NFC North Predictions

[Heyjoe4]

The only scenario I don't see Wicks on the 53 is if he gets injured or traded. Wicks is at worst our #4 and probably #3 at least starting week 1 ( fighting with Golden) Reed and Doubs are #1 & 2 out of camp)

With the scenario you pointed out, that leaves Reed, Doubs, Golden, Williams and Heath on the 53. Who is your 6th WR? As for Melton, he is the most expendable WR with Golden & Williams added to the roster (Golden for the speed he offers, and Williams for the Jet Sweep plays) Melton had 9 total catches last year, and his 2023 numbers were inflated by 1 game where he had over 100 yards receiving. Hardman at least offers Special Teams return ability and is fighting Heath for the #6 spot, Melton as of now is my #8.

Watson doesn't count in any of this, as he will be on IR to start the season. When he returns, someone on the WR roster will get traded, released, or put on the practice squad.

Good point about Wicks. It's more likely that Melton, Heath, and Hardman don't make the 53.

That still leaves the problem of only having 5 WRs - assuming no changes in personnel and Watson unavailable until late October. To fill that gap I'd keep Melton. Yeah he only had the one good season, but that's more than Heath can say, and Hardman is a PS guy. Nixon wants to return KOs again, and I don't think they keep Hardman just to handle PRs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Wow. I actually believe Melton has the least chance of those 3. Will definitely be interesting.

It's hard to get excited about any of these three players. Melton did have the one good season. DoUrant pointed out that my scenario only leaves 5 WRs for the 53. I think Wicks stays and Heath gets the boot.

We've seen too little of any of these guys to make informed predictions now. But with the addition of Golden and Williams, maybe these bubble candidates will work a bit harder in TC and the PS. It's always possible a WR Gluten and MLF like becomes available in cur downs.

Anyway to update my pretty bad initial list - I think Heath and Hardman get the boot. Again, this is a way-too-early call. A lot will change between now and the finalization of the 53.

 

[OldSchool101]

So similar to several other position battles, WR will likely come down to battles in Camp and Preseason. Their is a legitimate case for WR6/WR7 (because if there has ever been solid reasoning to hold 7 WR’s this is one year).

Some stats are From “Packers Wire”

Punt/Kick Returner
Reed ranked 33rd out of 42 qualified punt returners at PFF in 2023, and 42nd out of 43 in 2024, with an average grade of 49.8. While I like Reed, he is not the answer here.

Hardman ranked an average of 13th in the four seasons he qualified with the minimum tried. His average grade? 68.3%

After an All-Pro season as a kick returner in 2022, Keisean Nixon's production has dipped massively. He has an average PFF grade of just 60.3 as a returner in the last two seasons.

-Nixon intimated during his most recent session with the media that he did not want to return kicks anymore, and instead wanted to focus on being a cornerback, a role in which he has become more important to Green Bay.

*Hardman becomes a logical answer with an above serviceable 62.2% PFF career grade at Returner. Along with proven Big Play ability.

Slot
Reed is our obvious choice in the Slot and Hardman and Reed overlap many of the same traits. However what many forget is that Reed also lined up at the Perimeter for 2 seasons at Michigan State, so he has versatility at either position. So it is Reed, not Hardman that would open up possibilities of Hardman playing in the Slot if MLF wants to utilize him some in his Offense. How did Hardman fare in the Slot?
Hardman has by far the best track record against man coverage among Green Bay's group of wideouts. His 72.33 career PFF grade versus man is markedly better than Romeo Doubs' 65.2, Dontayvion Wicks' 63.9 and Jayden Reed's 57.7. His 1.97 yards per route run (Y/RR) also easily clears Wicks at 1.39, Reed at 1.34 and Doubs at 1.05.

These are not to diminish our other Wideouts. Rather it shows that when Hardman makes a Roster he performs. He’s not a project player and his scope is not limited to 1 dimension. The guy scored 3 TD’s in one game against the SF49ers. He’s far more dynamic and far more versatile than anyone on the bottom of our Roster imo.

X Factor
“It brought me to tears seeing that he was the man that got us this ring,” Kelce said. “Sometimes the media world can be pretty harsh on a guy. … Mecole is one of my favorite teammates ever because he just keeps showing up and he keeps trying to find ways to win. Had a huge play for us early on that kind of sparked us and on top of that, finds a way to win the game for us when everybody counted him out — even the Jets counted him out.

