Your Packer Big Board

[Dantés]

The Packers definitely shouldn't use the 12th pick on a player needing a season or two to develop.

And they shouldn't assume that a guy who couldn't get up to a sustainable 240+ playing weight in college is going to suddenly be able to in the pros.

 

[OldSchool101]

1. N. Bosa
2. J. Allen
3. Q. Williams
4. E. Oliver
5. D. White
6. J. Taylor
7. R. Gary
8. A. Dillard.
9. M. Sweat
10. C. Ferrell
11. C. Wilkins
12. J. Williams

 

[GleefulGary]

And they shouldn't assume that a guy who couldn't get up to a sustainable 240+ playing weight in college is going to suddenly be able to in the pros.

It's reasonable to assume that he will be able to gain weight and sustain that weight better than he did in college.

It will take more than a year, for sure, but the difference between a college regiment and a professional one is astounding. And I repeat, FSU is an overall disaster under Willie Taggart.

 

[GleefulGary]

I'm somewhat of an ACC nut. I follow/watch a lot of guys there. Burns has been the top pass rusher for a couple years now. He's a better prospect than Harold Landry, hands down. I wouldn't take him at 12, but at 30...in a heart beat.

 

[Dantés]

It's reasonable to assume that he will be able to gain weight and sustain that weight better than he did in college.

It will take more than a year, for sure, but the difference between a college regiment and a professional one is astounding. And I repeat, FSU is an overall disaster under Willie Taggart.

Agree to disagree. I think it's reasonable to say that it's one of a number of possible outcomes, but I think assuming that it will happen, to the point of investing a top 20 pick, is very dicey.

I know I'm a broken record, but we have seen a decent sample of guys like that come out of major college football programs, in every case there were people saying that they would add and sustain functional weight, and in most cases it did not happen.

Barkevious Mingo is the best comparison that comes to mind. He was an eerily similar athlete who I bought into based on the promise of adding size and functional strength in an NFL program. It never happened and he was a pretty big bust. But you also have Dion Jordan, Leonard Floyd, Aaron Maybin, Shea McClellin, etc.

And just to head this off-- I am not saying they are identical prospects. I know that Burns is a far better technician than Mingo was coming out of college. But the potential crippling weakness is the same.

I guess my main point is that if we're going to assume that Burns is going to add the weight, keep it on, and be fine, I'd like to see some examples of guys like this doing that.

 

[GleefulGary]

Cam Wake and Jason Taylor.

 

[Dantés]

Cam Wake and Jason Taylor.

Cam Wake is the best example. And because he was so undersized for the position, he had to go the UDFA > CFL > NFL route.

I am not old enough to comment on a Jason Taylor comparison.

 

[GleefulGary]

Cam Wake is the best example. And because he was so undersized for the position, he had to go the UDFA > CFL > NFL route.

I am not old enough to comment on a Jason Taylor comparison.

Taylor came into the league at 6'6 235 and played the majority of his career at 245ish.

There are success and failures with Burn's body type. I've seen him play and succeed for a number of years, so I'm bullish on him. He's better than Landry, and Landry played pretty decent for a rookie.

 

[Dantés]

Taylor came into the league at 6'6 235 and played the majority of his career at 245ish.

There are success and failures with Burn's body type. I've seen him play and succeed for a number of years, so I'm bullish on him. He's better than Landry, and Landry played pretty decent for a rookie.

Landry was also a lot bigger at Boston College than Burns was at FSU. Which is something else I should say-- I am not trying to say that 6'5" 250 at the combine is prohibitive. My hang up is that when I watch him at FSU, he is disturbingly thin and it shows up in his game. Had he played in college at his combine size, I wouldn't be saying any of this. But I'm dubious of his ability to do for an NFL season what he did for the combine.

I'm sure there have been and will be successes with this type of player. So I comfortable saying that it's reasonable to project a possible range of outcomes. But I can't get to a point of assuming an outcome that has historically proven to be more of an exception than a rule.

 

[wist43]

It's reasonable to assume that he will be able to gain weight and sustain that weight better than he did in college.

It will take more than a year, for sure, but the difference between a college regiment and a professional one is astounding. And I repeat, FSU is an overall disaster under Willie Taggart.

These kids are just starting to fill out in their early 20's.

I have no doubt Burns will carry more weight effectively.

 

[GermanPacker]

I hope the below article isn’t true about Packers being interested in DK Metcalf at 12...

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...s-hearing-buzz-around-packers-wr-d-k-metcalf/

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Given what Gute did in Free Agecy, sign Z. Smith and P. Smith to 4 year contracts, unless the plan is to play one of them inside, I really think EDGE is not a position I want to see the Packers use any of their first 4 picks on. I would much rather see those picks being used on positions of real need. (OL, S, DL, TE, ILB, WR). So depending on how the board shapes up in Round 1, I expect the Packers to take a player that addresses one of those needs. Obviously with the caveat that if a player from another position that the Packers have rated much higher happens to fall, they might go with him (BPA) or trade back.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Given what Gute did in Free Agecy, sign Z. Smith and P. Smith to 4 year contracts, unless the plan is to play one of them inside, I really think EDGE is not a position I want to see the Packers use any of their first 4 picks on.

