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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 869150"><p>There are other things going on. Why are TEs high on the list despite running more short routes? Why are 100 target receivers scattered across the rankings, pretty equally distributed, and not concentrated at the top of the list? I've got a couple of thoughts.</p><p></p><p>TE's are frequently targetted on underneath routes in zone seams. Zone D on short routes is oriented more toward containment, limiting YAC, rather than defending the pass. That's one theory.</p><p></p><p>As for WRs, it is worth repeating that the separation stats are for targets, not plays where the guy is not thrown the ball. Though not in every case, the fact NFL QBs in general do not high-target guys with the best separation (those players are scattered throughout the rankings) suggests some other factors: trust, or confidence if one prefers.</p><p></p><p>Trust or confidence covers a number of things. Does the receiver run the route in the way the QB expects whereby he can be thrown open in tight coverage? That may be the most important factor. Is the receiver physical and competitive at the ball? Does the receiver have reliable hands to come down with competitive balls? Can the guy be trusted to get YAC when throwing under the first down marker? All things being equal, the physical traits that go into throwing to tight coverage are catch radius (height, arm length, vertical) and strength (however you measure that, though I think you'd find receiver physicality correlates to lifts.)</p><p></p><p>If one were to roll all these factors into a score, receivers with high scores are more likely to get throws in tight coverage.</p><p></p><p>Alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum where things are not always equal, we see Edelman far down the list at 2.8 yards yet with 153 targets. We know why--he's one of a long line of little NE slots who can catch a ball in a phone booth and Brady has high confidence he will. Further, the kinds of routes a receiver is called upon to execute is a factor. Running a lot of short slot routes against man is bound to suppress separation stats.</p><p></p><p>So what does this stat mean? Not much without examining individual cases. I'll say this much. If a WR is not a trusted route runner, he'll see the ball less often and when he does it will most often be after he makes his break with separation. Of course by then, the progression or the pass rush moving off the QB off his spot may result in that receiver being passed by. And you don't want to be staring the guy down waiting to see his break. That's a recipe for INTs, or in Rodgers case, throwaways.</p><p></p><p>Some of the best receivers may well be the ones with high productivity and a low separation number, a high trust factor that works. You'd of course prefer both, like Adams.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 869150"] There are other things going on. Why are TEs high on the list despite running more short routes? Why are 100 target receivers scattered across the rankings, pretty equally distributed, and not concentrated at the top of the list? I've got a couple of thoughts. TE's are frequently targetted on underneath routes in zone seams. Zone D on short routes is oriented more toward containment, limiting YAC, rather than defending the pass. That's one theory. As for WRs, it is worth repeating that the separation stats are for targets, not plays where the guy is not thrown the ball. Though not in every case, the fact NFL QBs in general do not high-target guys with the best separation (those players are scattered throughout the rankings) suggests some other factors: trust, or confidence if one prefers. Trust or confidence covers a number of things. Does the receiver run the route in the way the QB expects whereby he can be thrown open in tight coverage? That may be the most important factor. Is the receiver physical and competitive at the ball? Does the receiver have reliable hands to come down with competitive balls? Can the guy be trusted to get YAC when throwing under the first down marker? All things being equal, the physical traits that go into throwing to tight coverage are catch radius (height, arm length, vertical) and strength (however you measure that, though I think you'd find receiver physicality correlates to lifts.) If one were to roll all these factors into a score, receivers with high scores are more likely to get throws in tight coverage. Alternatively, at the other end of the spectrum where things are not always equal, we see Edelman far down the list at 2.8 yards yet with 153 targets. We know why--he's one of a long line of little NE slots who can catch a ball in a phone booth and Brady has high confidence he will. Further, the kinds of routes a receiver is called upon to execute is a factor. Running a lot of short slot routes against man is bound to suppress separation stats. So what does this stat mean? Not much without examining individual cases. I'll say this much. If a WR is not a trusted route runner, he'll see the ball less often and when he does it will most often be after he makes his break with separation. Of course by then, the progression or the pass rush moving off the QB off his spot may result in that receiver being passed by. And you don't want to be staring the guy down waiting to see his break. That's a recipe for INTs, or in Rodgers case, throwaways. Some of the best receivers may well be the ones with high productivity and a low separation number, a high trust factor that works. You'd of course prefer both, like Adams. [/QUOTE]
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