2018 Salary Cap Analysis

[HardRightEdge]

There’s no reason to believe Matthews is an asset at olb at this psooint of his career either.

Oh, really? Compared to what? Compared to $11 million for 1 year? Perhaps so. Perhaps not; there's no long term hangover into the great blue horizon. Ask the Giants about Olivier Vernon. Compared to a whole ton of other alternatives, including anybody else on this roster? Good luck.

It's pretty evident there's whole lot of folks in these pages who didn't happen notice that Matthews played some pretty good football last season. As good as he once was? No. But not too far off.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

7.5 sacks, average run defender, great run defender when the play is away from him. He's also on the downslope of his career, but there's a big difference between "declining" and worthless.

It's pretty evident there's whole lot of folks in these pages who didn't happen notice that Matthews played some pretty good football last season. As good as he once was? No. But not too far off.

Spot on both of you.

The Packers got caught in a big contract with one of their big stars. It happens to every team. You can't just bail out of a contract like Matthews, until the dead cap hit justifies it. Same thing with Cobb last year. Cutting a guy that is still needed and is still producing to save a million or 2 on the cap, just doesn't make sense, especially when you have nobody else that can improve the position.

 

[mradtke66]

he really can't play olb at a high level anymore

Um, 7.5 sacks? While not being the featured rusher? By being told/schemed to "rush contain"? That's great for your no. 2 edge rusher.

the Packers will draft an edge rusher with their first pick to replace him.

I like drafting an edge rusher early. I'd like 2 and maybe an FA, if someone of value is available. You just can't have enough of them. A group of Matthews, Perry, Biegel, Draft-1, Draft-2, and FA-1 would likely be better than what we have now.

Or put another way, strive to get a guy good enough that Matthews is "demoted" to Fackrell's role. Then try to keep him around 2 more years in that role.

 

[gbgary]

Um, 7.5 sacks? While not being the featured rusher? By being told/schemed to "rush contain"? That's great for your no. 2 edge rusher.

who do you consider their "featured rusher" if it isn't clay? he had an ok year but not a Claymaker year. those times are over. 3 of his sacks were against tampa early in the season. he's still got value and imo could have more of an impact inside. he can still cover and in the middle he can use his pursuit speed better. it will be interesting to see how pettine uses him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You can't just bail out of a contract like Matthews, until the dead cap hit justifies it.

Just to be clear on the facts:

Matthews: zero dead cap, $11.4 million cap savings if released
Cobb: $3.25 mil dead cap, $9.5 million cap savings if relased
Nelson: $2.3 million dead cap, $10.25 million cap savings if released

All are in the last year of the their contacts.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It wouldn't be a horrible move, just more than a little risk. An extra 2 years with the understanding that he's no. 3 and primarily the slot guy? He'd probably be worth it, depending on what the actual extension looks like.

He was still pretty productive the first five games last year, but yes, the end will come quickly.

I'm not signing a receiver who's lost his long speed out to age 35. I'd sooner go into free agency.

 

[gbgary]

Just to be clear on the facts:

Matthews: zero dead cap, $11.4 million cap savings if released
Cobb: $3.25 mil dead cap, $9.5 million cap savings if relased
Nelson: $2.3 million dead cap, $10.25 million cap savings if released

All are in the last year of the their contacts.

yup. prime for salary cuts & small extensions.

 

[gbgary]

I'm not signing a receiver who's lost his long speed out to age 35. I'd sooner go into free agency.

lost his long speed perhaps but he hasn't lost the mental telepathy he and Rodgers share. all he does is score td's.

 

[adambr2]

One simple reason I think now that Matthews avoids a cut or even restructure:

11.4M just isn't really that much anymore. Is he an elite player anymore? No, he isn't. But if he can have a rebound year after a knee cleanup, be around double digit sacks, and continue to be disruptive, he should be worth it. With no dead money, it's basically a 1 year/11.4M contract for Matthews -- take it or leave it. I'd probably still take it.

If he was on the books for $15M again like he was in 2017, might be a different story.

 

[brandon2348]

One simple reason I think now that Matthews avoids a cut or even restructure:

11.4M just isn't really that much anymore. Is he an elite player anymore? No, he isn't. But if he can have a rebound year after a knee cleanup, be around double digit sacks, and continue to be disruptive, he should be worth it. With no dead money, it's basically a 1 year/11.4M contract for Matthews -- take it or leave it. I'd probably still take it.

If he was on the books for $15M again like he was in 2017, might be a different story.

A "rebound year"? Haven't we've been saying that for awhile now? Matthews is late for dinner more often then not and some don't even have him as a top 50 player at his position anymore.

We're already a year late on moving on from Clay.

 

[mradtke66]

who do you consider their "featured rusher" if it isn't clay? he had an ok year but not a Claymaker year. those times are over. 3 of his sacks were against tampa early in the season. he's still got value and imo could have more of an impact inside. he can still cover and in the middle he can use his pursuit speed better. it will be interesting to see how pettine uses him.

Perry was clearly setup to be the premier rusher. He (Perry) got most of the time at ROLB until he got hurt late in the year. Once that happened, Matthews got more time at ROLB and started notching more sacks.

And don't get me started on how Capers was playing 'rush contain' or whatever you want to call it. He was very reluctant to turn either guy (Matthew or Perry) loose on the edge.

 

[mradtke66]

I'm not signing a receiver who's lost his long speed out to age 35. I'd sooner go into free agency.

