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2014 Draft analysis

Discussion in '2014 Draft Archive' started by captainWIMM, May 11, 2014.

  1. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Here´s my take on the Packers 2014 draft:

    1, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, FS:

    Absolutely like the pick. Free safety was our biggest need entering the draft and Clinton-Dix was wildly regarded the top cover safety in the draft. At #21 he was the obvious choice.



    2, Davante Adams, WR:

    Another pick I think will work out perfectly fine for the Packers. While he played in the weaker Mountain West Conference, there´s no doubt this guy is talented as he was able to record 233 receptions over the last two seasons, including leading the FBS with 131 last season. Had 2,957 receiving yards and 37 TD catches in 2012 and 2013 combined.



    3, Khryi Thornton, DL:

    I think Thornton could have been picked later in the draft and Thompson would have been able to acquire some additional draft picks and still select him. He´s pretty fast for a guy his size and the Packers like his upside. Has played in multiple fronts. He´s too easily blocked at the POA by a single blocker only and lacks pass rushing ability though.



    3, Richard Rodgers, TE:

    Same story as with Thornton, Packers could have probably been able to trade back and still get the guy. Packers like him for being one of the most natural ball catching TEs in the draft. He´s not a great in-line blocker and while being able to make incredible catches he does drop some easy balls. Critcizing him for losing weight in the 2013 offseason is ridiculous as the new coaching staff told him to do so.



    4, Carl Bradford, OLB:

    Absolutely love the pick, some scouts have rated him as early as the early second round, didn´t see a lot of them having him going after the third round. He´s a highly powerful, instinctive and versatile player capable of rushing the passer with speed as well as with club, rip and spin moves. Effective when teams run to his side. Sometimes emotions get the best of him and he should think about it once more before saying again that the refs got it right at the end of the ASU vs. UW game.



    5, Corey Linsley, C:

    I´m fine with the Packers bringing in some competition for Tretter, I´m surprised though Thompson selected a guy weighing less than 300 pounds. Linsley is a sound technician with some speed and instincts but lacks size and power.

    5, Jared Abbrederis, WR:

    Another pick I really like, providing great value in the fifth round. Abbrederis is a smooth route runner, great football character and work ethic. Provides some upside in the return game as well. I´m concerned about his injury history though.



    6, Demetri Goodson, CB:

    Not really like the pick that much. Goodson provides some athleticism, but is very raw and already 25 years old. Could provide some help in the return game. Started 68 games at point guard for Gonzaga.



    7, Jeff Janis, WR:

    Janis has been highly productive playing Division II football, had 189 receptions and 3,207 receiving yards with 31 TDs over last two seasons. He´s still raw as a route runner and has to do a better job of catching the ball to make it at the NFL level.



    Summary:

    I like most of the picks, although I think Thompson should have been able to acquire more picks and still draft the same players he did in the third round. The only pick I truly don´t like was selecting Goodson in the sixth round.

    But, not improving the ILB is inexplicable IMO. Ignoring the position looks like the handling of the situation at safety last year and we all know how that worked out. I would have expected Thompson to at least bring in some guys that surprisingly went undrafted (like Skov, Coyle or Bullough) but that didn´t happen either. This has desaster written all over it.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2014
  2. ExpatPacker

    ExpatPacker Cheesehead

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    But, not improving the ILB is inexplicable IMO. Ignoring the position looks like the handling of the situation at safety last year and we all know how that worked out. I would have expected Thompson to at least bring in some guys that surprisingly went undrafted (like Skov, Coyle or Bullough) but that didn´t happen either. This has desaster written all over it.

    Can only hope that Joe Thomas turns out to be the value pick of all UDFA picks>. Also, is Bradford a potential ILB?
     
  3. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Maybe Bradford could play at ILB, but director of college scouting Brian Gutekunst said the Packers will line him up at OLB first. Thomas has some potential, he finished fourth in the voting for best defensive player in the FCS.

    Nevertheless not addressing the position in the draft at all sounds to me a lot like the safety position in 2013.
     
  4. Sanguine camper

    Sanguine camper Cheesehead

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    I'm not real giddy about this draft. I like the WR picks and Bradford will make important contributions right away on special teams, the rest of the picks are guys that are not athletic enough. The bears were desperate for a safety but passed on HaHa. Why? Because he looks like a clone of Morgan Burnett. While he's an upgrade over MD Jennings just about anyone would be. In the third round TT picked two guys that he could have gotten in the bottom of the draft. He should have traded up to get Borland. The third round will be a huge sore spot for the Packers.
     
