Were the Packers "Lucky" to win the Super Bowl?

[FrankRizzo]

There's luck in winning, but one could make a very compelling case that with Finley and the other injuried players in the fold, we win by a much wider margin, not needing that luck. And it was bad luck that those guys got injuried.

One could also make a compelling case that it was luck that made JJ fumble at the first game in Chicago, and if we win that game, we don't have to play against Philly. That it was luck that the 4th down catch by Gonzales against the Falcons wasn't reviewed, and so on...

Overall, we had more bad luck than good luck in the season.

Exactly. We had a lot of bad luck during the regular season, and fortunately that changed in the post-season, which is all that really matters once you get in.

Remember we wouldn't have even made it into the playoffs if the Lions hadn't won in Tampa Bay in week 16. You know how many road games the Lions had won the past 2 years?

 

[GreenBayGal]

Exactly. We had a lot of bad luck during the regular season, and fortunately that changed in the post-season, which is all that really matters once you get in.

Remember we wouldn't have even made it into the playoffs if the Lions hadn't won in Tampa Bay in week 16. You know how many road games the Lions had won the past 2 years?

A big THANK YOU to all the teams that screwed up on our behalf. :happy0005:

 

[PackersRS]

Exactly. We had a lot of bad luck during the regular season, and fortunately that changed in the post-season, which is all that really matters once you get in.

Remember we wouldn't have even made it into the playoffs if the Lions hadn't won in Tampa Bay in week 16. You know how many road games the Lions had won the past 2 years?

But in the same reasoning, we wouldn't need them to win if Rodgers isn't concussed at the Lions game. We would've probably won both that game and the NE game.

 

[OldSchoolFan]

Every team has it's ups and downs, it's good luck and bad luck...just like offense gets you to the playoffs and defense wins you titles. It also does not matter how you play in September & October, it matters how you play in December and January...

 

[weeds]

Guys.... the harder you work, the luckier you get. I'm not kidding..."luck" is a rather fluid measuring stick...if "luck:" even exists.

 

[Wood Chipper]

david akers had a lot on his mind

 

[PackersRS]

david akers had a lot on his mind

True that. Still he didn't blame it on that, but it's pretty clear it was the factor.

You know what's worse? ****** Eagles fan threatening him.

 

[VBJunkie]

Yeah, that was luck. The Packers had no control over if Akers kicked it straight or hooked it. Both of them.
Just like in 2004 when the bast*rd made the one to force OT after 4th & 26, and when the pr*** made it in OT to eliminate us.

We didn't do anything to make him miss or make them. Maybe prayer, but otherwise it was luck. And hey, there's luck on a lot of plays and I'm not apologizing for some good luck. We know we had bad luck before..... Jerry Rice fumbled. The loss to the Cardinals in last playoffs... that was all bad luck. This time it was good luck.

I never understood the person who pretends there's no luck involved when we win.

Maybe it's conditioning from watching Crosby shank important kicks.. but I knew 100% that Akers was going to miss that kick. Additionally, I didn't like his body language when he lined it up.. something about it clue'd me in... and then when he missed it so badly I was laughing.

NFL Videos: Akers, 41-yd missed FG

It actually looks like a bad hold.. watch toward the end at the 18 second mark and the ball is sorta tilted. Bad luck for the Eagles... no it's a bad hold by the Eagles.

I was surprised by the 2nd one missing... but he clearly hacked at it with that shank. The hold was good... the kick was not.

NFL Videos: Eagles' Akers misses another field goal

Want to see a great field goal by Crosby. The last points scored in the Super Bowl. Crosby from the right hash... be-still my thumping heart... I was dying even though that was a glorified PAT! And then it's all bad body language and nerviousness. And the kick is good.

NFL Videos: Crosby, 23-yd FG

Check out the 14 second mark... McCarthy drops the f-bomb after the field goal is made. He clearly was really really really hoping for a TD on that drive to salt the game away. Could you imagine what he would have said if Crosby had missed the FG????

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

How could a team with seven injured starters be lucky?

Any team that wins the SB has a little bit of luck, but luck didn't carry the Packers through the season. The Packers had to beat the #1, #2 and #3 seeds in the NFC on the road. The team was JUST THAT GOOD.

Let's look at the game mentioned above: Philadelphia - Packers win by 5, but Akers misses two FG's. If James Jones doesn't drop a for sure TD pass before half, Eagles lose by 12.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Let's look at the game mentioned above: Philadelphia - Packers win by 5, but Akers misses two FG's. If James Jones doesn't drop a for sure TD pass before half, Eagles lose by 12.

Let's keep it real now, come on..... James Jones drops a lot of passes.
David Akers rarely misses FGs like that.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Look, I'm still riding a high, on cloud 9, over our Super Bowl win.
Every day I look at the screensaver on my blackberry which is the big screen inside the JerryDome with the PACKERS SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS......

But think about this: had Akers not missed those kicks and they beat us, then Rodgers would be 0-2 career in his playoffs and McCarthy would be on a hot seat. Think about that..... everyone can play the what-if game, and that's true.

Thank God Akers missed em, that's all I can say. It changed lives big time. I think God blew those kicks wide so we the good guys could win. Rodgers and Woodson and Driver really deserved it.

 

[LombardiChick]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but The Humper's fumble didn't look like luck to me, either. It looked like Clay, forcing a fumble. Am I nuts?

Also:

Should have blown them out, but because of the Woodson and Driver injuries, we didn't.

