Receivers

[Dantés]

So as posted in another thread, Thompson seems to have some guidelines when it comes to the receiver position. In the 9 wide outs he's drafted in the top 4 rounds, we see the following patterns emerge:

-7/9 6'0" or taller (Cobb at 5'10" and Jennings at 5'11")
-8/9 4.56 or faster in the forty (Cory Rodgers 4.58)
-8/9 7.08 or faster in the three cone (Cory Rodgers 7.37)
-9/9 4.35 or faster in the short shuttle

The height minimum caught my eye as it seems to emerge as a pattern at multiple positions for TT. So I wanted to compare top 3 round receivers sub-6' and 6'+. Here are the lists.

Sub 6':

1. Odell Beckham
2. Brandin Cooks
3. Jarvis Landry
4. Josh Huff
5. John Brown
6. Tavon Austin
7. Marquise Goodwin
8. Markus Wheaton
9. Stedman Bailey
10. Kendall Wright
11. Ryan Broyles
12. T.J. Graham
13. T.Y. Hilton
14. Titus Young
15. Randall Cobb
16. Vincent Brown
17. Jerrel Jernigan
18. Golden Tate
19. Emmanuel Sanders
20. Jordan Shipley
21. Andre Roberts
22. Armanti Edwards

6'+:

1. Sammy Watkins
2. Mike Evans
3. Kelvin Benjamin
4. Marqise Lee
5. Jordan Matthews
6. Paul Richardson
7. Davante Adams
8. Cody Latimer
9. Allen Robinson
10. Donte Moncrief
11. Deandre Hopkins
12. Corarrelle Patterson
13. Justin Hunter
14. Robert Woods
15. Aaron Dobson
16. Terrance Williams
17. Keenan Allen
18. Justin Blackmon
19. Michael Floyd
20. A.J. Jenkins
21. Brian Quick
22. Stephen Hill
23. Alshon Jeffery
24. Rueben Randle
25. Devier Posey
26. Mohamed Sanu
27. A.J. Green
28. Julio Jones
29. Jon Baldwin
30. Torrey Smith
31. Greg Little
32. Austin Pettis
33. Demaryius Thomas
34. Dez Bryant
35. Arrelious Benn
36. Damian Williams
37. Brandon LaFell
38. Eric Decker
39. Taylor Price

So obviously varying sample sizes, but I don't have the energy to go back to '05 on the shorties. Let's compare the rates.

By my count (feel free to do your own assessment), I see a hit rate of 36% among the sub 6' crowd.

Among the taller players, I see a hit rate of 51%, with some tough calls in there. And, like at corner, the peaks in this crowd are much higher. All of the true "elite" receivers are coming out of that crowd with the exception of OBJ.

So it would seem, at a cursory glance, that the 6' guideline at WR is a wise rule. I also think it bodes well that TT is willing to break it if the right guy falls to him.

So who are some of the 6'+ guys with ~4.55 or faster forty times, ~7.08 or faster 3C's and good short shuttles? Glad you asked:

• Zay Jones, East Carolina
• Chris Godwin, Penn State
• Juju Smith-Schuster, USC
• Chad Hansen, Cal
• Josh Reynolds, Texas AM
• Amara Darboh, Michigan
• Josh Malone, Tennessee
• Jehu Chesson, Michigan
• Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois
• Robert Davis, Georgia State
• Chad Williams, Grambling
• Amba Etta-Tawo, Syracuse
• Rodney Adams, South Florida
• Michael Rector, Stanford
• Quincy Adeboyejo, Ole Miss

Notable receivers who lack some of the key data points (as in, they're missing-- not that they fell short): Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Mack Hollins.

Of that list, I'd be happy to have Jones in the 2nd; Hansen, Reynolds, or Darboh in the 3rd; Malone in the 4th; or Chesson in the 5th.

 

[brandon2348]

Zay Jones is a guy I could see TT drafting. Malone in 4th could be a steal.

