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Will Defense improve enough?
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 451429" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">We've beaten this to death or nearly so but from some of posts on this thread I think this bears repeating. As I remember it there was only one Packers fan after last season that argued the Packers defense was good or above average. (I searched for the thread he started and couldn't find it, but as I remember it he linked to one site and his conclusions were over-the-top in favor of the Packers' 2011 defense). Other than that single exception, I don't remember another Packers fan suggesting the Packers defense doesn't have to improve. I believe the argument GreenBlood is advancing, which the link he provided backs up, is not that the Packers defense was good, just that it wasn't the worst in the league by any meaningful measure. And <strong>IMO</strong> no matter how often it is used, yards surrendered by itself is not a meaningful overall measure of a defense. If only one measure has to be used, it should be points surrendered because that's how the outcome of games are determined. Also IMO it's meaningful that every website I've seen that crunches stats comes to the same conclusion: The Packers' defense was bad but not the worst. And yes, that's not even a "small comfort"; it's no comfort at all but IMO it happens to be true. </span> <span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">The first thing that came to mind was what Justice Potter Stewart wrote regarding hard-core ***********: He wrote he wouldn't attempt to define it, but "<em>I know it when I see it</em>." I think we'll see it early with better consistent pressure on the QB. </span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Beyond knowing it when we see it, statistically I think (and of course hope) we'll see a reversion to the mean under Capers. His Packers defenses have been 7th, 2nd, and 19th in points surrendered in his three regular seasons. His Ds have forced 30, 25, and 31 INTs, 10, 8, and 7 fumbles. Opponent's QB ratings (OQBR) have been 74.9 (6th in the league), 67.3 (2nd in the league), and 80.5 (9th in the league). (I added the league ranking for OQBR because it's not a stat often quoted). </span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Average all those numbers together and you get: About 9th in points surrendered, 28-29 INTs, about 8 fumbles recovered and a OQBR of about 74. If that happens, points surrendered will obviously be in the top 10, and I'll bet so will total turnovers and OQBR. If the offense stays healthy, that'll be good enough. IOW, the D doesn't have to be the best its been under Capers, it "just" has to be its average with him as DC. </span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 451429, member: 4300"] [FONT=Tahoma]We've beaten this to death or nearly so but from some of posts on this thread I think this bears repeating. As I remember it there was only one Packers fan after last season that argued the Packers defense was good or above average. (I searched for the thread he started and couldn't find it, but as I remember it he linked to one site and his conclusions were over-the-top in favor of the Packers' 2011 defense). Other than that single exception, I don't remember another Packers fan suggesting the Packers defense doesn't have to improve. I believe the argument GreenBlood is advancing, which the link he provided backs up, is not that the Packers defense was good, just that it wasn't the worst in the league by any meaningful measure. And [B]IMO[/B] no matter how often it is used, yards surrendered by itself is not a meaningful overall measure of a defense. If only one measure has to be used, it should be points surrendered because that's how the outcome of games are determined. Also IMO it's meaningful that every website I've seen that crunches stats comes to the same conclusion: The Packers' defense was bad but not the worst. And yes, that's not even a "small comfort"; it's no comfort at all but IMO it happens to be true. [/FONT][FONT=Georgia] [/FONT][FONT=Tahoma]The first thing that came to mind was what Justice Potter Stewart wrote regarding hard-core ***********: He wrote he wouldn't attempt to define it, but "[I]I know it when I see it[/I]." I think we'll see it early with better consistent pressure on the QB. [/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma]Beyond knowing it when we see it, statistically I think (and of course hope) we'll see a reversion to the mean under Capers. His Packers defenses have been 7th, 2nd, and 19th in points surrendered in his three regular seasons. His Ds have forced 30, 25, and 31 INTs, 10, 8, and 7 fumbles. Opponent's QB ratings (OQBR) have been 74.9 (6th in the league), 67.3 (2nd in the league), and 80.5 (9th in the league). (I added the league ranking for OQBR because it's not a stat often quoted). [/FONT] [FONT=Tahoma]Average all those numbers together and you get: About 9th in points surrendered, 28-29 INTs, about 8 fumbles recovered and a OQBR of about 74. If that happens, points surrendered will obviously be in the top 10, and I'll bet so will total turnovers and OQBR. If the offense stays healthy, that'll be good enough. IOW, the D doesn't have to be the best its been under Capers, it "just" has to be its average with him as DC. [/FONT] [/QUOTE]
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