie year, when you have a team that is a legit contender right now is arguably asinine. Relies on Dillon to not be the regressed version he was in 2023....and puts our entire off ball backer situation on a third rounder and a Quay you hope finally put it together...truthfully forces us to look to an off ball addition via FA post draft.
 
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Schultz

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I really like your detailed approach. I just need you to tell me one more thing. Why would Arizona make the trade? Is there an Edge or CB they are afraid TB will take ahead of them?
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I really like your detailed approach. I just need you to tell me one more thing. Why would Arizona make the trade? Is there an Edge or CB they are afraid TB will take ahead of them?

Short slide in this scenario I predicted they jumped up with very minimal cost to them to add a OL, and their interior is severely lacking, which is why I had them grab Graham Barton. They had picked MHJr at #3 earlier. I think another viable option would be them targeting a CB perhaps, maybe they seen the run and are a stronger believer in Rakestraw or TJ Tampa...but in this scenario I predicted Barton.
 

RicFlairoftheNFL

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I like individual players within this draft at need positions. Wallace, Hart as a depth CB, all 3 O Linemen. Overall I have a problem with the strategy of drafting EDGE first a position we're gonna be pretty good at without drafting a 1st rounder at this position when we have obvious needs other players. Especially when we're not getting that opposite safety to go with Xavier until Day 3. And so as not to be accused of NOT putting my money where my mouth is I'm working on my final Mock as I write this and it will be up within the next couple of hours.
 

AmishMafia

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I think I would rate this high on the reasonably likely metric for most of the picks. I think you have a good mix of boom or bust types since we have so many picks.
 

Schultz

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I have a lot of extra time on my hands today so bear with me. I use the Rich Hill chart. In Tyni's trade Arz. gives up 249 pts. and gets 239 in return. If they asked for 126 instead of 169 they would still be giving up 249 but would now be receiving 250 pts. So, I searched for a scenario that would motivate them to settle for 169. MN (11) DN(12) LV(13). One of them comes up with a package for pick #4 to get a QB. AZ. doesn't get Harrison but, they use pick, (11-12-13) to get their CB, either Mitchell or Arnold. Arz. is confident they will get a quality WR at 27. As GB gets close to going on the clock at 25 we let Arz know that Buffalo has made an offer to move up to 25. Arz. has to believe Buffalo is thinking WR. Then GB gets the offer from AZ.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I like individual players within this draft at need positions. Wallace, Hart as a depth CB, all 3 O Linemen. Overall I have a problem with the strategy of drafting EDGE first a position we're gonna be pretty good at without drafting a 1st rounder at this position when we have obvious needs other players. Especially when we're not getting that opposite safety to go with Xavier until Day 3. And so as not to be accused of NOT putting my money where my mouth is I'm working on my final Mock as I write this and it will be up within the next couple of hours.
Hicks with the 58. Carlies on Day3 is actually the second swing at safety next to McKinney.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I have a lot of extra time on my hands today so bear with me. I use the Rich Hill chart. In Tyni's trade Arz. gives up 249 pts. and gets 239 in return. If they asked for 126 instead of 169 they would still be giving up 249 but would now be receiving 250 pts. So, I searched for a scenario that would motivate them to settle for 169. MN (11) DN(12) LV(13). One of them comes up with a package for pick #4 to get a QB. AZ. doesn't get Harrison but, they use pick, (11-12-13) to get their CB, either Mitchell or Arnold. Arz. is confident they will get a quality WR at 27. As GB gets close to going on the clock at 25 we let Arz know that Buffalo has made an offer to move up to 25. Arz. has to believe Buffalo is thinking WR. Then GB gets the offer from AZ.

Rich's chart has in my experience been one of the best indicators of trade values outside of top 10 trade ups and especially for QBs (again typically inside that top 10 or even 5).

You almost always give up a touch more than you receive and is why if I'm Gute in that scenario only way I'm going to give them our 126 is if they give us a third instead of the early fourth.
 

Schultz

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Rich's chart has in my experience been one of the best indicators of trade values outside of top 10 trade ups and especially for QBs (again typically inside that top 10 or even 5).

You almost always give up a touch more than you receive and is why if I'm Gute in that scenario only way I'm going to give them our 126 is if they give us a third instead of the early fourth.
If one team gives up a touch more than they receive then doesn't the other team get a touch more than they gave up? Now I know I am not right very often, but I am going to go out on a limb here and say that my view on this is correct. So, to me the key is which team has the motivation to give up a touch more?
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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If one team gives up a touch more than they receive then doesn't the other team get a touch more than they gave up? Now I know I am not right very often, but I am going to go out on a limb here and say that my view on this is correct. So, to me the key is which team has the motivation to give up a touch more?
They gave up more to but wanted to move up, which is why GB gets more in return
 

Schultz

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So does every team that wants to move up give the other team more in return?
 

Team Ronny

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I hope the purple **** heads sell the farm to move up for a qb..and it backfires like the Hershel walker trade!!
 

Schultz

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I've never seen a team get to move up by providing the team moving back less in return.
I kind of feel that the premium for moving up is already baked into the chart. Except as you pointed out in a top 10 pick for a QB move. We were discussing a move up to 25.
 

sschind

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I would think the team moving up would give more mainly because they are likely to be the ones initiating the deal. Gute calls #20 and says he wants to deal. #20 is going to want a bit more than equal because Gute requested it AND they are giving up a higher pick. I really don't know how a GM would initiate a trade back I mean Gute calls #30 and says he wants to move back. #30 is interested but not super excited about it. There's a guy there at 25 they like but there are also a few guys they like that will likely be there at #30. They might be convinced to move up if they got a little extra in return. That begs the question are trades back the result of another GM wanting to move up or a GM wanting to move back. Does Gute trade back because another GM calls him to move up or does Gute move back because he calls another GM and says he wants to trade back?
 

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