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The Incoming Offseason...Will Be An Emotional Roller Coaster...
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1083564" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>I have to think that if there were any one clear-cut training and/or medical regimen that a team could utilize to minimize non-contact injuries, every team in the league (actually, every team in EVERY sports league, lol) would be writing blank checks to get that sort of training/conditioning program installed for their team(s). Obviously injuries are very frustrating (and all the more so when it is to a key player) but I think there's far too much variance to pinpoint any one particular culprit.</p><p></p><p>In terms of days/games missed (and points-share) I suspect that given a sufficient sample size you would likely find that the healthiest and most-injured teams are likely not all that far apart from each other, honestly.</p><p></p><p>For instance, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/injured/summary/_/year/2025" target="_blank">in terms of value-lost</a> (contract value of injured players over length of injury), the Packers have been one of the "healthiest" teams in the league this year (24th in terms of value-lost). Going back a few years:</p><p></p><p>In 2020 we were 27th</p><p>In 2021 we were 23rd</p><p>In 2022 we were 29th</p><p>In 2023 we were 30th</p><p>And last year we were 32nd.</p><p></p><p>In other words, over the last 5-6 years we have been considerably "healthier" than league average. Basically, if you consider our salary cap allocation, we are having FAR less of that cap tied up in players who are injured and missing time than the rest of the league. Now admittedly 1.) this has not yet been updated for the Parsons injury; and 2.) It doesn't really account for players who are playing "above" their contract (i.e. Kraft counts for a miniscule hit in this sense but we would all agree he is more important than his contract would currently dictate), but it does suggest that in general we either 1.) have not had many key players on large contracts missing much time historically and/or 2.) have generally done at least an adequate job of spreading around our cap allocation so that one injury doesn't have an outsized impact.</p><p></p><p>Similarly, there are a few analytics outfits who have attempted to basically create a "WAR" (wins above replacement) metric for the expected points value of a given player. It's more or less another take on EPA. <a href="https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/12/03/which-nfl-teams-have-been-most-and-least-affected-by-injuries-in-2025/" target="_blank">Take this example.</a> In terms of "total points" lost, we are again one of the healthier teams in the league, coming in 12th in points-lost.</p><p></p><p>Finally, I haven't seen any updated data, but in the past injury data hasn't really shown a terribly strong correlation between player-days missed and overall team success. In terms of total player-opportunity, you have roughly ~750-800 instances in given season (~48 active players, 16-17 game season). Between 2010 and 2020, the "most-injured" teams had only ~2.5% more player-games lost than the “least-injured” teams. The Packers were pretty much right on average. And in terms of overall success the single greatest factor was by far QB play. Teams with elite QB play were able to have success despite suffering more injuries; teams without elite QB play had less success even with healthier rosters around them.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1083564, member: 17987"] I have to think that if there were any one clear-cut training and/or medical regimen that a team could utilize to minimize non-contact injuries, every team in the league (actually, every team in EVERY sports league, lol) would be writing blank checks to get that sort of training/conditioning program installed for their team(s). Obviously injuries are very frustrating (and all the more so when it is to a key player) but I think there's far too much variance to pinpoint any one particular culprit. In terms of days/games missed (and points-share) I suspect that given a sufficient sample size you would likely find that the healthiest and most-injured teams are likely not all that far apart from each other, honestly. For instance, [URL='https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/injured/summary/_/year/2025']in terms of value-lost[/URL] (contract value of injured players over length of injury), the Packers have been one of the "healthiest" teams in the league this year (24th in terms of value-lost). Going back a few years: In 2020 we were 27th In 2021 we were 23rd In 2022 we were 29th In 2023 we were 30th And last year we were 32nd. In other words, over the last 5-6 years we have been considerably "healthier" than league average. Basically, if you consider our salary cap allocation, we are having FAR less of that cap tied up in players who are injured and missing time than the rest of the league. Now admittedly 1.) this has not yet been updated for the Parsons injury; and 2.) It doesn't really account for players who are playing "above" their contract (i.e. Kraft counts for a miniscule hit in this sense but we would all agree he is more important than his contract would currently dictate), but it does suggest that in general we either 1.) have not had many key players on large contracts missing much time historically and/or 2.) have generally done at least an adequate job of spreading around our cap allocation so that one injury doesn't have an outsized impact. Similarly, there are a few analytics outfits who have attempted to basically create a "WAR" (wins above replacement) metric for the expected points value of a given player. It's more or less another take on EPA. [URL='https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/12/03/which-nfl-teams-have-been-most-and-least-affected-by-injuries-in-2025/']Take this example.[/URL] In terms of "total points" lost, we are again one of the healthier teams in the league, coming in 12th in points-lost. Finally, I haven't seen any updated data, but in the past injury data hasn't really shown a terribly strong correlation between player-days missed and overall team success. In terms of total player-opportunity, you have roughly ~750-800 instances in given season (~48 active players, 16-17 game season). Between 2010 and 2020, the "most-injured" teams had only ~2.5% more player-games lost than the “least-injured” teams. The Packers were pretty much right on average. And in terms of overall success the single greatest factor was by far QB play. Teams with elite QB play were able to have success despite suffering more injuries; teams without elite QB play had less success even with healthier rosters around them. [/QUOTE]
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