Only reason I'd consider it is I'm not sure what state he's in. He looked good early before Rodgers got hurt. And he still got open with Hundley on his deep routes, but Hundley had a terrible deep ball.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A "rebound year"? Haven't we've been saying that for awhile now? Matthews is late for dinner more often then not and some don't even have him as a top 50 player at his position anymore.

We're already a year late on moving on from Clay.

Had the Packers moved on from Clay last year, by cutting him, if my math is correct, they had a Cap hit of $15.o75M by keeping him and $14.575 of that was dead cap. So a "savings" of $500K if you cut him. Would that have been worth it?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Perry was clearly setup to be the premier rusher. He (Perry) got most of the time at ROLB until he got hurt late in the year. Once that happened, Matthews got more time at ROLB and started notching more sacks.

And don't get me started on how Capers was playing 'rush contain' or whatever you want to call it. He was very reluctant to turn either guy (Matthew or Perry) loose on the edge.

Which brings up another point. Would we see a better, same or worse Clay in 2018 with a new DC?

 

[Mike McCarthy]

Which brings up another point. Would we see a better, same or worse Clay in 2018 with a new DC?

44 tackles, 8.5 sacks. I hope the production doesn’t go down much more than it already has

 

[mradtke66]

Which brings up another point. Would we see a better, same or worse Clay in 2018 with a new DC?

Hard to say. If the new DC is more flexible with his OLBs, probably about the same to more sacks. There is a time and place for turning them loose and a time to rush-contain.

Part of that is Perry. If he's healthy, he's younger and potentially more impactful. Matthews should probably no. 2 to him.

 

[brandon2348]

Had the Packers moved on from Clay last year, by cutting him, if my math is correct, they had a Cap hit of $15.o75M by keeping him and $14.575 of that was dead cap. So a "savings" of $500K if you cut him. Would that have been worth it?

You sure about that? I'm seeing they would of saved 11.1 Mill cutting him last year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247spo...y-Packers-2017-salary-cap-space--50938034/Amp

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You sure about that? I'm seeing they would of saved 11.1 Mill cutting him last year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247spo...y-Packers-2017-salary-cap-space--50938034/Amp

Not sure where they came up with that number and to be quite honest, I could swear when we were talking about Clay last year, there was a bigger savings. I think your article is saying there would be a $11.1M savings on his salary and bonuses, but that doesn't account for the dead cap hit of $14.575M.

This is what Spotrack.com currently shows for Clay:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/clay-matthews-5670/

YEAR AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING ROSTER WORKOUT CAP HIT DEAD CAP YEARLY CASH
2017 30 $10,100,000 $4,100,000 500,000 $375,000 $15,075,000 $14,575,000 $10,943,750($58,950,252)
2018 31 $10,400,000 $468,750 $500,000 $11,368,750 $11,368,750 $11,368,750 ($70,319,002)

 

[brandon2348]

Not sure where they came up with that number and to be quite honest, I could swear when we were talking about Clay last year, there was a bigger savings. I think your article is saying there would be a $11.1M savings on his salary and bonuses, but that doesn't account for the dead cap hit of $14.575M.

This is what Spotrack.com currently shows for Clay:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/clay-matthews-5670/

YEAR AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING ROSTER WORKOUT CAP HIT DEAD CAP YEARLY CASH
2017 30 $10,100,000 $4,100,000 500,000 $375,000 $15,075,000 $14,575,000 $10,943,750($58,950,252)
2018 31 $10,400,000 $468,750 $500,000 $11,368,750 $11,368,750 $11,368,750 ($70,319,002)

It's showing the dead cap hit as paid because it was last year and he was a Packer. If they would of cut him before the season there was roughly a 4 mill "dead money" or cap hit and cap savings of 11 mill of the 15 mill he made last year.

Edit: Regardless, Matthews didn't make an almost million dollar a game contribution. No reason to go down that road again at 11 million this upcoming season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

One simple reason I think now that Matthews avoids a cut or even restructure:

11.4M just isn't really that much anymore. Is he an elite player anymore? No, he isn't. But if he can have a rebound year after a knee cleanup, be around double digit sacks, and continue to be disruptive, he should be worth it. With no dead money, it's basically a 1 year/11.4M contract for Matthews -- take it or leave it. I'd probably still take it.

If he was on the books for $15M again like he was in 2017, might be a different story.

I tend to agree with that.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A "rebound year"? Haven't we've been saying that for awhile now? Matthews is late for dinner more often then not and some don't even have him as a top 50 player at his position anymore.

I would recommend you stop listening to or reading to whoever said Matthews in not a top 50 edge rusher.

 

[brandon2348]

I would recommend you stop listening to or reading whoever said Matthews in not a top 50 edge rusher.

For 15 million he should of been top 5. That's "game changer" $ and I wouldn't call his play "game changing".

 

[HardRightEdge]

For 15 million he should of been top 5. That's "game changer" $ and I wouldn't call his play "game changing".

That has nothing to do with your statement or my reply.

 

[brandon2348]

That has nothing to do with what your statement or my reply.

He is a 5-6 mill per year player at this point. He does some little things well still which allow him to be relevant. He dissapears way too much to command his salary. This list has him 56th. There are other I can provide.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2751015-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-edge-rushers-from-2017-season

 

[HardRightEdge]

He is a 5-6 mill per year player at this point. He does some little things well still which allow him to be relevant. He dissapears way too much to command his salary. This list has him 56th. There are other I can provide.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2751015-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-edge-rushers-from-2017-season

I started to go through the list and stopped at Lawrence Guy at #53, ranked 3 slots ahead of Matthews. There's a credibility issue here.