  5. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Haha is a slightly more talented Burnett, who can actually locate the ball.

    Adams is Jones. I am disappoint, but that guy does seem to do well here.

    Thornton supposedly was about to come off the board, and I'm never a fan of reaching before the other guy does. He's some strange combination of Worthy and Boyd.

    We didn't improve the TE position at all. Rodgers is a shorter Finley with streakier hands than post injury Fin and even worse blocking than rookie Fin.

    Bradford is explosive like a mug, great pick. Too short for OLB, but will be a great ILB.

    Lindsey wasn't a great pick. Slightly more athletic Gerhart who needs to add size. Technician who probably fits better at Guard, but just isn't big enough.

    Abby was picked just to shut up the guys who complain we never draft Badgers. Could be our return man, if he can stay conscious that long.

    Goodson has great shadowing ability, enough that I could realistically see him winning his matchup in preseason.

    Janis is a physical freak. If you like Julio Jones, youre going to love this kid in a few years. They play the same game. Raw, but I hope he makes the roster.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2014
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  6. thequick12

    thequick12 Cheesehead

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    Watching the Dix vid is a bit scary idk about him doesn't look as good as Burnett to me. Adams will be a better version of James jones which is good. Rodgers looks like he could have potential as a Finley type player. But yeah he and kt taken way to early. Ja and jj should both be good ja in slot role and jj outside. Wonder whats up with Harper thought he looked like a James jones type coming out last year. Bradford seems better suited as a bishop type ILB. The center could be ok hopefully Tretter can beat him out. If Goodson or ja can grab the return job that would be awesome. Thing I don't like about Goodson is 25 by season start is a bit old for a prospect that needs to be developed.
     
  7. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    First things first: This is the first draft in which Ted Thompson did not make a single trade. I’m not sure what it means, if anything, I just thought that was interesting.

    As to the picks I think Clinton-Dix was an obvious choice of value matching need. I don’t think there is any question safety play will be improved significantly. If he ends up being the best or second-best safety in the draft, this will be seen as a good pick. Thompson’s record picking WRs in the second round speaks for itself. Adams is not fast but if he were, he wouldn’t have been there at #53. Brian Gutekunst (Packers Director of College Scouting) said he’s “strong at the point of the ball and strong after the catch”. If his reputation for having great hands is true, any problems getting separation have a great chance of being “cured” by having one of the most accurate passers in the NFL throwing the ball to him. If captainWIMM is right and Thornton is too easily blocked at the POA by a single blocker, this will be a wasted pick. I think they think he has quick feet for a 300+ pounder. In the presser Gutekunst described him as having “so much twitch and upside” and said he’s a 312 pounder who ran a 4.9. Another Mike Daniels (re: quick twitch)?

    Rodgers may be the most controversial pick and IMO the most difficult to evaluate because of his change of weight and positions at Cal. Gutekunst said he is "one of the best ball skill guys in the draft. He catches it really, really well”. So the Packers think both Adams and Rodgers are very good to excellent “hand catchers”. I jumped the gun with Bradford writing he’d be slotted at ILB. (I think I did the same with Hyde and safety after last draft.) If he can effectively rush the passer from the outside, there’ll obviously be a place for him. If he can turn into a taller Chris Borland at ILB that’d be fantastic, but if they don’t start playing him at ILB right away – and it looks like they won’t - he likely won’t play there as a rookie. Interesting that Thompson picked a college OC in Linsley. He’s a life-long Packers fan, that can’t hurt. He’ll have to play OG too to make the active roster if he doesn’t start at OC. I heard/read someone say he’s about the size of EDS, which isn’t ideal.

    As a life-long Badgers fan and alum, I can’t be objective about Abbrederis. I obviously loved him as a Badger and love his story as a walk-on. I hope the way he schooled first round CB Roby portends well for his NFL career. I was surprised they picked a 25-year old at any position, but Goodson’s size and ball skills were attractive enough to overcome it. Still, a raw 25-year old better get over being raw pretty quick. From what little I’ve read about him, my guess is it will be Janis’ hands that will decide his NFL fate.
    - - - -

    I continue to get a kick out of fans thinking they know which pick(s) is a reach and which isn’t. As I mentioned in another thread, there are very, very few players who "slip under the radar" in today’s NFL. Even players from small schools are well-known among scouting services and NFL teams. So when Thompson, or any other GM, makes a pick that appears to be a reach it may not be because teams picking after the pick in question and before the team's next pick may be interested in that player. Other teams certainly will know about that player.

