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Draft picks HAVE to have immediate impact

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by FrankRizzo, Jan 6, 2014.

  1. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    It amazes me there are a few fans in here who give passes to all the high draft picks who don't do anything in their rookie, or even second season.

    In today's NFL, rookies contribute, and the teams who get their young guys to contribute tend to win.

    That's especially important to a team like the Packers, who's GM is allergic to adding players via free agency or trades.
    You know, players like Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers, Anquan Boldin, Glen Dorsey, etc. Those guys are all starters in SF defense, and none were their draft picks. Hmm.

    When you ignore those methods, and bank (arrogantly) 100% on your rookies, you HAVE TO HIT your top picks. Teddy has failed with his top picks recently AND he's ignored the other tools for roster assembly.

    Our defense has made Colin Kaepernick look like God in the 3 games we've played him. In addition to being 3-0 against us, he's amassed over 1,200 yards in the 3 games. Rodgers threw for 177 yesterday. Kaepernick out-passed Rodgers, and out-rushed Lacy, yesterday.

    Thompson's two #1 picks recently were Nick Perry and Datone Jones. They haven't made us any better at all. That's clear. Jerel Worthy was the #2 pick last year. He also has been 100% worthless.
    It's no wonder why we've been one & done with top rookie impacts like that on defense.

    To succeed, you need to get good play from your rookies while they are on their rookie contracts.
    Seattle is getting that from Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson and that Inside Linebacker I forgot his name.

    Those rookie contributions, combined with adding some key pieces in free agency, like D-Linemen Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril this off-season, make a defense both good and deep.

    Last year, Minnesota drafted safety Harrison Smith, AFTER Thompson rolled the dice on Nick Perry.
    Thompson, both times, went for the larger man, thinking he had something in his current safeties.
    Both Smith, last year, and Reid, this year, were All-Rookies.

    Those two gambles have killed us.

    We can blame Capers all the time, but Thompson deserves his share of blame for the failures at the top of the draft.
    His 2011 #1 pick was Sherrod. His 2010 #1 pick was Bulaga. His 2009 first pick was Raji.

    • BJ Raji, 2009
    • B Bulaga, 2010
    • D Sherrod, 2011
    • N Perry, 2012
    • D Jones, 2013
    Those are TT's last 5 first round picks. After their rookie contracts, their prices go up. Raji comes due this off-season. He's gone. How much better have these 5 players made us, this year, last year? I know a lot of it is injuries. There's a problem there too because teams like the 49ers & Seahawks don't have to deal with that. How many years in a row can we chalk it up to luck? That's really the Unsolved Mystery of this century to me.

    The way Thompson arrogantly ignores other avenues of roster assembly, and instead relies more on the draft than ANY other NFL team, he absolutely HAS TO hit higher % of his top draft picks than the other teams. Instead, as you can see from those recent 5 top picks, he's batting much lower.
    That's why we have essentially wasted the Aaron Rodgers Era these past 3 seasons. As Ron Wolf would say, we're just a fart in the wind.

    We basically have gone ONE & DONE three straight years. The win over Joe Webb's Vikings last year was not really a playoff win in my book.

    Teddy needs to do a 180 this off-season. He needs to utilize free agency, or a trade, and FILL at least ONE HOLE, either at Inside Linebacker where we have a void, or at Safety, where we have dog crap. Not only are our safeties bad tacklers (maybe Richardson is the exception), but they are the opposite of ballhawks. Have you ever in your life, seen a full team go 17 games and get ZERO interceptions from any safety? I mean, none, zip, all season?

    Where's Darren Sharper? He could have come up with a couple this year.
    I bet George Teague, LeRoy Butler, Eugene Robinson, even Chuck Cecil might have had one.

    Our safeties are the worst set of safeties in the playoffs, perhaps in the NFL.

