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Early look at potential cap savers next year

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Mar 16, 2014.

  1. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    First, the major UFAs ($2M or more) that we might realistically just let walk.

    Tramon - $9.5M
    Raji - $4M
    Bush - $2.033M
    Sherrod - $2.1M

    That's a potential savings of about $18M from this years cap. Sherrod does have a team option for 2015 if he does end up finally having a big season.

    House, Harris, Taylor, and Lattimore are others that may come off the books after the 2014 season, but at minimal savings. All will be UFA's, so House and Lattimore in particular may be playing for contracts this year. There is the potential to lose all of Tramon, House, and Bush next year, so despite keeping Shields, it wouldn't be a bad idea this year to look at a project CB in the middle rounds, especially if Hyde moves to safety. I know we like Rolle, so we'll see. Boykin will be a RFA, so barring a disastrous dropoff, he'll certainly warrant a tender next year.

    Guys who definitely warrant extension consideration:

    Nelson - $4.375M
    Cobb - $1.021M
    Bulaga - $3.829M

    I'm a bit concerned about the near future cap requirements for our WR corps. As far as I can tell, Nelson and Cobb are both $8-$10M dollar players. Seems like a lot to have invested in your #1 and #2, and it would be extremely tough to let either walk. Should Boykin improve on his 2013 season, you almost have to protect him with a 2nd round RFA tender to prevent another team from signing him to an offer sheet outside of our comfort zone (similar to Hawkins with the Bengals/Browns this year).

    Bulaga plays a premium position, but injuries mar his potential FA value. Of course, he can take care of that with a 16 game healthy season where he plays like an All-Pro this year. If you're not concerned about his health, trying to lock him in now to a below market deal with the appeal to him of some guaranteed money to protect him, isn't the worst idea in the world.

    Potential cap casualties in 2015:

    B. Jones - He'll likely get another chance in 2014, but he has a pretty unappealing 2015 cap number of $4.675M. The dead money is only $1M if he's cut then, so he'll need a good season to see that final contract year. Potential cap savings, $3.675M.

    Hawk - Cap hit of $5.1M and dead money of $1.6M would be $3.5M of cap savings if he's cut in 2015. They've got enough of a comfort level with Hawk that unlike Jones, I think it would take a pretty bad year for Hawk to get the axe before the 2015 season.

    Peppers - His full contract details aren't available yet (that I've seen), but he's presumably a year to year player at his age. From what I've heard, he'd result in $5M dead money if cut, but that's not official yet. Best case scenario is that he remains a Packer in 2015 by continuing to be a solid NFL playmaker.

    These are the only cuts that are both plausible, and likely to be of any substantial cap savings. To anyone expecting to see Burnett, it's very unlikely, even if he follows up a bad 2013 with a bad 2014. Cap savings on a Burnett cut would be a mere $200,000. Unless he turns into a complete liability, he's going to get at least 2 more years. I don't think he will be, and hopefully he bounces back.
     
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  2. MrE

    MrE Cheesehead

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    Great post. I am hoping that the recent Eric Decker FA contract will be the contract that Cobb and Nelson emulate. TT believes in precedence to some degree.
     
  3. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    I expect Williams to restructure and finish his career in GB. The other two players that I expect to see back would be Hawk and Bush. They draw ire from some fans, but are two of our "solid" players that are reliable but just not flashy or elite by any means. If Bush can accept a veteran minimum he's a good keeper for his special teams play (still top level), work ethic, locker room presence, and worth as a dime / backup CB. However, if we are lucky enough to have better CB backups that would obviously be the route to go.

    Hawk should restructure again and play out his career in GB. I don't think that we have any legitimate players in the pipeline to take over his role yet.
     
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  4. Ace

    Ace Cheesehead

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    IMO the Decker deal is the starting point for Jordy.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I will not be shocked if Nelson is not resigned. Where we take WR(s) in the draft will be indicative.
     
  6. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I love Jordy. With that in mind, I think if he gets $8-$10M a year, we would probably have been better off value-wise with the 3 year/$11.3M deal to Jones that the Raiders gave him and then signing Cobb for Victor Cruz type money and letting Nelson walk.
     
  7. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    Should also point out that the cap is project to go up by around $8M next year. The Packers should have plenty of cap room again next year.
     
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    History shows when the cap goes up salary inflation kicks in. Embarrassments of riches can dissolve quickly.

    Further, in the fantasy football driven Jones/Nelson/Cobb discussion Bulaga is being overlooked. Bulaga will be be 27 years old in 2015. If he returns to near-Pro-Bowl form he will cost quite a bit, even playing from right side, and we will pay him over Nelson who will be 30 in 2015.
     
  9. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Which is why I would like to try to lock in a discounted long-term rate with Bulaga before the season. Missing most of the last 2 seasons with injury, I don't think he's going to demand near top starter money at his position right now.

    But Bulaga's mindset might be that he's one more long-term injury away from some serious career risk. Might be a win/win for both sides if we lock him up for a modest salary while Bulaga gets enough of a signing bonus to insure himself against any long-term injury.
     
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It never seems to work out that way with serially injured players. Teams are concerned about the injury history and want to see some proof in the putting; players want the shot at the big contract. With Bulaga being only 26 years old, I'd have a hard time seeing him take the short money.

    Maybe if he looks fit as fiddle by the time we get through preseason the Packers might try to extend him early. However, our recent history in this regard has been to be turned down (to our advantage as luck would have it) as the players in question envision the brass ring.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I would be shocked if the Packers wouldn´t re-sign Nelson. Not so much with Cobb though. I agree though that it´s not a given that both will be back in 2015 and the draft will be indicative of it, not only where we select a WR but which kind of WR we will select (for example if we draft Brandin Cooks I think that could mean Cobb won´t be back in 2015).
     
  12. thequick12

    thequick12 Cheesehead

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    They will keep both Nelson and Cobb for at least one more contract while filling out the rest of WR core with draft picks or undrafted free agents like Jarrett Boykin.
     
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    You know that for a fact???
     

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