15th overall pick

[tynimiller]

Elijah Moore is a diva mentality issue though, without a veteran controller I fear he’s gonna continue to be that. Not sure I’d risk bringing him in. I’d honestly be more inclined to try Mims in return if Jets are dealing - probably won’t shave as much Draft equity but gives a big FAST man looking to build

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Elijah Moore is a diva mentality issue though, without a veteran controller I fear he’s gonna continue to be that. Not sure I’d risk bringing him in. I’d honestly be more inclined to try Mims in return if Jets are dealing - probably won’t shave as much Draft equity but gives a big FAST man looking to build

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mims get cut. He appears to be right up there with Amari Rodgers on the bust train. 30 games, 0 TD's and only 42 receptions for 676 yds. I'd rather they give us a 5th rounder.

This article was written before last season, but his 2022 season was even more dismal.

The downfall of Denzel Mims: Here's what really happened to the Jets WR

A deep dive into Denzel Mims' stats and film reveals why the New York Jets wide receiver experienced a dismal 2021 season.

jetsxfactor.com

 

[tynimiller]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mims get cut. He appears to be right up there with Amari Rodgers on the bust train. 30 games, 0 TD's and only 42 receptions for 676 yds. I'd rather they give us a 5th rounder.

This article was written before last season, but his 2022 season was even more dismal.

The downfall of Denzel Mims: Here's what really happened to the Jets WR

A deep dive into Denzel Mims' stats and film reveals why the New York Jets wide receiver experienced a dismal 2021 season.

jetsxfactor.com

Of course, and a lot has been ****** QB play, along with better WR taking advantage of chances.

Mims is still a unique traitsy guy and is the perfect roster guy to ask for that Jets can move on from and could flourish here with MLF…

I don’t personally want any picks that will erode draft equity back.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

When you are consistently picking late in round 1, what are you expecting? An immediate impact player? Good luck and yes, I know that there have been, so I don't need you to cherry pick a list. But sift through the last 20 first rounds and look at the players chosen 15th and later, you will see that many were not the impact player you are talking about.

I understand that it's more difficult to select an immediate impact late in the first round. My point was that I would have preferred the Packers to select prospects at a position on which they had a chance to contribute from the get-go instead of settling for ones that were primed to be a backup early on.

My only surprise with the Gary pick was that we had just signed 2 high priced FA OLB's ( Z Dog and Preston Smith). Given Gary played for the Wolverines, I knew a lot about him. Just felt like a "luxury" that we didn't need at the time. Turned out to be a great pick so far.

That actually supports the claim I'm trying to make above.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Of course, and a lot has been ****** QB play, along with better WR taking advantage of chances.

Mims is still a unique traitsy guy and is the perfect roster guy to ask for that Jets can move on from and could flourish here with MLF…

I don’t personally want any picks that will erode draft equity back.

If Moore is a diva, then yeah, I'd stay away. Those guys can ruin a locker room. And we already have a diva.

 

[Magooch]

My only surprise with the Gary pick was that we had just signed 2 high priced FA OLB's ( Z Dog and Preston Smith). Given Gary played for the Wolverines, I knew a lot about him. Just felt like a "luxury" that we didn't need at the time. Turned out to be a great pick so far.

I think that's kind of the argument though. I like Gary and obviously am happy that it panned out, but at the same time...If we look at who was available in the 2019 draft at pick #12...can anyone say with confidence "Taking Rashan Gary with #12 will do more to push us closer to winning the Super Bowl in 2019 than any other player at this point"? Could anyone say "Selecting Jordan Love with the #26 pick will get us closer to winning the Super Bowl in 2020/21 than any other selection would"?

Probably not. And that's okay, sometimes you do pick for the future. But the point is just that Gute has seemingly leaned more towards projects and long-term value than immediate impact. Maybe players like Gary, Dillon, Love, etc are better for long-term sustained success, but probably not going to do the most to push us towards a SB in the immediate season that they were drafted, either. Is that better than a player who gets you "closer" in year one but doesn't offer as much long-term value? Not really, but not really worse either IMO. Just a difference of approach and that's all

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think that's kind of the argument though. I like Gary and obviously am happy that it panned out, but at the same time...If we look at who was available in the 2019 draft at pick #12...can anyone say with confidence "Taking Rashan Gary with #12 will do more to push us closer to winning the Super Bowl in 2019 than any other player at this point"? Could anyone say "Selecting Jordan Love with the #26 pick will get us closer to winning the Super Bowl in 2020/21 than any other selection would"?

Probably not. And that's okay, sometimes you do pick for the future. But the point is just that Gute has seemingly leaned more towards projects and long-term value than immediate impact. Maybe players like Gary, Dillon, Love, etc are better for long-term sustained success, but probably not going to do the most to push us towards a SB in the immediate season that they were drafted, either. Is that better than a player who gets you "closer" in year one but doesn't offer as much long-term value? Not really, but not really worse either IMO. Just a difference of approach and that's all

Well said. And outside the top 10, maybe the top 5, it's hard to find NFL-ready guys in the draft. And there seems to ne a greater chance of a bust.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think that's kind of the argument though. I like Gary and obviously am happy that it panned out, but at the same time...If we look at who was available in the 2019 draft at pick #12...can anyone say with confidence "Taking Rashan Gary with #12 will do more to push us closer to winning the Super Bowl in 2019 than any other player at this point"? Could anyone say "Selecting Jordan Love with the #26 pick will get us closer to winning the Super Bowl in 2020/21 than any other selection would"?