    If Thompson shows his blind loyalty again and overpays to keep BJ Raji, then we are doomed.
    If he saves that approximately $8 mil/year, and uses that to keep a few cheaper but more playmaking players like a James Jones, or Sam Shields, etc. and adds one or two mid-priced free agents at our weak spots, I think there's a chance we can turn it around and perhaps, finally, get past a good team in the playoffs. We are running out of time though.

    Rodgers, Jordy, these guys don't get better in their 30's.
    The clock is ticking, and it's ticking faster.
    This is the most important off-season for this franchise since 2008.
    If Teddy doesn't adapt now, we've seen the last of our Super Bowl runs IMO.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2014
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  2. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    You do know, the Packers won a SB just 3 season ago, right?

    Kind of makes everything you just wrote, rather meaningless.
     
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  3. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    FWIW - Eric Reid was drafted 18th last year. D. Jones was drafted at 26.

    As for his first rounders, you have a point to a certain extent. But, omitting Claymaker and Casey Hayward (when you mention Worthy who were both drafted in the second round last year) kinda shows you are cherry-picking certain facts to bolster your argument. Raji, Clay, and Bulaga were instrumental in winning SB XLV. So, I think those have already proven to be good selections. Unfortunately, Bulaga has had injury issues and Sherrod had a freak injury. That's not TT's fault. When healthy, Bulaga was the real deal. If he returns next season, he and Bak (a 4th-round steal by TT) will form a talented tackle-combo to go with one of the best guard combos in the league.

    But, you are right in the fact that both Perry and Jones haven't made the impact we've needed. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Perry is capable of fully making the transition to OLB. Though, who knows what will happen after a second full off-season for him. But, I think Jones could be good still. So, I'm not ready to go off the deep end yet with him.
     
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  4. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Jordy Nelson was an underwhelming pick his first two seasons in the league, even then he didn't emerge until the end of his third season. Rodgers was deemed an injury prone bust at the end of his third season. Nick Collins was pronounced to be a warm body his third season. The beat goes on. IMHO the way to draft at the bottom of the first is upside upside upside which Ted Thompson does. Don't grab the marginal starters who are ready to play their first year, grab the guys who can really turn into studs their second and third seasons. Finding mediocre junk is easy enough in this league, finding real difference makers is the challenge.
     
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  5. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Well said!
     
  6. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    So that's it then?
    Just rest on those laurels?
     
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  7. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I do agree to an extent that Thompson deserves some leeway for the Super Bowl win but the fact remains that our past three drafts have not provided much for the defense. There is a legitimate question about whether or not the front office drain of having guys leave for jobs at other teams has weakened our draft and develop program. Perhaps it's just going to take time to train enough guys in the front office to make up for our losses but we can't just close our eyes and pretend that this team is on the right track defensively. Get a new coordinator if you want (though I think Capers is a decent coordinator and apparently the rest of the league does as well, according to some reports) but until we start brining some impact players in on defense and stop relying on youth so much, this will remain a defense that breaks down at inopportune moments.
     
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  8. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I do agree that Nick Perry and Datone Jones need to make a leap next year. At this point, both have looked real bad. I'm hoping Jones will get comfortable in the system and start looking like a real pro.

    I would like to see the Packers entertain a few free agents this year. The Super Bowl defense had two very key free agents: Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett. The draft is a great way to build a team and depth, but once in a while you need to get a proven player to come in and make an impact. Please Note: Before everybody gets offended and responds with the same dumb comments, I am NOT saying go out and sign a ton of high priced free agents. If a free agent is out there for a reasonable price, entertain the idea of signing him.
     
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  9. yooperpackfan

    yooperpackfan Cheesehead

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    You can't keep living on a 3 year old Super Bowl.
    Time to let it go and move on to the future.
     
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  10. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Who knows, those picks may pan out in the future. It's possible with Datone.
    It's doubtful for Perry for a couple reasons, one being it's not his natural position, the other being he seems brittle, and another perhaps, is that he didn't want to play stand up OLB in the first place.