“And man, we were so excited when he got back in the building because he’s the kind of guy who brings everybody together. He’s got that kind of personality.”

Teams are judged from the Bottom up.
Would I rather have Hardman, Melton, Heath or some Green Pea with the game on the line. For myself it’s not even a question. Give me the Bulldog thats been counted out and counted on. Desmond Howard PT2

 

[OldSchool101]

Not sure where one would find such information, but I'm guessing Rodgers was further along down the ADOT line when he was in his prime.

Couldn’t find that but did notice Rodgers last 2 seasons 2022,2024 had a spike in drops. 40 average per season which is high.

Also comparing to Pat Mahomes 16.8% bad throw % career, Jordan’s 18.3% is about right. Considering his average depth to target is a full 2 yards more, it’s likely he’s throwing more deep balls. We’d expect him to be higher in bad throw % if he’d throwing longer, but actually he’s pretty normal range.

 

[gopkrs]

Assuming no big health issue changes or such…

Packers and Lions both go 12-5 (toss up who takes division)
Vikings 9-8
Bears 8-9

OK. I'll take a stab at it.
lions 13-4
Pack 12-5
vikes 9-8
bears 7-10
It's such a tough schedule

 

[Heyjoe4]

OK. I'll take a stab at it.
lions 13-4
Pack 12-5
vikes 9-8
bears 7-10
It's such a tough schedule

I would be overjoyed with a 12-5 record, given the tough schedule. If the team returns to the form it showed in the last half od the 2023 season, and the impressive playoff play against the Cowboys and Niners, then 12 wins is certainly possible.

There are a lot of important factors behind a big year. For the Packers, I think it comes down to 1) improved, consistent play from the passing offense and 2) a solid improvement in pressures and sacks from last year.

If they can execute those two things consistently and, of course, avoid massive injuries, then 12 regular-season wins are possible. And the schedule gets them playoff-ready.

 

[gopkrs]

I would be overjoyed with a 12-5 record, given the tough schedule. If the team returns to the form it showed in the last half od the 2023 season, and the impressive playoff play against the Cowboys and Niners, then 12 wins is certainly possible.

There are a lot of important factors behind a big year. For the Packers, I think it comes down to 1) improved, consistent play from the passing offense and 2) a solid improvement in pressures and sacks from last year.

If they can execute those two things consistently and, of course, avoid massive injuries, then 12 regular-season wins are possible. And the schedule gets them playoff-ready.

I would add very good O line play. I think our running game has to go. Not to the expense of the passing game, but to open it up. Hopefully we have a good mix and the play calls are timely.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I would add very good O line play. I think our running game has to go. Not to the expense of the passing game, but to open it up. Hopefully we have a good mix and the play calls are timely.

The Packers are kinda loaded at RB. If they could use guys other than Jacobs from time to time, well it would save more wear and tear on Jacobs.

But yeah, The O line needs to be solid. I liked the offseason moves to the OL.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers are kinda loaded at RB. If they could use guys other than Jacobs from time to time, well it would save more wear and tear on Jacobs.

But yeah, The O line needs to be solid. I liked the offseason moves to the OL.

I did also. We seemed to lean more Run Centric, but I don’t think we will lose much if any in Pass protection.

 

[OldSchool101]

Imo GB will be better at
QB
WR
RB
TE
OL (at least in the Run Block)

On Defense I think we’ll improve at
DE, LB and possibly Safety (or at minimum break even)

CB and IDL are my only 2 Question Marks. There are rumblings The Packers could be shopping for 1 more addition. Either way I just don’t see anything past a slight drop off in either position. J’aires impact was wonderful but also minimal as he only really played in 7 contests out of 18 total. Then Stokes was reliable, but talk about underwhelming.