    And here’s the crux of it IMO: Fans are handicapped by: 1) Not having the coach’s tape available. That is crucial in evaluating some positions. Even if you watched all the games of a particular player, if you watched on TV, you missed a lot. 2) Access to prospects. Scouts and GMs like Thompson see prospects in person. Not only in games but in senior bowl and other all-star game practices. They have access to the player’s coaches. And they have the chance to sit down with players one-on-one. 3) Time. How many of you have the time to fully evaluate prospects? If you work for a living (not as an NFL scout), even if you had access to all the information and players the professionals do, you just don’t have the time to match what they do. 4) Expertise. How many of you have spent your lives working day-to-day for an NFL team, even for a year or two? How many know NFL schemes from the inside? How many have been trained by someone like Ted Thompson?

    I understand when the consensus of "experts" has a player ranked at 20th at his position and the Packers make him the 10th player picked at his position, fans get upset. Don’t get me wrong: I'm certainly not saying reaches don't happen. What I am saying is we as fans - even the most dedicated draftnik - should keep in mind generally we just don't know enough to accurately identify them. And there is no way of proving a pick was a reach because it would require a lot of GMs to declare their intentions while hooked up to a lie detector. So IMO when fans say or type, ‘they could have gotten ___ later in the draft’, there’s just no way for them to know that.

    One thing is certain: Early first rounders can bust and incredible gems can be found at the end of the draft. That should provide at least a bit of humility to GMs, professional scouts, media "experts", and particularly to draftniks who just don't have the information, time, or expertise the first two groups do. Playing GM is fun and questioning what your team’s GM does is a part of being a fan. But IMO no fan can definitively say the pick of so-and-so was a reach.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2014
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  8. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    What is funny, is some of the posters complaining about the 'reaches' in the 3rd, would have cheered such picks as Shane Skov, Dione Bailey, Max Bullough, Jackson Jeffcoat, Ikard, Kelcy Quarles, and a few others. These are all names I heard mentioned as far as being great targets for the Packers, yet all of them went undrafted. These names we all heard would have actually been huge reaches.

    I have already heard a rumor that Thornton would not have lasted much longer. True or not, I do not know for sure, but I am willing to give TT the benefit of the doubt and reserve judgment.
     
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  9. Dylan Hoppe

    Dylan Hoppe Cheesehead

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    I like the previous post because he's saying basically exactly what I've been trying to say. Those teams waiting for Thornton until the next round were probably pretty disappointed huh? It's all about amount of interest and Thornton fits well in multiple schemes IMO so that draws even more interest. Same thing with Rodgers, EVERYONE needs red zone threats and the TE position is gaining popularity every year so while he may have been ranked lower, his position is highly viewed upon.


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  10. Einstein McFly

    Einstein McFly Cheesehead

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    Folks, professional NFL GMs, coaches and scouts passed on Skov and Bullough 256 times. These are the best football minds out there. Maybe they're not as good as college football fans think.

    The ILBs weren't the biggest problem on the defense last year either. In the first five games they actually looked good because the dline was stuffing the run. After that Brad Jones was injured and they had olineman in their face all the time. Hopefully a healthy Worthy, a year older Datone Jones and Boyd and new guy Thornton will be able to consistently keep blockers off and allow our decent dbacks (seriously, with a healthy Hayward, we're really pretty strong) we'll be better. Of course, there will be injuries though....
     
  11. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I would bet a more common issue is either medical or personality. Some of these guys may be good players on the field but they will likely have a short career due to degenerative joint issues, suspected drug use, gang affiliation, arrogance to an obnoxious level, etc. None of that is visible from the game tape or combine numbers.
     
  12. Dylan Hoppe

    Dylan Hoppe Cheesehead

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    Knock on wood about the injuries my friend


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  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Sorry, but you´re in denial of reality if you don´t acknowledge that the ILB is a weak spot on the defense. Thompson did nothing to improve it during the draft which is a big negative about this year´s picks. Ignoring the safety position didn´t work out that well last year and I´m afraid the same could happen because of not drafting an ILB.
     
