H
HardRightEdge
Guest
Here's one way to ***** the value proposition:
If you pay a short-to-intermediate receiver, in mostly a possession role, which is where Jennings is at, what do you need to get from him to a receive a $10 million contribution to winning?
At 140 targets, with a 60% completion rate (taking into account a lower rate for WRs and a conservative drop %), you come up with 84 catches. At 13 yards per catch, that gets you to 1,092 yards. Let's throw in a generous 10 TDs.
Do those numbers justify a $10 mil salary with Aaron Rodgers at QB? Borderline, to be generous.
So then the question becomes, how the heck is Greg Jennings going to get anything close to 140 targets in this offense? He won't. He's worth a lot more to somebody else who can get him the ball more often, even if out of necessity.
If you pay a short-to-intermediate receiver, in mostly a possession role, which is where Jennings is at, what do you need to get from him to a receive a $10 million contribution to winning?
At 140 targets, with a 60% completion rate (taking into account a lower rate for WRs and a conservative drop %), you come up with 84 catches. At 13 yards per catch, that gets you to 1,092 yards. Let's throw in a generous 10 TDs.
Do those numbers justify a $10 mil salary with Aaron Rodgers at QB? Borderline, to be generous.
So then the question becomes, how the heck is Greg Jennings going to get anything close to 140 targets in this offense? He won't. He's worth a lot more to somebody else who can get him the ball more often, even if out of necessity.