    Look, 1st round guys are usually more talented.... that's the reason they are drafted first. usually.

    How does a team improve?

    Well look at Seattle. They were good last year, and they added 2 key pieces to make their pass rush better, in free agency.
    Look at San Francisco. They drafted Eric Reid to stabilize their back end.
    They also have these free agent or trade additions: Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers, Anquan Boldin.

    When Thompson banks almost 100% on rookies, he HAS DO DO BETTER than everyone else. Is that not obvious.
    While other teams also draft guys, they also fill holes via other methods.

    I'll say this: This off-season is the most important one for the Packers, and Thompson, since the 2008 or 2009 one. 2009 is the one when he tried to hire Mike Nolan, and then Gregg Williams, as Defensive Coordinator, eventually settling for Capers after Romeo Crennel, and Jim Haslett also went elsewhere.

    LongtimeFan says Capers contract might be up.
    If true, perhaps, bringing in a new Defensive Coordinator will help the defense figure out how to NOT MAKE KAEPERNICK LOOK LIKE a future first ballot HALL OF FAMER.
    In 3 games against us, he has over 1200 yards.
    His best TWO rushing games of all time are both against us in the playoffs.
    And his best passing tame ever was against us in the regular season.
    That's a serious problem.
    You solve it.
     
  11. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    The point is, that the Packer method of team building has brought a SB championship. And that was the idea, right? As a matter of fact, several teams seem to be shifting to the TT model. And which teams have won the SB recently? NYG, NO, PITT, and Ravens - all who don't use much FA. Teams that do pursue FAs, Eagles, Minn, and . . . seem to be sitting at home.
     
  12. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    1- You mean draft picks are supposed to make contributions early, help a team improve?
    I was told by some wait for 3 years...see if they develop by then.


    2- You mean NFL experience matters some? Like adding guys from other teams who have NFL experience (like Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers) isn't against the rules?

    3- Defense breaks down? You mean on 3rd & longs, in the playoffs? Always one key, usually young, guy? Jarrett Bush, you don't have the "youth" excuse anymore.
     
  13. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Frank, you're posts are getting angrier by the month....

    The NFL has not changed since you or I started watching the game. Some rookies contribute immediately and some don't. Eddie Lacy contributed right away and so did John Brockington. That doesn't mean that it's an automatic requirement that all rookies must blossom immediately or else. You take a very narrow and short-sighted view of the game.

    Your conclusion is also dead wrong about TT. His first-round success rate far exceeds any other Packers GM in history:

    Ron Wolf only went 7 of 11 in the first round with notable busts in Terrell Buckley, John Michels, Antoine Edwards, and Jamal Reynolds. Harrell is the only true bust so far in TT's first round. You want to throw Sherrod, Perry, and Jones all in as busts - understood, but it's short-sighted.

    The reality of the NFL with the new CBA is that first-round picks mean even less because their contracts aren't as killer as in the past. Now it's more about how many contributors do you get throughout your entire draft class. Ignore what round they came in...you need contributors.

    Last point - TT has a draft and develop approach. The last part is key. Those players need to be developed. If that's not happening, it doesn't matter what the GM does. They will always stumble upon immediate contributors but I argue that the best teams get those 2nd and 3rd year guys to step up.
     
  14. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    It's pretty simple. Ted Thompson's approach works. NFL fans aren't happy unless their team wins Super Bowls every year. Take a look at the teams that take this approach and you'll see most of the playoff teams over the past decade.

    Do I think Ted has drafted some total busts? YEP! He sure has... but as others have pointed out, every team does.

    We don't want to talk about injuries but guess what? They do impact the outcome of seasons. The Packers, despite massive injuries this year, have yet again won their division. The Bears and Lions, two teams that continue to play in the free agent market, YET AGAIN finished behind us and both were MUCH healthier than the Pack all season.