 

[OldSchool101]

If Jordan stays healthy I could see a bounce back year. We have to remember he missed nearly 3 contests. I know people think injury is an excuse but when players are not 100%? it absolutely affects their performance.
Imo it took Love around until around game 7 to feel more normal. The following week he pulled his groin and I was surprise he played the following week. He crawled off the field at one point, literally. A groin like that doesn’t disappear in 1 week. It’s at minimum going to hold a QB back some for a couple of weeks. We’re talking him missing almost 3 games and another half dozen games he’s not 100%. Still at 95% he’s our best option imo. Had Jordan just been healthy those 3 missed contests he’s
4000+ yards 30TD 13 INT

That’s playing gimpy.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

If Jordan stays healthy I could see a bounce back year. We have to remember he missed nearly 3 contests. I know people think injury is an excuse but when players are not 100%? it absolutely affects their performance.
Imo it took Love around until around game 7 to feel more normal. The following week he pulled his groin and I was surprise he played the following week. He crawled off the field at one point, literally. A groin like that doesn’t disappear in 1 week. It’s at minimum going to hold a QB back some for a couple of weeks. We’re talking him missing almost 3 games and another half dozen games he’s not 100%. Still at 95% he’s our best option imo. Had Jordan just been healthy those 3 missed contests he’s
4000+ yards 30TD 13 INT

That’s playing gimpy.

I'm looking forward to him hopefully having his best season yet. He certainly has no shortage of weapons to choose from, it's his third year as a starter under the LeFleur system, and the o-line is at least respectable.

All systems go, ready for launch.

 

[Thirteen Below]

OK. I'll take a stab at it.
lions 13-4
Pack 12-5
vikes 9-8
bears 7-10
It's such a tough schedule

I'm never one to make actual predictions, because there are just sooo many variable factors that can either happen or not happen. But I do some general expectations.

Your predictions look pretty close to what I expect. Only difference is, I think Detroit and Green Bay are a toss-up.

Losing both coordinators and 6 assistant coaches is going to hurt the Lions, especially early in the season as they work through the growing pains with the new coaches. No team has ever lost 8 members of their coaching staff before, and it's certain to have an impact.

I think Green Bay will improve significantly over last year, and Detroit will slip back a bit. I expect the Packers to be even with and maybe a wee bit better than the Lions; each team is probably going to be somewhere between 10-6 and 12-4 with 13-3 a realistic but outside possibility for either of them. There's an excellent chance the division crown will come down to Week 18, when we travel to Minneapolis and they play in Chicago.

I see the Vikings finishing 3rd, but could be 8-9 just as easily as 9-8. The wild card there is McCarthy - there's no way to even guess how good he'll be in his first year as a starter, but considering Minnesota's schedule is roughly the 5th toughest in the league, he's going to have a very challenging first year.

I, too, see the Bears ceiling as probably 7-10. There's just been too much instability and lack of leadership for too many years; Ben Johnson is the right man for the job, but even he's going to need more than a year to stop the slide and turn it around. Ryan Poles has done a very poor job of managing the club, and Johnson has his work cut out for him.

So I would guess Green Bay and Detroit neck and neck at the top, roughly 12 wins apiece. The division crown may come down to Week 18, when Detroit plays in Chicago and Green Bay goes to Minneapolis. I think it takes at least 11, maybe 12 games to finish first.

Minnesota probably takes 3rd, 8 or 9 wins. Chicago had one of the weakest schedules in the NFL last year, and only won 5 games. This year, they have roughly the 2nd or 3rd hardest schedule; I don't think it's likely they'll improve much.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm looking forward to him hopefully having his best season yet. He certainly has no shortage of weapons to choose from, it's his third year as a starter under the LeFleur system, and the o-line is at least respectable.

All systems go, ready for launch.

I also think we have a good deal of room for improvement in the Run game. Jacobs at 4.4 per carry is a little low. Now as his workload increases naturally a RB’s per carry will level off some. However if we had a Top 10 Run Blocking OL, I think Jacobs Rushes 250-275 times for 4.8–5.3 yards per carry and slightly tops his 2024 yards but with 25-50 less carries.

No one can tell me that Saquon Barkley just went from around 4.0 per carry in his last 700 carries (pre-Eagles) to 5.8 per carry because of himself. Sure RB’s fluctuate but not by near 2 yards per carry. Blocking is crucial to a RB’s success. I think Jacobs is capable of 5+ per carry IF he has help. As in a Top 10 Run Blocking OL. It doesn’t need to be #1 but it sure can’t be #22 or whatever we were. That’s why I say Elgton Jenkins better be careful because the Packers just might scrape their $13mil Cap savings now and stick Morgan at RG and slide Sean Rhyan to Center. We’d have our backup Tackle with Belton or Morgan and our Backup C/Guard with Monk. Plus we’d have $13mil more reasons to go add another Veteran at either DT or CB or just lock down both Quay and Tom now. Let’s reward the players who want to be here and possibly add 1 more veteran upgrade at a needed position.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I did also. We seemed to lean more Run Centric, but I don’t think we will lose much if any in Pass protection.