Even if both Preston and Zadarius primarily line up on the edge the Packers still need to add some quality depth at the position in my opinion as I don't expect Fackrell to replicate last season's numbers by any means.

 

[Dantés]

Even if both Preston and Zadarius primarily line up on the edge the Packers still need to add some quality depth at the position in my opinion as I don't expect Fackrell to replicate last season's numbers by any means.

I agree with this. I wouldn't necessarily rule out an edge at any pick. Although the only guy who I actually like who could potentially be there at #12 is Montez Sweat. From #30 and on, if the right guy is there, I'm fine with it.

 

[Dantés]

Update: We can pretty safely assume that two quarterbacks, plus Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, and Josh Allen are destined to go top 11. That means that I really only need a 7 player board for the Packers' pick at #12. I actually feel that other players, not on my list, also have a chance to go top 11 (e.g. Jawaan Taylor, Devin White, D.K. Metcalf, Greedy Williams, etc.).

1. E. Oliver, iDL, UH
2. J. Williams, OL, UA
3. A. Dillard, OT, WSU*
4. D. Bush, LB, UM
5. T. Hockenson, TE, IA
6. M. Sweat, ED, MSU
7. C. Wilkins, iDL, CLEM

I took Jawaan Taylor, Josh Allen, and Devin White off of my board completely. I have not been convinced of these players throughout the process, so I am not going to try to make myself like them more based on the group think. There is obviously a chance that I'm wrong about them, and it's all but certain that I'm wrong on at least one of them, but the way I see it I might as well roll with my gut conviction, as this is really just for fun.

I've never really understood the hype for Allen. He is a talented player, no doubt, but I saw very little refinement in his pass rush plan in college. Most of the time, it looked to me like a guy who was more talented than his opponent beating him to a spot. And while I do think his zone drops are impressive for an edge, he's not a strong run defender. Taken together, you have a player who isn't varied in his rush approach and who may be a running down liability. I would pass at #12, let along #3. So all that said, I am more than fine if he goes super high.

Devin White is a super talented athlete, but I worry that he might have a fatal flaw. His lack of plus instincts and propensity for overrunning plays and getting a little bit out of control give me Aaron Curry vibes. Instincts are paramount for off-ball linebackers. Slower players with plus instincts will play faster that guys with better timed speed but who are late to read and react. White was able to overcome in college, but I have my doubts about that in the NFL. I can envision him being a guy who arrives really fast, but a little late. Of course, he could also improve in this area, but I wouldn't bet the 12th pick on that.

Jawaan Taylor's background is scaring me off a little bit. His weight has fluctuated dramatically since high school. The story everyone hears is about his senior year in 2015, but I think it's continued since then. When you watch him at Florida, he is clearly a lot bigger than 312. I would guess he cut a bunch of weight again, but then he never provided workout numbers, either at the combine or his pro day. While is has good feet for the RT position and a lot of natural power/length, he plays with some sloppy technique.

Lastly, I starred Andre Dillard due to concerns that he's a LT only. JanisJubilee passed along that Jim Nagy, Sr. Bowl coordinator feels that Dillard is a LT only. Dillard took snaps at RT in Sr. Bowl practice, so I'm assuming that's where he formed his opinion. If that's true, and we don't know for sure, then Dillard isn't really a fit for the Packers.

If several players not on my board go in the top 11, leaving a good cluster of them (e.g. say Dillard, Bush, Hockenson, Sweat, and Wilkins are all still there at #12), I would be in favor of moving back a few spots into the teens if at all possible.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’ve often thought.. wouldn’t it be something to move back a few spots. Then still get the player we were likely to pick (or expected to pick) all along!
I’m not sure #12 is high enough to get that generational type stand out, so there’s a real opportunity there if 3-4 players we deem equal are left standing.
The only reason I’m advocating trading into the teens is I’d love to see us package the 2nd day pick to move forward from #30 towards low 20’s range.
or #44 towards #29 range overall for a 3rd day 1 selection, or if either area sees a stellar player slide

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I’ve often thought.. wouldn’t it be something to move back a few spots. Then still get the player we were likely to pick (or expected to pick) all along!
I’m not sure #12 is high enough to get that generational type stand out, so there’s a real opportunity there if 3-4 players we deem equal are left standing.

If there are several players presenting equal value for the Packers at the time they're on the clock I would be fine with trading back some spots to gain additional picks in this year's draft. Gutekunst should definitely pull the trigger if there's only one player left in the top tier regardless of other teams offers for the 12th selection.