The guy not on this list I could see some movement on is Carlos Henderson when you look at the Cobb situation.

 

[Scotland Yard]

The Ohio St. guys are intriguing to me.

Curtis Samuel is 5'11" and super fast. I wonder if TT could get him in the second round (trade up maybe?) and let him play RB similar to Montgomery. Let him work some out of the slot, too. Plus, he'd probably be the Packers' best return man since Desmond Howard right off the bat.

Noah Brown is big, 6'2", 222#, and his numbers are right on the borderline of those you put forth Dantes. Pretty nice size prospect should the Packers lose Adams to FA next year. His productivity is low because of OSU's lackluster QB play last year and a broken leg in 2015, but, given a chance this guy could be the steal of the draft if you can snag him in the 3rd round.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

According to Mike Mayock several teams have completely taken John Ross of their board because of injury concerns.

 

[brandon2348]

According to Mike Mayock several teams have completely taken John Ross of their board because of injury concerns.

Rightfully so. This guy is very very brittle and his body type doesn't appear to one that will hold up. Best case scenario he is another Brandon Cooks but I'm thinking more Paul Richardson.

I really would like them to draft Carlos Henderson.

 

[Dantés]

Makes sense. He's slight, he's had a lot of surgeries, and he's missed a lot of time in college, including the entire 2015 season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Rightfully so. This guy is very very brittle and his body type doesn't appear to one that will hold up. Best case scenario he is another Brandon Cooks but I'm thinking more Paul Richardson.

I really would like them to draft Carlos Henderson.

OK, I'm up to 3 players I've looked at, LOL.

Henderson's got some game, but I don't see him as a slot. I'd be concerned that his possession-receiver-in-space splash plays will not translate in the faster, more physical NFL. I think there are some Jennings comparisons to be made rather than slot characteristics.

 

[brandon2348]

OK, I'm up to 3 players I've looked at, LOL.

Henderson's got some game, but I don't see him as a slot. I'd be concerned that his possession-receiver-in-space splash plays will not translate in the faster, more physical NFL. I think there are some Jennings comparisons to be made rather than slot characteristics.

Henderson could probably play inside or outside.

Marlon Mack "has some game" too .

 

[HardRightEdge]

Henderson could probably play inside or outside.

Marlon Mack "has some game" too .

I'd prefer a more physical back than Mack.

 

[brandon2348]

I'd prefer a more physical back than Mack.

Alot of people want that. I say draft Mixon but if they can't come to grips with it I like Mack. Gonna be a lot of passing this year and Mack could share reps with Monty without missing a beat. Wear the defense down and then Mack goes for the long one. I like Ripper as a physical runner and he is an upgrade from Kuhn in that department.

If you have to have another physical back I would go Brian Hill or Jamaal Williams. Williams is the better pass catcher so he might be the guy. I don't want them to go Foreman or Kamara in second. I like Williams as an option that could be gotten in 4th or 5th but Hill would do.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Alot of people want that. I say draft Mixon but if they can't come to grips with it I like Mack. Gonna be a lot of passing this year and Mack could share reps with Monty without missing a beat. Wear the defense down and then Mack goes for the long one. I like Ripper as a physical runner and he is an upgrade from Kuhn in that department.

If you have to have another physical back I would go Brian Hill or Jamaal Williams. Williams is the better pass catcher so he might be the guy. I don't want them to go Foreman or Kamara in second. I like Williams as an option that could be gotten in 4th or 5th but Hill would do.

Ripkowski just doesn't work in single back. He's best with the quick hitters as the up back in a man block call.

I'm getting crazy now with the tape. Up to about 1/2 dozen players in this draft! I said I wouldn't, but I just can't help it.

I'm not liking Mack much. He runs so high he looks gangly at times despite his height/weight.

You didn't mention Kareem Hunt. I'm guessing you used a 4.5 cutoff for a round 3 or above back.

