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Article About Rodgers on Third Down

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by bfavre74, Nov 7, 2009.

  1. bfavre74

    bfavre74 Cheesehead

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    NFLStatAnalysis: Case Study: Third Down (Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Rodgers)

    Really interesting article (I'm becoming a fan of this guy). He talks about how great Rodgers is on 3rd and less than 8 yards (best in the league), but he sh*ts the bed on 3rd and long (worst in the league).

    Here's a quote from the article: "Rodgers' performance on third down has ranged from outstanding on third and less than 8 yards to
    putrid on third and long (including 5 sacks on 32 attempts).



    I don't know the reason behind the disparity, but it could be a red flag given Rodgers' well documented propensity to take sacks and put his team in 3rd and long situations."
     
  2. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Wow, great article you found man! You should post more often!
     
  3. DILLIGAFF

    DILLIGAFF Cheesehead

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    Ya I would say thats a good assestment of A-rod at this point in his development. He won't make that big long play when his back is against wall, he just not willing to take a risk.
     
  4. AzPackerfan

    AzPackerfan Cheesehead

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    Well, Brett Favre's had a passer rating of only 72.19 in 1993 (his 2nd year as a starter), which would place him somewhere around 26th in the league vs. Aaron Rogers current stats. Rogers is rated 10th (Favre's current stats put him at 11th). I just wanted to make that comparison to satisfy my own curiosity. I think a lot of people are underestimating Rogers talents. Of course people will say Apples to Oranges. He is extremely talented, especially given the line he is playing behind. I think in 2 years, he will be a top 5 qb in the league.


    I personally don't care if he takes the sack on 3rd down right now. If he gets sick of getting his bell rung, eventually he is going to learn to throw the ball away...and if we stop getting ourselves in 3rd and 9 situations, we will be damn near unstoppable!


    Sorry, the copy and paste to the NFLStatAnalysis site did not work here. I looked up Favre's stats for 1993 and did the calculations on the bottom of the page for myself. I'm not a real stat junkie but we need to put it all in perspective when talking Favre vs. Rogers comparisons.
     
  5. bfavre74

    bfavre74 Cheesehead

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    Here's the link to the article. Looks like the NYTimes linked to it as well,.
    NFLStatAnalysis: Case Study: Third Down (Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Rodgers)

    I actually agree with you. Rogers is only in his second season starting. While it's not fair to compare him to someone in only his second year in the league, we also shouldn't expect him to be a top 3 QB just yet. He's well ahead of Drew Brees' learning curve.

    I thought the article was interesting because it breaks down what's right and what's wrong. We watch the games and we can tell he's very talented, but something hasn't clicked yet. But, then, we have this ridiculous passer rating system that says he's number 1. (That's why I like the nflstatanalysis site - they've been working on a "better" rating - I discovered the site because the qbrating is featured in the NYTimes every week).

    I agree that Rodgers will be top 5 within a couple of years.
     
  6. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    that site........

    The guy does not use completion % as a factor for his rating?

    If thats the case, then that is a serious omission imo...
     
  7. Green_Bay_Packers

    Green_Bay_Packers Cheesehead

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    Thanks for the article, Its a great read.
     
  8. Travis

    Travis Cheesehead

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    ...In the mean time, he can't figure out what to do in the pocket and he's turning into a joke.
     
  9. Rebar1277

    Rebar1277 Cheesehead

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    WTF is this BS?

    I'am gratefull for Farve's time in GB but I'am also glad he is gone too.
    YES I SAID GLAD!!!
    He could not take the cold in that last playoff game with the packers (his dream snow game) and beside's what are we suppose to do let him jerk around the team every year?
    I dont know if i wanna play!
    What a crock of ****!
    On the lighter side maybe he did not wanna play because of the fact we have No O line. Ya never know he may not have really wanted to go back to GB!
    Plus i truly believe that if we had a O line on the team A-rod would be super bowl material with the guys we have, though it would help if we had a RB with a lil more talent!
    Lets put Traitor Farve to rest please!:viksux:
     
  10. Quientus

    Quientus Oenophile

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    So you are totally disregarding or forgot the game played against Seattle ?

    Because you are so right ... It didn't snow when Seattle was beat in the first play off game, right ? - And Favre certainly was playing a very crappy game against Seattle ... - I mean ... throwing snowballs (when there was apparently no snow ...) ...

    If you are going to rail and argue, atleast put it in some context before spewing forth your venom ...

    The article was about 3rd plays ... Which is a very narrow look at the overall performance so far of Rodgers ...

    Honestly at this point, I have a difficult time discerning whether or not Rodgers is truly that apparently "oblivious" to his other options, or if he simply just don't want to throw unless his receivers are wide open, or unless the Packers are behind ... - Even when coming from behind ... - The last game against the Bucs being different in that regard (as to taking a chance), it still seems that Rodgers most of the time just doesn't see his options ...

    Not to mention his pocket awareness, which by all accounts should be improving ...
     
  11. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Seattle, the same game Grant broke the Packers playoff rushing record? It's a little bit easier when you got a working running game to pass the ball effectively...

    Now I for one have said before I don't blame solely Favre for our wins and our losses... But things must stay in contest...
    ------------
    Now back to the article... It's the same thing with Rodgers. In this game, he played VERY poorly... Throwing into triple coverage, and completely missing his receivers...

    It's painful (at least for me), but take a look... NFL Videos: Buccaneers 38, Packers 28

    First interception, Just his fault. There was a receiver better positioned running a seam, but he chose DD, who was well covered.

    HOWEVER, that INT the ball was in Jennings 2 (TWO) hands. It should've been a touchdown...

    His third INT, the ball was too fast, but it still hit the receivers hands... It should be caught... It was a 4th and 12. He has fault, but I would say it's MOSTLY on the WR.

    AND this time, there simple wasn't any receivers open, most of the time... They were consistantly running a 10 yard or more routes... A prove of that is his running TD. NOBODY open...

    Rodgers was responsible for the loss, and this kind of perfomance is inacceptable from him. But saying that he refuses to look at his options, or simply can't see them is ludicrous...
     
  12. bfavre74

    bfavre74 Cheesehead

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  13. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I also thought that int to Jennings was right in the hands...

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Hauschild

    Hauschild Cheesehead

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    If you were familiar with Rodgers' college scouting report, this is not news. It was well-documented that Rodgers struggled with throwing receivers open, or in Layman's terms, throwing the ball BEFORE the route fully develops and the receiver is open.

    This is the reason that Rodgers struggles on third and longs - defenses know - without question - that Rodgers is going to throw, so the element of surprise is removed. Defenders plan for the pass and defend accordingly. If you're quarterback cannot "anticipate" his WR's getting open, it limits his effectiveness - especially when defenses know you're gonna pass the ball.

    This is a trait that I'm not convinced Rodgers can ever acquire.
     
  15. UncleMeat

    UncleMeat Cheesehead

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    3rd and long = deep drop.

    With our line and Rodgers confidence/coaching/experience... 5-7 step drops are going to be a nightmare for a long time.
     

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