    We can get our testosterone all worked up and pretend that any season we don't win the SB is a lost season but that's just not realistic. The Packers just finished one hell of a season if you ask me. Like many "experts" have said...it's actually impressive what they were able to pull off this year.
     
  15. yooperpackfan

    yooperpackfan Cheesehead

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    The point is if you only use 1 tool out of your tool box and not use free agency and trade tools to plug holes you will consistently field one of the youngest teams in the league each year and Super Bowl wins will be few and far between.
    I like that TT has brought us success but without using all the tools at his disposal the Packers seem to now be stuck in 2nd gear.
    Simply using "draft and develop" Ted has to hit it big in every draft or the team will begin to go in reverse.
    I'm not saying go hog wild in FA like Philly did, but we have holes (too many) on defense that the draft may not be able to fill.
    Rodgers career is getting shorter and I want to see a couple more trophies before he is gone.
     
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  16. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Last year's Super Bowl champion Ravens won because of the great work by Free Agent addition Anquan Boldin.

    This year, you have the 49ers and Seahawks NOT sitting at home, and they have tons of free agents playing vital roles on their defenses. Defenses which are great by the way.
    The Niners have 5 of 11 starters on defense who were Free Agent additions: Justin Smith, Glen Dorsey, Ahmad Brooks, Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers.

    Seattle added not one, but TWO of the best 10 free agents last year, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. What that did was bolster their pass rush. Not a bad thing right?

    Denver, with the best record in the AFC, added DRC at CB, and Wes Welker at WR, both Free agents with obvious NFL experience. Michael Huff was a safety taken in the top-10 of the same draft we took Hawk before Vernon Davis and Haloti Ngata. He is a FA addition for the Broncos. Has experience.

    The Packers one Super Bowl in the Ron Wolf Era would not have happened with out key free agent additions on the defense.
    Same with the one for Thompson as Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett were essential.
    I guess it's just hard for him to get guys to come to Green Bay Village.
     
  17. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    That's almost being too generous, even Ron Wolf's hits were about comparable to Ted Thompson's more average first round players.
     
  18. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    A) I don't say they must blossom immediately. I am saying there are always a bunch of NFL rookies who DO, and youw ant to be one of those teams who DO get that help from the rookies. Kenny Vacarro helped the Saints defense a lot this year. So has Eric Reid. So did Harrison Smith last year. Safeties. Remember our safeties can't tackle, and they set an all-time record of combining to intercept ZERO passes this season. His reliance on 2012 mid-round draft pick Jeron McMillian doomed this defense, as well as waiting for MD Jennings to "develop".

    B) Ted's last 5 first round picks:
    Datone, Nick Perry, Derek Sherrod, Bryan Bulaga, BJ Raji. The results are average at best. Below average IMO.
    Again, if you IGNORE free agency, you have to do much better than average with your top picks. If you don't, well, you see teams like San Fran, Seattle, Carolina, New Orleans leap past you even with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers can't do it all by himself.

    C) The financial devastation to wasted high first round picks is less now in the new CBA. yes true. But we never are picking in the top-5 or high like that, where it's expensive and you tend to find the special talents. Last guy we had that high was AJ Hawk at #5 overall in a draft with special talented TE Vernon Davis and DL Haloti Ngata.

    D) Draft & Develop is great.... but here's the thing: With the salary cap era, the teams who REAP BENEFITS while those guys are on their cheaper rookie contracts are the teams who do best.
    Has Raji developed? Gotten better? How about Bulaga? Sherrod?

    Did Hayward get better in his second year?

    How about Jeron McMillian?
    MD Jennings?
    Jerel Worthy?
    C.J. Wilson?
    Morgan Burnett?
    Nick Perry?
    Any signs of progress from these players this year?
    THOSE are the reasons why our defense, once again, broke down.

    Guys coming out of college are physically ready. This isn't the NBA where they're one year in. They've usually been in college for 4 years, especially the Packers who don't like to take underclassmen.