Seemed like the Woodson injury was especially critical - the momentum changed right there. That's some really bad luck, and I think it was primarily skill (and will) that caused them to be able to overcome it. I very much believe the Packers were the better team, period.

 

[YouFrgotPoland]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but The Humper's fumble didn't look like luck to me, either. It looked like Clay, forcing a fumble. Am I nuts?

Also:



Seemed like the Woodson injury was especially critical - the momentum changed right there. That's some really bad luck, and I think it was primarily skill (and will) that caused them to be able to overcome it. I very much believe the Packers were the better team, period.

No question we were the better team. We were having our way with them until those injuries. Woodson and Shields go down at about the exact same time. That means you took away our fastest DB to cover Wallace and our arguably, (can't forget Tramon) best DB. Of course they are going to start making plays then.

Like you said, our boys willed that win out. After how dramatic and up and down a season they had, nothing was going to stop them. No question the Pack deserved every ounce of this Super Bowl, it was simply fate.

 

[neilfii]

Hands down, the Pack was the better team and the harder they worked the "luckier" they got.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Hands down, the Pack was the better team and the harder they worked the "luckier" they got.

That's right, and losing Woodson in that Super Bowl game made a huge, bad, difference.
BigBen was terrible with Woodson in, and then he lit us up after Woodson was out.
I think his passer rating was in the 30's when Woodson was in, and it was 100 after Wood left.
That was terrible luck to loose Chuck like that, and I blame Jerry Jones because that **** field was rock hard. No wonder why Romo's collar bone snapped on that turf. And Sam Bradford's too, in his last college game.

 

[GeeDogWarrior]

Hey, If we're lucky and getting flukes in our favor (for once), then Why Complain about it?

by the way, too all the people that say "Troy Polamalu wasn't 100%!".....neither was driver, nelson, shields, and woodson.

 

[mhnessie]

Hey, If we're lucky and getting flukes in our favor (for once), then Why Complain about it?

To be honest - lucky or not, who cares ?
Packers won, the Lombardi Trophy is back in town and that's what counts

 

[buckshotrob]

a lil bit we were lucky in the regular season we could have done better but in the playoffs we were unstoppable

 

[Croak]

They weren't lucky. They won by divine providence!

 

[greenandgold]

The Packers "made" their own luck!

Steelers were lucky we didn't score a bunch more.

 

[GreenBayGal]

The Steelers were lucky we let them take the field. :yahoo:

 

[FrankRizzo]

Think about this:

When a team has a +1 turnover advantage, they win 65% of the time.
When a team has a +2 turnover advantage, they win 87% of the time.
When a team has a +3 or more turnover advantage, they win 97% of the time and it's usually a blowout.

We had a +3 turnover advantage against the Steelers, and they still had the ball at the end to steal the game, and many of us thought they were going to do it to us again (as Greg Jennings mic'd up felt).

Maybe not "luck", but with a +3 turnover margin in the game, a game should have been a blowout. We were "fortunate" that we had the 3 turnovers. Thank God for Jarrett Bush and Howard Green, and Desmond Bishop for the sweet scoop-up on Mendenhall's cough-up. How many times have we seen players try to scoop up a fumble on the run like that, and they bobble and lose it? And we yell at them to just fall on the **** ball, not try to grab & run!???

In fact, in the 2008 NFC Title game, the Giants fumbled the punt with about 2 minutes to go, and Jarrett Bush had the same chance to grab a fumble, and he lost it trying to pick and run and we all yelled at him to just fall on the damn ball!!!!

 

[PackersRS]

Think about this:

When a team has a +1 turnover advantage, they win 65% of the time.
When a team has a +2 turnover advantage, they win 87% of the time.
When a team has a +3 or more turnover advantage, they win 97% of the time and it's usually a blowout.

We had a +3 turnover advantage against the Steelers, and they still had the ball at the end to steal the game, and many of us thought they were going to do it to us again (as Greg Jennings mic'd up felt).

Maybe not "luck", but with a +3 turnover margin in the game, a game should have been a blowout. We were "fortunate" that we had the 3 turnovers. Thank God for Jarrett Bush and Howard Green, and Desmond Bishop for the sweet scoop-up on Mendenhall's cough-up. How many times have we seen players try to scoop up a fumble on the run like that, and they bobble and lose it? And we yell at them to just fall on the **** ball, not try to grab & run!???

In fact, in the 2008 NFC Title game, the Giants fumbled the punt with about 2 minutes to go, and Jarrett Bush had the same chance to grab a fumble, and he lost it trying to pick and run and we all yelled at him to just fall on the damn ball!!!!

What's the stats when a team lose 3 key starters mid-game?

 

[FrankRizzo]

What's the stats when a team lose 3 key starters mid-game?

Depends who they are.
Shields is the #3 CB, and Driver essentially was our 4th WR this season.

But losing Woodson was a huge turning point because we had their offense bottled up pretty well for for the first 28 minutes... then around the 2-minute warning when Woody broke the collar bone on that dam hard turf, then Big Ben started to heat up.

I'm amazed that (as far as I know), the Steelers didn't miss any games from their 4 LBers, especially their 2 great OLBers Woodley & Harrison, all season! That's Lucky.

 

[TJV]

IMO Woodson and Shields are 2 of the Packers best 4 DBs, along with Williams and Collins, of course. As I've posted before, Shields was hugely important - he started on the outside along with Williams in the nickel allowing Woodson to make plays from the slot - the D played most often by Capers all season. I hate to think about Lee or Underwood having to take Shields role in 2010...