Rodgers against top defenses

[red4tribe]

I've seen a few references to Rodgers being 0-5 against top defenses in his career, so I decided to go back and crunch his win-loss record and stats. These numbers during the course of his career against defenses that ended the year top five in scoring, or currently are there this years (Broncos and Rams). I am not including the playoffs.

Rodgers is
7-11 (Three of these wins came against the Bears, one in 2010 and twice in 2012)
25 Tds
15 INTs
67.2% completion
92.0 Rating
2.3% int percentage (higher than usual for him)

So those stats aren't bad, however, since the 2013 season the numbers are...

2-6 (2-8 including playoffs)
10 Tds
8 INTs
59.7% completion
78.8 Rating
3.1% int percentage

So he was basically fine against top defenses until the 2013 season when it all started to go downhill according to these numbers.

 

[C-Lee]

 

[adambr2]

The home/road splits are starting to become a problem. I wasn't particularly worried about the Seattle game with it being at home, but road games vs top defenses have really become a struggle. I remember saying to a buddy last year that I was more worried about the game in Buffalo than home vs. New England and he thought I was crazy.

I wouldn't think that a longtime vet like Rodgers who is used to the spotlight would rattle easily, but he does sure seem to be getting rattled on the road against tough Ds, and his hard counts and line checks are mostly neutralized by hostile crowds.

 

[red4tribe]

The home/road splits are starting to become a problem. I wasn't particularly worried about the Seattle game with it being at home, but road games vs top defenses have really become a struggle. I remember saying to a buddy last year that I was more worried about the game in Buffalo than home vs. New England and he thought I was crazy.

I wouldn't think that a longtime vet like Rodgers who is used to the spotlight would rattle easily, but he does sure seem to be getting rattled on the road against tough Ds, and his hard counts and line checks are mostly neutralized by hostile crowds.

That does seem to be true in recent years. What I find so amazing is that that didn't seem to be the case earlier in his career, e.g. the 2010 Super Bowl run involved defeating the #5, #2 and #1 scoring defenses, and none of the games were in Lambeau.

 

[easyk83]

That does seem to be true in recent years. What I find so amazing is that that didn't seem to be the case earlier in his career, e.g. the 2010 Super Bowl run involved defeating the #5, #2 and #1 scoring defenses, and none of the games were in Lambeau.

But a very good Jets secondary allowed the Packers offense a paltry 9 points. It's reductive to blame this on Rodgers, much of the problem comes from scheme. We need to do more to give our receivers a tactical edge.

 

[red4tribe]

But a very good Jets secondary allowed the Packers offense a paltry 9 points. It's reductive to blame this on Rodgers, much of the problem comes from scheme. We need to do more to give our receivers a tactical edge.

By no means is it all Rodgers' fault, but I think the numbers are undeniable.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

By no means is it all Rodgers' fault, but I think the numbers are undeniable.

Hence, why they are top defenses.

The scheme with their current personnel only seems to dominate the weaker defenses. We don't have a single receiver who would be a Man coverage mismatch against a capable secondary.

 

[Circa1919]

It is strange that Rodgers was more successful against top Ds in the beginning as opposed to now. I was thinking about that old baseball mentality that teams with younger players are less threatened by the playoff spotlight as opposed to veterans, because they are still fresh in their career and not much is on the line if they lose. They still have years and years of game left to get those opportunities. Meanwhile, veterans know the game and all the possible ways to not come back the next year or the year after, so there is more pressure on them in high stakes situations than rookies.

Just a thought that may explain the big 2013 divide with Rodgers. He has plenty of years left in him to play, but I think now that he knows the stage, its given him more pressure--not less.

 

[easyk83]

By no means is it all Rodgers' fault, but I think the numbers are undeniable.

yes but how much do the numbers reflect Rodgers and how much do they reflect scheme? Is Brees much better against these defenses because he plays better or because the scheme he plays in puts him in a better position to succeed?

 

[Raptorman]

On the road throwing 0-1 TD, with Rodgers at QB, the Packers lose 70% of the time. In comparison, Brady lost 53%, P. Manning 44% and Big Ben 47% of the time. For some reason, if Rodgers does not throw 2 TDs or more on the road, the Packers suck.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

On the road throwing 0-1 TD, with Rodgers at QB, the Packers lose 70% of the time. In comparison, Brady lost 53%, P. Manning 44% and Big Ben 47% of the time. For some reason, if Rodgers does not throw 2 TDs or more on the road, the Packers suck.

That's still better than being the Vikings. The suck a lot.

 

[Raptorman]

That's still better than being the Vikings. The suck a lot.

Vikings road record the last few years sucks big time. But we aren't talking about them. We are talking about the Packers and Rodgers. Who BTW also has a losing record on the road outside of the NFC North. 16-18 I believe now after the Denver game.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

yes but how much do the numbers reflect Rodgers and how much do they reflect scheme? Is Brees much better against these defenses because he plays better or because the scheme he plays in puts him in a better position to succeed?

