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What are REALISTIC expectations for AR this year?

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by PackinMSP, Apr 5, 2019.

  1. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    Let's assume LaFleur "opens it up" and creates the second coming of the MODERN DAY "Greatest Show on Grass" or is the second coming of Mike Martz, but in today's era...

    I think there's A LOT of pressure on AR to prove it this year

    Should we expect:
    4,500 yards +
    52 touchdowns +
    7 interceptions OR LESS
    70% completions

    Those kinds of numbers???
    For it to be a successful year....

    In Favre's SECOND year with MM, he had an "ok" year for his standards, but he was also 37/38
    4,155 yards
    28 touchdowns
    15 interceptions
    66.5% completions


    Thoughts?
     
  2. Trouble

    Trouble Cheesehead

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    Your dreaming Aaron’s best years product of defense giving him great field position or defense giving up quick Td. Other than few interceptions Aaron has not dominated his peers stats wise. We saw back to back seasons all pro te looking no better than Scrub. Aaron kills the offense letting clock run down. Aaron very good player, but just does to much crap that puts others in scramble mode instead of running a route.
     
  3. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    MVP performance, whatever that may be for this year.
     
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  4. sschind

    sschind Cheesehead

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    I think it is perfectly reasonable to expect an MVP like performance from Rodgers this year. I look for him to be in the top 5 overall. A few may have more yards or more TDs. He should have low INTs. I expect a high QBR and completion percentage.

    4,500 yards +
    52 touchdowns +
    7 interceptions OR LESS
    70% completions


    probably not but 4000 yards, 38-42 TDs fewer than 10 picks, comp percentage in the upper 60s. QBR over 105.
     
  5. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I normally love hypothesisizing stats. But much of this will depend on this years draft capital and if Gute decides to retool the Offense early.
    For instance if we draft a TE, OT/OG, RB and Slot receiver by #112/#118 things will improve much faster on Offense. Yet if we go ILB, Safety, DT, Edge by then, the whole story is different.
    I’ll reserve the stats line to be more realistic with the Offensive draft capital expenditure post draft. Partly I say that because we’re about to possibly get the biggest injection of draft resources in any year since before the SB or possibly in over a decade.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2019
  6. lambeaulambo

    lambeaulambo Cheesehead

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    depends on a number of factors - running game, health, defense, and play sets. the shotgun chuck n duck better not be in the playbook as frequently.
     
  7. sjb12681

    sjb12681 Cheesehead

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    I think Lefluer goes with a LOT of run plays to see what it can do to start.

    He knows what he has in AR. RB is still a question. If run game is successful (which I think it can be with our current crop) I see us looking more like San Diego offense. that would make me think more along 3500/ 32/6 stat line.

    If run game struggles and we have to go vertical, I think lafluer gets sucked into the vortex and AR goes 4100/ 40/15.

    And if the latter, we miss the playoffs again and the coach/qb tug-o-war gets ugly.
     
  8. LambeauLombardi

    LambeauLombardi Cheesehead

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    I still worry his shoulder won't ever be what it used to be from the Barr hit.
     
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  9. Do7

    Do7 Cheesehead

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    We miss the playoffs with Rodgers throwing with those numbers? If we miss the playoffs b/c of that, then we can't pin this on Arodg, as it'll once again be the defense not getting the job done.
     
  10. Do7

    Do7 Cheesehead

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    That is exactly the same thing I'm worried about. I'm more worried that he still sees phantoms. I despise Barr with a passion, and even more sicken to find out his bumass decided to stay in Minnesota than go to The Jets.
     
  11. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Moderator

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    I'd go with his career playoff stats with a better won-loss ratio.
    Career 16 games 9-7-0
    378/595 63.5% for 4458, 262.2 YPG
    36 TDs, 10 Ints, 99.4 QR 39 sacks
    These are actually similar to the 2018 stats. <except for the TD:INT raw numbers>
    16 games 6-9-1
    372/597 62.3% 4442 277.6YPG
    25:2 TD:INT 97.6 QR 49 sacks

    I didn't use QBR as it seems to give more credence to stats in the late game situations when the team is losing. I expect more running late in games this season as the team is protecting a lead.
     
  12. Wi. Mike now in Florida

    Wi. Mike now in Florida Cheesehead

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    Seeing so many changes in Green Bay, personally I say the Packers in a
    rebuilding state and any improvement from the last two years will be a gift.

    I'll also say we will miss the playoff's again with the Bears winning the division.

    god I hope I'm wrong.
     
  13. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I realistically expect that he will not be sending a Christmas card to Tyler Dunne.
     