 

[RepStar15]

1. Quinnen Williams DT
2. Nick Bosa Edge
3. Devin White ILB
4. Ed Oliver DT
5. Jonah Williams OG
6. Jawaan Taylor OT
7. Andre Dillard OT
8. Montez Sweat Edge
9. Josh Allen edge
10. Christian Wilkins DT
11. TJ Hockenson TE
12. AJ Brown WR
13. Hollywood Brown WR
14. Devin Bush ILB
15. Brian Burns Edge
16. Byron Murphy CB
17. DK Metcalf WR
18. DeAndre Baker CB
19. Jeffrey Simmons DT
20. Zach Allen DE
21. Jerry Tillery DT
22. Cody Ford OG
23. Chris Lindstrom OG
24. Irv Smith TE
25. Jamel Dean CB
26. Dexter Lawrence DT
27. Paris Campbell WR
28. Greg Little OT
29. Garrett Bradberry C
30. Dalton Risner OT
- Total pass on Rashan Gary, Noah Fant (unless available in 3rd round), a safety/qb/rb in the first round

 

[elcid]

Updated big board

1. Q. Williams, iDL, UA
2. N. Bosa, ED, OSU
3. E. Oliver, iDL, UH
4. J. Allen, ED, UK
   
5. J. Taylor, OT, FLA
6. D. White, LB, LSU
7. J. Williams, OL, UA
8. D. Bush, LB, UM
9. T. Hockenson, TE, IA
10. C. Ford, OL, UO
11. C. Wilkins, iDL, CLEM
12. R. Gary, DL, UM
13. Montez Sweat (Given his condition I'd only consider him at 30)
14. Brian Burns
15. Byron Murphy
16. AJ Brown
17. Andre Dillard
18. Jeffrey Simmons (all though I'd probably still not consider him at 30)
19. Noah Fant
20. Greedy Williams
21. Marquise Brown
22. Dalton Risner
23. Jerry Tillery
24. Clelin Ferrell
25. Nasir Adderley
26. Chris Lindstrom
27. DK Metcalf
28. Chauncey Gardner Johnson
29. Garrett Bradburry
30. Dexter Lawrence

 

[Pkrjones]

Rashan Gary has a torn labrum that hasn't been surgically corrected, yet. He's almost in the Jeffery Simmons range, now, where you may get a few games from him in '19 but can't count on it. Some are saying he may need to play with a range-limiting harness to get thru the season. I would expect him to slide back into late 1st or 2nd round range with that info.

 

[elcid]

Rashan Gary has a torn labrum that hasn't been surgically corrected, yet. He's almost in the Jeffery Simmons range, now, where you may get a few games from him in '19 but can't count on it. I would expect him to slide back into late 1st or 2nd round range with that info.

Source? Sounds like a great pick up at 30 then, but I doubt he'll make it that far.

Furthermore I don't get why people dislike the fact that he started his own agency. If anything I find it admirable that he has started a business and is planning for a life after football. I'd rather see players do that than play Fortnite when they are off lol

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Rashan Gary has a torn labrum that hasn't been surgically corrected, yet. He's almost in the Jeffery Simmons range, now, where you may get a few games from him in '19 but can't count on it. Some are saying he may need to play with a range-limiting harness to get thru the season. I would expect him to slide back into late 1st or 2nd round range with that info.

I wasn't in favor of the Packers drafting Gary in the first round before and definitely don't want the team to draft him early now.

Source? Sounds like a great pick up at 30 then, but I doubt he'll make it that far.

Furthermore I don't get why people dislike the fact that he started his own agency. If anything I find it admirable that he has started a business and is planning for a life after football. I'd see players rather do that than play Fortnite when they are off lol

Ian Rapoport tweeted the information about an hour ago:

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1120640709642674176

It's great that Gary has a plan for life after football but NFL teams definitely aren't fond of a player running his own agency.

 

[Pkrjones]

Source? Sounds like a great pick up at 30 then, but I doubt he'll make it that far.

Furthermore I don't get why people dislike the fact that he started his own agency. If anything I find it admirable that he has started a business and is planning for a life after football. I'd rather see players do that than play Fortnite when they are off lol

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/23/report-rashan-gary-has-labral-tear-in-shoulder/

 

[elcid]

It's great that Gary has a plan for life after football but NFL teams definitely aren't fond of a player running his own agency.

How so? Surely the FO could get a better contract done than when he would be represented by an agent? Furthermore it signals to me that he is a proactive guy, and not some guy who clocks in and out from work and who non-stop slouches on his sofa whenever he is off.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How so? Surely the FO could get a better contract done than when he would be represented by an agent? Furthermore it signals to me that he is a proactive guy, and not some guy who clocks in and out from work and who non-stop slouches on his sofa whenever he is off.

I guess that most front offices don't have a great relationship with a lot of agents and definitely don't want one of them to play for their team. It would be a different story if he had plans for life after football in a different business.