Probably not. And that's okay, sometimes you do pick for the future. But the point is just that Gute has seemingly leaned more towards projects and long-term value than immediate impact. Maybe players like Gary, Dillon, Love, etc are better for long-term sustained success, but probably not going to do the most to push us towards a SB in the immediate season that they were drafted, either. Is that better than a player who gets you "closer" in year one but doesn't offer as much long-term value? Not really, but not really worse either IMO. Just a difference of approach and that's all

As a GM, most of your moves better be done with an eye toward the short and long term future, especially when it comes to draft picks. Afterall, how many rookies have a large impact in their first season? Not many and that is where you use Free Agency to try and fix your immediate needs. Gary was most definitely an unpolished gem coming out of Michigan. I think Gute and the scouts were very impressed with his work ethic, knew they might eventually be getting a top OLB and thus were willing to invest now and wait for that payout to work. As it turns out, it appears they guessed right. I am hoping the same goes for Jordan Love.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That actually supports the claim I'm trying to make above.

Gary was picked with the 12th pick of the draft, so no, it doesn't support your claim.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Gary was picked with the 12th pick of the draft, so no, it doesn't support your claim.

Well said. Even though Gary didn't have a lot of sack production at MI, he was widely expected to be very effective at Edge, and he has been. As far as I'm concerned, he was an impact player, with the luxury as a rookie to play and learn behind the Smiths. That's nearly a perfect situation. Too bad about the ACL, but he'll be back. And with Z gone and Preston S declining, Gary was the right pick at the right time.

 

[tynimiller]

Well said. Even though Gary didn't have a lot of sack production at MI, he was widely expected to be very effective at Edge, and he has been. As far as I'm concerned, he was an impact player, with the luxury as a rookie to play and learn behind the Smiths. That's nearly a perfect situation. Too bad about the ACL, but he'll be back. And with Z gone and Preston S declining, Gary was the right pick at the right time.

Just some correction, well in my opinion correction - of course some might disagree - but I take exception only with the claim Preston declining. Now this is purely production outputs so of course not a for fact type thing - you can put up numbers and perhaps not be the player they indicate (good or bad)....BUT Preston has been still producing at a high high clip.

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(Those are per PFF)

For the record Preston has had three of his best sack totals in GB seasons, 3 of his top 5 total pressure seasons including his best two. He only had one total tackle season over 30 in WAS...while only one in GB with less. Three of his best four seasons grading wise per PFF have been in GB, with two of his best three in the past two.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Just some correction, well in my opinion correction - of course some might disagree - but I take exception only with the claim Preston declining. Now this is purely production outputs so of course not a for fact type thing - you can put up numbers and perhaps not be the player they indicate (good or bad)....BUT Preston has been still producing at a high high clip.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

(Those are per PFF)

For the record Preston has had three of his best sack totals in GB seasons, 3 of his top 5 total pressure seasons including his best two. He only had one total tackle season over 30 in WAS...while only one in GB with less. Three of his best four seasons grading wise per PFF have been in GB, with two of his best three in the past two.

Thanks for the stats Ty and I retract my "Preston declining" comment. These are good numbers that actually show he's getting closer to 2019 numbers. Good to know. FWIW, I think that takes some pressure off to prioritize an Edge guy in round 1. TE and S are bigger needs, IMO. I'd just roll with Preston S until Gary gets back. Thanks again for the info!

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks for the stats Ty and I retract my "Preston declining" comment. These are good numbers that actually show he's getting closer to 2019 numbers. Good to know. FWIW, I think that takes some pressure off to prioritize an Edge guy in round 1. TE and S are bigger needs, IMO. I'd just roll with Preston S until Gary gets back. Thanks again for the info!

I'm all for the right edge in first personally. I always want three guys there preferrably an older vet (check), a younger vet that is still progressing (check when Gary is back) and a rookie contract guy you think is worthy of being in on a lot of snaps or starting (not checked) - we have that solid 4th (Enagbare).

Is Edge a dire need position no...but a young, high RAS prospect is there I say snaggle him makes sense if Gute wants to.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm all for the right edge in first personally. I always want three guys there preferrably an older vet (check), a younger vet that is still progressing (check when Gary is back) and a rookie contract guy you think is worthy of being in on a lot of snaps or starting (not checked) - we have that solid 4th (Enagbare).

Is Edge a dire need position no...but a young, high RAS prospect is there I say snaggle him makes sense if Gute wants to.

It sounds like the guy is Van Ness, although I've seen him mocked top 10. I still like a TE in round 1. There are 4 to 5 solid guys, not all round 1.

 

[tynimiller]

It sounds like the guy is Van Ness, although I've seen him mocked top 10. I still like a TE in round 1. There are 4 to 5 solid guys, not all round 1.