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  14. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    4000+ yards
    35+ tds
    5 ints


    hopefully D is better. if that happens O should be on the field more times. if the O is more efficient it's on the field longer (keeping the D fresher). rodgers numbers will depend on what's working naturally. my pre-draft thinking is 8-8...due to the brutal schedule and learning curve.
     
  15. Do7

    Do7 Cheesehead

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    If that is the case that to me looks like MVP caliber numbers. Are you certain with that record with those kind of numbers?
     
  16. azrsx05

    azrsx05 Cheesehead

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    My hopes are that he stays healthy for all 16 games ,stops being a diva, takes the open receiver instead of trying to launch the ball every play
     
  17. McKnowledge

    McKnowledge Cheesehead

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    The Packers will make the playoffs again this upcoming season. This will be a year for redemption. That article giving insight into the Packers organization was condemning.

    I'm glad someone took control of the situation (Mark Murphy) and made a clear mandate to Aaron Rodgers.

    Not being the reason of tension should/will be a goal of Rodgers. Realizing his football mortality in the form of legacy, he'll set out to prove everyone wrong. He'll succeed and temper the mob.

    The defense will improve and hopefully the offense will stabilize. I'm a believer in LaFleur. His philosophy and concepts come at the right time. He improved every QB he worked with and was a quality hire.

    I'd expect AR12 or AI-12 to put up 4,700+ yds, 40+ TDs, 3(>) INTs, along with 3(>) rushing TDs. I'd expect GB to have 10-12 wins securing at least a top four seed via a division title.

    Minnesota will continue to regress, Chicago will miss Vic Fangio, and Detroit will remain in last place.
     
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  18. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    I always expect for Aaron Rodgers to be Aaron Rodgers.
     
  19. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    I think the EXPECTATIONS are very obvious. We still have the draft but it's looking more and more like the same old.

    Continue to not give Rodgers the talent he needs around him to win a championship.

    If LaFleur tries to come in here and make this a running team with current personnel he will be a ONE AND DONE cause were not running over anyone.

    With that said I expect more blame to put on Rodgers and possibly talks of trading him because most people have no clue why this thing isnt working.
     
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  20. lambeaulambo

    lambeaulambo Cheesehead

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    and ar should have to play a MINIMUM of 2 pre season halfs....no more whiner 49er
     
  21. thequick12

    thequick12 Cheesehead

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    MVP
     
  22. FL-PACKERfan

    FL-PACKERfan Cheesehead

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    If AR can stay healthy I expect nothing less than MVP caliber season.

    4Kyards
    35TD
     
  23. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    those numbers aren't that far off from last year. fewer yards, more td's, more int's. there are a lot of "if's" in my scenario too. i don't expect everything to line up. pre-draft, as of today, 8-8 seems about right.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  24. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It's unrealistic to expect Rodgers to complete 70% of his passes or throw for 52 touchdowns.

    Actually I don't care about his numbers but am interested in the offense returning to an elite level.

    I highly doubt Gutekunst will use most early draft picks on defense this year.
     
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  25. bigbubbatd

    bigbubbatd Cheesehead

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    I have watched your predictions for this coming year all off-season and you are continually saying this isnt a playoff team and I am trying to figure out why not or at least why you are so adamant. Honestly they looked to have fixed three of their biggest weaknesses on defense through free agency and added a solid o-lineman which was another need. At the same time this is a team that was right there with a lot of good teams last year - Rams, Seahawks, Patriots (packers were driving to take the lead late in the 3rd and then things went off the rails), Vikings, Bears, etc. It wasnt like they were getting blown out outside of the Kizer led last game of the year.

    So we have a team was right there with the best teams in the league. A team that added very important pieces on defense who even if they only turn out to be league average players would be a big improvement on defense. They got rid of a dysfunctional coaching staff. Not sure why you expect them to be pretty much the same team because 8-8 would be essentially the same as they were last year. Last years team with a little luck would have been 10-6 (Cardinals win, Seahawks win, Vikings win, Rams win) and a little less luck 4-11-1 (losses to Jets and 49ers). That is pretty much an 8-8 type team. They look better than that on paper.

    Looking at the division I dont see the two teams in front of having gotten a lot better - the Vikings added middling players and lost a couple pieces to their defense with Richardson and Sendejo. The Bears didnt add much and didnt lose much although Jordan Howard could be a little more of a loss than people realize. He helped Cohen really shine. I think it is really easy to say the Packers improved quite a bit more than those two and have more ammo in the draft to improve more.
     
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