That's a valid question, especially considering how Cobb said their system was designed for 4-5 WRs. Prior to 2013, they had seasoned vets in Jennings and Driver, not to mention Nelson, Cobb, Jones, and Finley.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Vikings road record the last few years sucks big time. But we aren't talking about them. We are talking about the Packers and Rodgers. Who BTW also has a losing record on the road outside of the NFC North. 16-18 I believe now after the Denver game.

Good thing we aren't talking about the Vikings. That would suck.

 

[Raptorman]

Good thing we aren't talking about the Vikings. That would suck.

We will talk Vikings Packers in a few weeks.

 

[adambr2]

We will talk Vikings Packers in a few weeks.

A 1-1 split wouldn't surprise me at all this year, to be honest.

 

[desertdog55]

So.....what do we need to do?? Look for a different QB? Different OC? Different HC? How do we change this?

 

[Shawnsta3]

So.....what do we need to do?? Look for a different QB? Different OC? Different HC? How do we change this?

Many fans are quick to fire coaches or sign free agents but I think the simpler approach would be for Rodgers and his teammates just to play better.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Oline has been patchwork most of Rodgers career. Running game average at best more times than not... That's why we lose some games to great defenses.

 

[Narveson]

Scheme, scheme, scheme. The best article out right now on the Packers offense. Less isolation routes, more crossing routes. That's the way to beat man coverage.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/11/02/...kers-offense-problems-broncos-loss-nfl-week-8

 

[Sanguine camper]

Rodgers doesn't have the weapons he had a couple of years ago. The Packers have lost Jennings, Driver, Finley, and now Nelson. His receivers are not open! No qb can succeed like that.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've seen a few references to Rodgers being 0-5 against top defenses in his career, so I decided to go back and crunch his win-loss record and stats. These numbers during the course of his career against defenses that ended the year top five in scoring, or currently are there this years (Broncos and Rams). I am not including the playoffs.

Rodgers is
7-11 (Three of these wins came against the Bears, one in 2010 and twice in 2012)
25 Tds
15 INTs
67.2% completion
92.0 Rating
2.3% int percentage (higher than usual for him)

So those stats aren't bad, however, since the 2013 season the numbers are...

2-6 (2-8 including playoffs)
10 Tds
8 INTs
59.7% completion
78.8 Rating
3.1% int percentage

So he was basically fine against top defenses until the 2013 season when it all started to go downhill according to these numbers.

First of all Rodgers is 9-11 in the regular season (2-7 since 2013) against top 5 scoring teams in his career, including three games this season vs. Denver, Seattle and St. Louis. The other numbers are off a bit as well but overall connect the dots.

While that record since the start of the 2013 season is terrible you have to be aware that the offense scored an average of 20.6 points in those games, which is way above the average of points allowed for top five defenses. During his first 11 games, in which he has a 7-4 record, the Packers averaged 19.3 points.

The differnce since 2013 is the defense has allowed 24.4 points per game playing against teams with a top five defense compared to 15.8 from 2008-2012.

It´s pretty tough to score a ton of points against elite defenses and the Packers have done an above average job since Rodgers became the starter. The defense is mostly to blame for his less than stellar record over the last three years.

 

[easyk83]

That's a valid question, especially considering how Cobb said their system was designed for 4-5 WRs. Prior to 2013, they had seasoned vets in Jennings and Driver, not to mention Nelson, Cobb, Jones, and Finley.

Without a doubt Nelson and Cobb were the best 1-2 of Rodgers career but the quality of the 3 and 4 positions have slipped. That spread ISO concept works alot better when options 3 through 5 can actually take over a passing game. But alas it's tough to have prime targets in 1 and 2 and maintain good depth underneath that. I also wouldn't discount changes in league defenses, teams seem to put more focus in their secondaries and pass rushers now.

 

[adambr2]

Without a doubt Nelson and Cobb were the best 1-2 of Rodgers career but the quality of the 3 and 4 positions have slipped. That spread ISO concept works alot better when options 3 through 5 can actually take over a passing game. But alas it's tough to have prime targets in 1 and 2 and maintain good depth underneath that. I also wouldn't discount changes in league defenses, teams seem to put more focus in their secondaries and pass rushers now.

Which kind of brings up the question, what do we really have with Adams? 2nd round pick, great college tape and numbers, flashed some potential his rookie season. He was expected to step in and take a huge step forward this year with Nelson out, and so far that just hasn't happened. Granted he's been hurt some, but even when healthy, him and Rodgers just never seem to be on the same page.

 

[easyk83]

Which kind of brings up the question, what do we really have with Adams? 2nd round pick, great college tape and numbers, flashed some potential his rookie season. He was expected to step in and take a huge step forward this year with Nelson out, and so far that just hasn't happened. Granted he's been hurt some, but even when healthy, him and Rodgers just never seem to be on the same page.

That's the thing, I don't think he's healthy yet. He looked slow against Denver, much slower than he looked last year.