THE DON'S
Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball
TIPS ON HOW TO BET IN THE PRESEASON
By DonCanabis/TheDon
Analyst/Godfather
Analyst/Godfather
Ok tomorrow Preseason start, and with it time to do some prediction and place some bets. A lot of people recommend to stay away of betting in the preseason, that is the people that approach it in the same way they do the regular season. Betting in the preseason requires a completely different approach not only to the games but each week your approach has to be completely different.
So if you're not willing to put the time to do the research it's better you just wait for the regular season because two thing you can't do in predicting preseason games is, believing the best team will win and go with your gut, it will cost you a lot of money going with this approach.
The good thing about betting in the preseason is that it trains you to look for the little details, things that will help you during the regular season and can make the different between cashing in and getting a 3rd mortgage.
So here are the tips to betting in the Preseason.
- Treat each week different.- Ok, if you're a football fan you know that during the preseason teams uses the starters differently each week. In week 1 you might see the starters play 1 or 2 series, in week 2 they might play a quarter or half, week 3 half maybe 3 quarters. So take that to account before making a decision.
- Look for Depth.- Because starters won’t play a lot of snaps during the season look for teams that have good backups specially at QB and Oline. A veteran QB will move the chains and find holes in the opposition less talented and base defense, good Oline will give him time to look for them.
- Defense.- Teams with good defenses and depth in it are more likely to win in preseason because teams don't scout for preseason games. Usually teams play their base offense so they won't give anything away for the season. This gives a huge advantage to the defense. Finally, if you have a god defense playing against the 3rd oline they will usually win that battle and create turnovers.
- Coaches.- Teams with new Head coaches specially Rookie HC are more likely to beat a team with a returning coach, new coaches have to get a feel of the team plus they're trying to implement a new system so they will play the starters more and use some of their trick plays to see if it will work, plus they have to assure the owners and fans that they are the right choice. This also applies to teams with new OC or DC.
- QB Battles.- Teams that have a battle at QB or even have a QB that isn't established get's an edge during the preseason. Players fighting for a job or trying to prove they deserve the spot work harder and take the games more seriously plus they'll play more snap that season veterans. While Peyton Manning might play a series or two, Matt Leinart would play 1 quarter or a half.
- Injuries.- This one is easy if a team has an injured or banged up player they won’t risk it and use him, teams don’t want to lose their starters in meaningless games, plus they already know what they can do. That’s why that teams that have starts in their team and this players are the team (Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson) won’t use them as much or even at all during this games so take them away from your analysis and focus on the rest of the team.
- Home Field Advantage.- Let's get this straight we might think Football is a sport but in the end is a business and think of preseason as the runway for the fall selection. Owners will demand their coaches to play starters more throw some plays when they're playing at home, because they want to get the fans exited for the season so they buy more tickets expecting a good season for their team, plus happy fans drink and eat more during games.
- Think Small.- During the season you might do 3, 4 or even 5 team parlays to try and get a big payday, not during the preseason what I recommend it's study hard, pick the 3 or 4 games you like the most and make combination of no more than 2 team parlays. it's better to win small but steady that burn fast, it's a long season and you're just getting started.
OK so Good Luck and I hope this helps.
The Don