    Final point:

    Ignore free agency/trade tools for roster assembly = better hit the top draft picks better than everyone else or else what has happened will happen again (we went from best in the NFL in 2011 to now just a top 5 NFC team)
     
  19. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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  20. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    This is kind of ironic. You point out Haloti Ngata and Vernon Davis as these great draft picks, neither of them did anything in the league until their third or fourth season. Ngata was seen as an underwhelming bust after his first season when he put up a whopping one sack and his second season wasn't much better. Michael Huff was considered a bust until his 4th when he emerged as a part timer, that's right he was benched during his third year. Vernon Davis was considered a bust until his 4th season, he did absolutely nothing until Mike Singletary's I want winners rant. Surely they were bad picks since they failed to make a positive impact for their first years in the league?

    As for the FA additions; Donte Whitner was signed back when we still had Nick Collins and Morgan Burnett was a promising rookie. Glenn Dorsey flopped in a 34 scheme. Anquan Boldin just wasn't at a position of need and has never been one to share the ball. DRC was a good pickup but cornerback wasn't seen as a position of need and it certainly didn't turn out that way this season and Wes Welker wasn't needed either.

    It's not go out and sign someone, it's whether you can find someone who will fit your team. That's tougher than you're acknowledging. Ted Thompson has shown that he will bring in FAs when they're affordable and in a place of need, we haven't seen that lately.

    Frank: I love you but you need to relax a bit. This season isn't worth getting worked up over and quite frankly I think we have the horses to take Seattle and SF down, we just need to get them healthy.
     
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  21. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    I guess using the immediate impact metric Datone Jones was a better draft pick than Haloti Ngata. Datone Jones produced three times the sacks and recovered a fumble his first season. Haloti Ngata produced 1 sack and 0 fumble recoveries as a first year starter, what a stud that Datone Jones is!

    Note: Ngata wasn't drafted to be a space eater he was drafted to attack the gaps.
     
  22. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I wasn't mentioning the guys like Welker and Woodhead because I wanted us to sign them.
    It was in response to the poster saying "the teams who use FA like the Vikings and Eagles are home now".... I was pointing out that great teams like Seattle and San Fran and Denver have all, recently, utilized the free agency process to fill holes on their teams and improve themselves.

    You're right about not seeing Thompson do that lately.

    That's why I think Bob McGinn was onto something about 6 weeks ago when he said he things Thompson should, and will, change his MO this off-season, and bring in a few guys finally via free agency.

    What I think many of us are not grasping is this: Most players around the league would rather go to a different city, team, than Green Bay.
    That's where the small village hurts. We're not going to overpay them, and our city doesn't sell them.
    Thompson has it tough regarding that aspect, plus he's not the most charming, charismatic salesman.
    Remember Woodson really really did NOT want to come to Green Bay.
    And Pickett had no other options really either.

    It's not as easy as snapping the fingers and saying I'll take this guy, and that guy.
    And Thompson won't get into bidding wars either, which is a good thing.

    But free agents like Bernard Pollard, Michael Huff, etc. did not break the bank. They had experience, and skills that would have been much better than banking on guys like McMillian and MD Jennings. I think he could have had guys like that.

    Hope McGinn is right this off-season.
     
  23. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    That's funny.
    Did Ngata lead them to a Super Bowl his first season either?
    Hopefully Datone can draft & develop!

    But don't you remember reading all those articles after we chose him, how he was special, how he played in this exact same scheme in college? How there would be little, if any, transition needed?

    I actually was sold on that draft pick, and will go on record now again as saying I liked the pick. Quote me there.
    :tup:
     
  24. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Bear in mind that Mike Daniels really stepped up this year, 6.5 sacks is damned good production for a 34 DE. It's tough for a rook when someone else steps in front of you. IMHO Datone will be the next hybrid player we see.
     
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  25. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    A question; if we have the same number of injuries as SF has had all year, including yesterday's game, do we not win?

    I think we do, and if we do, we're not having this discussion.
     
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