For some more fodder, even though my tracking goes back to 1950 I have not fully analyzed drafts all the way back to then.
However, one thing that I have done back to 2008 is study how many times the Packers have bundled picks to trade up for a player. Clearly it isn't a proven track record for success. TT was the GM through the Jason Spriggs pick in 2016, and Gutekunst after. Both have averaged a roughly 33% success rate.
2008 Jeremy Thompson - DE 4th round Failure
2009 Clay Matthews - DE 1st round Success
2010 Morgan Burnett - S 3rd round Success
2012 Jerel Worthy - DT 2nd round Failure
2012 Casey Hayward - CB 2nd round Success went on to be a good CB for San Diego
2012 Terrell Manning - LB 5th round Failure
2013 Johnathan Franklin - RB 4th round Failure
2015 Brett Hundley - QB 5th round Failure
2016 Jason Spriggs - OL 2nd round Failure
2018 Oren Burks - LB 3rd round Failure
2019 Darnell Savage - S 1st round Failure picked up his 5th year option but then let him walk. He was an underwhelming starter
2020 Jordan Love - QB 1st round Success
2021 Amari Rodgers - WR 3rd round Failure
2022 Christian Watson - WR 2nd round Success
2024 Evan Williams - S 4th round ???
2024 Jacob Monk - G 5th round ???
2026 Chris McClellan - DT 3rd round ???
Failures 9 64.3%
Successes 5 35.7%
Not Yet Rated 3
TOTAL 17
First of all Evan Williams is a 2yr starter and that’s a success. He won the job in his rookie season.
RD4 starter in year 1,2 that’s not a ???
Secondly, I don’t like its not full disclosure. So Savage was acquired using RD3 from the previous draft. that’s all a relational draft transaction. Traded back for Day 1. Traded up using RD1+RD3+RD6. Yes Savage was drafted in RD1 WITH the equity Brian got from the previous draft moving around. If we wanted style points for a % round score? we’d just be conservative and never do any trading back and forth. Instead we started with a Day 1 in 2018 and RD3 in 2018 and ended with J’aire Alexander and Darnell Savage from that move the following draft. Thats the full disclosure.
Thirdly, one of the biggest trades in Packers recent history is.. We traded #27,#76,#186 for Jaire Alexander AFTER crafting a trade back first. While there’s obvious argument about his final injury situation, he was a 2-Time Probowler and 2 Time All Pro CB.
RD1 3/3 100%
RD2 2/4 50%
RD3 2/4 50%
(I disagree that savage failed for RD3 capital spent)
RD4 1/3 33%
(Evan Williams is a starter in rookie season)
RD5 0/2 0%
50% success rate on overall trades imo.
64% success rate Day 1-2 trades
20% success rate Day 3 trades.
Also
Smack ??