The Flynn franchise tag talk is ridiculous. Even if it wasn't a huge risk, think about who the GM is for this team. He's not a gambler or a spender. TT won't take risks, he'll take a good deal over a great deal with high risks any day.
Secondly, TT was ready to let Finley walk, that's why he drafted THREE tight ends in the past two seasons, plus signed Crabtree as an UFA, making it four TEs brought on in the past two seasons. Why did he do this? To have a viable TE once Finley left. However, all of that changed when Quarless was lost for not just the 2011 season but a good portion of 2012. Now the Packers are left with a trio of TEs (Taylor, Williams, and Crabtree) who totaled a combined 9 receptions in 2011 for whopping 55 yards. Will TT let Rodgers go into the 2012 season without a legitimate TE? Maybe.
TT could sign Finley to a long-term deal if he doesn't see the growth in any of his current tight ends. Finley is still an elite receiver who had a non-elite contract season (that could work in our favor). If he doesn't see Finley as the answer and/or believes that his crop of tight ends will develop, TT would either slap the franchise tag on Finley to bridge the gap until Quarless comes back in 2013 or just let Finley walk.
My guess is that TT won't use the tag on anyone, as it doesn't fit his style. Finley will walk, everyone will complain, in 2012 or 2013 one of those tight ends will have a break-out season, and we will all forget about Jer-whats-his-name Finley.