I like Hunt in the 3rd. I was impressed with his season highlights even before I saw the Senior Bowl tape, which is worth a look. That was a pretty impressive performance behind some often confused blocking:

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He clocked 4.6, so he's not going to run away from NFL DBs. At 5'10, 216 he does not have optimal size. He's got a suspension on his record from junior year. That's why he's a 3rd. - 4th. round guy. In terms of style, he's a Shady McCoy type. Patience, vision, wiggle and some elusiveness at the third level. He has good pad level. Seriously, he does. While not as physical as a Foreman-type, he stays low and can take defenders head on for a tough yard or two.

Good receiver, doesn't fumble (only one in his college career). None of these college guys do much pass blocking, so you just have to wait and see.

He just looks like a professional running back to me.

 

[brandon2348]

Ripkowski just doesn't work in single back. He's best with the quick hitters as the up back in a man block call.

I'm getting crazy now with the tape. Up to about 1/2 dozen players in this draft! I said I wouldn't, but I just can't help it.

I'm not liking Mack much. He runs so high he looks gangly at times despite his height/weight.

You didn't mention Kareem Hunt. I'm guessing you used a 4.5 cutoff for a round 3 or above back.

I like Hunt in the 3rd. I was impressed with his season highlights even before I saw the Senior Bowl tape, which is worth a look. That was a pretty impressive performance behind some often confused blocking:

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He clocked 4.6, so he's not going to run away from NFL DBs. At 5'10, 216 he does not have optimal size. He's got a suspension on his record from junior year. That's why he's a 3rd. - 4th. round guy. In terms of style, he's a Shady McCoy type. Patience, vision, wiggle and some elusiveness at the third level. He has good pad level. Seriously, he does. While not as physical as a Foreman-type, he stays low and can take defenders head on for a tough yard or two.

Good receiver, doesn't fumble (only one in his college career). None of these college guys do much pass blocking, so you just have to wait and see.

He just looks like a professional running back to me.

I like Hunt too. He has a similar running style to Thomas Rawls. With these RB's it really comes down to what style your looking for. There is a plethora of RB talent in this draft.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I like Hunt too. He has a similar running style to Thomas Rawls. With these RB's it really comes down to what style your looking for. There is a plethora of RB talent in this draft.

Rawls is decent comparison. I'd say Hunt has more make-something-out-of-nothing in finding a hole in his jump cuts and spins; Rawls is more explosive going through it.

We have to consider Thompson's habit of not taking RBs on day 1 or 2. In 12 drafts, there's been Lacy, Alex Green (one of his worst 3rd. round picks) and Brandon Jackson. He's drafted only 6 altogether, and none in the last 3 drafts with Lacy on board. I suspect, just suspect, with the plan to play Montgomery at RB again and Michael on board again (a move I do not endorse), they'll look for a complimentary back further down the board.

Frankly, I think they'll be looking for a WR in the top 3 rather than a RB.

 

[brandon2348]

Rawls is decent comparison. I'd say Hunt has more make-something-out-of-nothing in finding a hole in his jump cuts and spins; Rawls is more explosive going through it.

We have to consider Thompson's habit of not taking RBs on day 1 or 2. In 12 drafts, there's been Lacy, Alex Green (one of his worst 3rd. round picks) and Brandon Jackson. He's drafted only 6 altogether, and none in the last 3 drafts with Lacy on board. I suspect, just suspect, with the plan to play Montgomery at RB again and Michael on board again (a move I do not endorse), they'll look for a complimentary back further down the board.

Frankly, I think they'll be looking for a WR in the top 3 rather than a RB.

I completely agree. While I'm intrigued by having Mixon in the Packer offense with some scouts saying he is the best player in the draft I think it's a pipe dream TT will actually pull the trigger on him. That's why I see RB as a later round pick.

My prediction stands that well see either Zay Jones or Carlos Henderson in Green and Gold next year. Both have tons of production and combine numbers to match. Both could technically play all 3 receiver positions in the Packers offense which is something to consider here.