  14. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I agree that we don´t have enough information to accurately grade which round a prospect should and will be drafted and we have to mostly rely on the so-called experts. I don´t think the Packers do have a lot information about other teams boards either though and they have to guess as well where other teams have a player ranked the Packers are interested in.

    Would like to know where this rumor is coming from that Thornton would not have laster any longer. IMO quoting an anonymous source doesn´t provide any reliable information.
     
  15. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    At first I thought they ignored it but maybe they did not. First, after Mosley was picked there was a huge drop off at the position and overall talent pool. Second, the inside linebacker position in recent years has become the defense's version of the fullback position on offense. It is just not considered a high value position. Now I obviously see the need to replace Brad Jones and maybe they are trying as there was no clear cut replacement for him after Mosley that was worthy of a draft pick. Maybe they feel Bradford can move inside? And maybe they feel they have something with Joe Thomas? Thomas is very intriguing as is measurable's are very close to C.J Mosley's. In fact he has a higher vertical jump and bench press. His ten yard split in the forty is almost identical to Mosley's. I know he didn't play at Alabama and he is a tad smaller but he had a very decorated college career, being an all-american and the most vital component in the nations best run defense at his teams level. The more I investigate Thomas he is known as a very instinctive player. The Packers brought him in for personal workout and he was there first UFA singed after draft. We may have something there and maybe TT knew all along that he was the guy he wanted so he used the picks else ware.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    There´s no doubt there was a significant drop off after Mosley and there´s a possibility Bradford could be moved to the inside. Nevertheless I would have liked the Packers to add at least one prospect at the position during the draft (mostly noteably Smallwood).

    Thomas was a good player at South Carolina State, but you have to realize that he played at a FCS school. So my expectations for him aren´t that high. Wouldn´t mind being surprised though.
     
  17. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    I don't understand not getting Smallwood either in the 7th. If TT would of got Smallwood in the 7th I would really like this draft which I already like overall. Do we really need Jeff Janis? I totally understand that Thomas played at an FCS school but he wouldn't be the first to make the jump and contribute nicely in the NFL. He has put on nearly 20 pounds and has "NFL Numbers" all the way around. Plus, he isn't just a workout guy as he is a great football player too. I'm rooting for him and I think he has a shot.
     
  18. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I´m well aware of the fact that there have been FCS players enjoying a productive career in the NFL, but the odds are mostly against them though. Once again, I would like Thomas to make an impact with the Packers I´m just not expecting it to happen.
     
  19. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    Yeah it's a reach no doubt but he does have the talent which keeps me somewhat optimistic. He might end up as a good practice squad candidate. I think Bradford is going to end up there anyways as the sooner option. He lined up everywhere at ASU. He has a very strong lower half which will help him inside.
     
  20. TeamTundra

    TeamTundra Cheesehead

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    Overall I'm pretty satisfied with the draft results for the Packers. It would have been nice for one of
    the top four TE's to have fallen to us in rounds 2 or 3, but I will withhold judgement until I see R. Rodgers
    play in our system. Last year I thought Bak and Micah Hyde were reaches and they both proved they
    belong.

    Carl Bradford was one of my favorite picks, along with the WR's, and I think he will settle into the
    ILB position at some point. Jamari Lattimore may end up seeing more action this year as well. The
    drop off from the top ILB's to the next group was huge this year as many of the players - Skov, Bullough,
    Smallwood, etc. - that the draft experts had going in rounds 3 - 6 went undrafted or late in round 7.
     
  21. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Once again, FWIW Brian Gutekunst told the media that Bradford will line up at OLB at first. As of right now I don´t think the Packers count on him to be the starter at ILB in week 1.
     
  22. TeamTundra

    TeamTundra Cheesehead

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    Also, if Clinton-Dix proves worthy of his draft status, I think it significantly improves or defense
    in 2014. Just cleaning up some of the missed assignments would help tremendously. Add him
    and Peppers and a healthy Matthews/Hayward along with continued development of young
    players like Jones, Neal, Perry, Daniels, Hyde, Worthy, etc. and I think our D will regain its
    form.
     
  23. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Would have been great to get one of the top TEs, sadly they were all gone at our second round pick. I hope Lattimore doesn´t become anything more than a backup.
     
  24. TeamTundra

    TeamTundra Cheesehead

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    I'm sure he will start out as a situational pass rusher on the outside, but sooner than later will get a look at ILB.
     
  25. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Possible, not a sure thing though.
     

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