Musgrave or Mayer Day 1 or any of the other top favorites of mine Day 2 (Washington, Kraft, Kincaid)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Probably not. And that's okay, sometimes you do pick for the future. But the point is just that Gute has seemingly leaned more towards projects and long-term value than immediate impact. Maybe players like Gary, Dillon, Love, etc are better for long-term sustained success, but probably not going to do the most to push us towards a SB in the immediate season that they were drafted, either. Is that better than a player who gets you "closer" in year one but doesn't offer as much long-term value? Not really, but not really worse either IMO. Just a difference of approach and that's all

With Rodgers getting up there in age I would have definitely preferred a completely different approach, especially in the 2020 draft.

As a GM, most of your moves better be done with an eye toward the short and long term future, especially when it comes to draft picks.

In my opinion Gutekunst hasn't focused on the short term future enough.

Gary was picked with the 12th pick of the draft, so no, it doesn't support your claim.

The point remains the same no matter with which pick Gary was selected.

Even though Gary didn't have a lot of sack production at MI, he was widely expected to be very effective at Edge, and he has been. As far as I'm concerned, he was an impact player, with the luxury as a rookie to play and learn behind the Smiths. That's nearly a perfect situation.

Don't get me wrong, Gary has developed into a great player for the Packers. But Gutekunst wasn't focusing on the upcoming season when selecting him back in 2019. That's my point that he should do that more often though.

 

[tynimiller]

Don't get me wrong, Gary has developed into a great player for the Packers. But Gutekunst wasn't focusing on the upcoming season when selecting him back in 2019. That's my point that he should do that more often though.

I agree, he should draft more Gary type guys more LOL

He for sure doesn't allow immediate needs impact his picking...sometimes they align - sometimes they don't, he doesn't seem to care.

 

[Mondio]

I agree, he should draft more Gary type guys more LOL

He for sure doesn't allow immediate needs impact his picking...sometimes they align - sometimes they don't, he doesn't seem to care.

When you pick guys as good as Gary, you're doing a good job. Pick them at every level in the draft and I don't care if they take 2,3,4 years to flourish.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Musgrave or Mayer Day 1 or any of the other top favorites of mine Day 2 (Washington, Kraft, Kincaid)

The Athletic mocked Musgrave to the Packers in round 2 at #46 overall (they mocked S Branch in round 1). I'd certainly be ok with this, although I still prefer Mayer in round 1.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The point remains the same no matter with which pick Gary was selected.

I made a statement about players in the back half of the first round, often not contributing much as rookies and thus they shouldn't be relied on to. You completely spun it to something I wasn't even talking about.

When you are consistently picking late in round 1, what are you expecting? An immediate impact player? Good luck and yes, I know that there have been, so I don't need you to cherry pick a list. But sift through the last 20 first rounds and look at the players chosen 15th and later, you will see that many were not the impact player you are talking about.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

He for sure doesn't allow immediate needs impact his picking...sometimes they align - sometimes they don't, he doesn't seem to care.

That's definitely true. With a HOF quarterback getting up there in age I would have liked Gutekunst to focus more on immediate needs though.

 

[tynimiller]

That's definitely true. With a HOF quarterback getting up there in age I would have liked Gutekunst to focus more on immediate needs though.

It is a coin with two sides that I could argue strongly either way for sure.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree, he should draft more Gary type guys more LOL

He for sure doesn't allow immediate needs impact his picking...sometimes they align - sometimes they don't, he doesn't seem to care.

I do wish that Gluten would draft for immediate need when it's obvious help is needed. In this draft, I'd like to see a TE (Mayer) or Safety (Branch) who could almost certainly help immediately. And especially this year, with 4 or 5 very good TE candidates, one should be picked in the first or second round (if available).

As for Safety, I don't think Amos will be back and Savage is kinda useless. So if they don't get a guy like Branch, they'll need to do something in FA. I read yesterday that they were now, magically, like $20 mil under cap, from $20 mil over. So they can spend something in FA. (When do they have to pay for all this cap magic every year? Nevermind. that's another thread.)

 

[tynimiller]

I do wish that Gluten would draft for immediate need when it's obvious help is needed. In this draft, I'd like to see a TE (Mayer) or Safety (Branch) who could almost certainly help immediately. And especially this year, with 4 or 5 very good TE candidates, one should be picked in the first or second round (if available).

As for Safety, I don't think Amos will be back and Savage is kinda useless. So if they don't get a guy like Branch, they'll need to do something in FA. I read yesterday that they were now, magically, like $20 mil under cap, from $20 mil over. So they can spend something in FA. (When do they have to pay for all this cap magic every year? Nevermind. that's another thread.)

Savage proved last year worthwhile to have at slot - but not at his fifth year option cost, alas though we cannot change that now.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Savage proved last year worthwhile to have at slot - but not at his fifth year option cost, alas though we cannot change that now.

I truly hope that Savage's off year was partially a result of what sounds like dysfunctional coaching between Barry and Jerry Gray. Amos didn't seem to have a stellar year either and at times, both Douglas and Alexander seemed off of their games. Ideally, I would have like to have seen Barry replaced, but it is pretty obvious that MLF has his reasons for keeping him.