Good points. With the emergence of LB Cooper and the addition of LB Simmons, Walker can now focus on the run and dropping into coverage as needed - his two biggest strengths. That is to say, Walker doesn't have to worry about pass rush.

MLF seems to like a solid ground game and an advantage in TOP. He has the ability to pull that off with a solid group of RBs and a better, deeper OL.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I also think we have a good deal of room for improvement in the Run game. Jacobs at 4.4 per carry is a little low. Now as his workload increases naturally a RB’s per carry will level off some. However if we had a Top 10 Run Blocking OL, I think Jacobs Rushes 250-275 times for 4.8–5.3 yards per carry and slightly tops his 2024 yards but with 25-50 less carries.

No one can tell me that Saquon Barkley just went from around 4.0 per carry in his last 700 carries (pre-Eagles) to 5.8 per carry because of himself. Sure RB’s fluctuate but not by near 2 yards per carry. Blocking is crucial to a RB’s success. I think Jacobs is capable of 5+ per carry IF he has help. As in a Top 10 Run Blocking OL. It doesn’t need to be #1 but it sure can’t be #22 or whatever we were. That’s why I say Elgton Jenkins better be careful because the Packers just might scrape their $13mil Cap savings now and stick Morgan at RG and slide Sean Rhyan to Center. We’d have our backup Tackle with Belton or Morgan and our Backup C/Guard with Monk. Plus we’d have $13mil more reasons to go add another Veteran at either DT or CB or just lock down both Quay and Tom now. Let’s reward the players who want to be here and possibly add 1 more veteran upgrade at a needed position.

Barkley went to a much better organization, as did his former Giants's teammate McKinney. So the system matters. The "system" is hard to define but, at a minimum, includes communication, individual responsibility, and accountability.

I was a little surprised that Jacobs's average yards per carry was 4.4. I would have guessed closer to 5. I hope MLF gets some of the guys behind Jacobs more involved in the run game. Jacobs pounds the ball and takes a lot of punishment, even for a RB. I really hope Lloyd emerges as a legitimate #2. Wilson and Brooks are certainly capable of more work as well.

Considering all of the offseason moves, I expect a much better offense this year (and last year was good). To paraphrase Reggie Jackson, Love is the stick that stirs the drink. He's got his contract and experience - time to put it all together.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm never one to make actual predictions, because there are just sooo many variable factors that can either happen or not happen. But I do some general expectations.

Your predictions look pretty close to what I expect. Only difference is, I think Detroit and Green Bay are a toss-up.

Losing both coordinators and 6 assistant coaches is going to hurt the Lions, especially early in the season as they work through the growing pains with the new coaches. No team has ever lost 8 members of their coaching staff before, and it's certain to have an impact.

I think Green Bay will improve significantly over last year, and Detroit will slip back a bit. I expect the Packers to be even with and maybe a wee bit better than the Lions; each team is probably going to be somewhere between 10-6 and 12-4 with 13-3 a realistic but outside possibility for either of them. There's an excellent chance the division crown will come down to Week 18, when we travel to Minneapolis and they play in Chicago.

I see the Vikings finishing 3rd, but could be 8-9 just as easily as 9-8. The wild card there is McCarthy - there's no way to even guess how good he'll be in his first year as a starter, but considering Minnesota's schedule is roughly the 5th toughest in the league, he's going to have a very challenging first year.

I, too, see the Bears ceiling as probably 7-10. There's just been too much instability and lack of leadership for too many years; Ben Johnson is the right man for the job, but even he's going to need more than a year to stop the slide and turn it around. Ryan Poles has done a very poor job of managing the club, and Johnson has his work cut out for him.

So I would guess Green Bay and Detroit neck and neck at the top, roughly 12 wins apiece. The division crown may come down to Week 18, when Detroit plays in Chicago and Green Bay goes to Minneapolis. I think it takes at least 11, maybe 12 games to finish first.

Minnesota probably takes 3rd, 8 or 9 wins. Chicago had one of the weakest schedules in the NFL last year, and only won 5 games. This year, they have roughly the 2nd or 3rd hardest schedule; I don't think it's likely they'll improve much.

I'm not crazy about these early predictions either - but we need something to comment on......

I think the Packers will finish 11-6, same as last year with a much tougher schedule. That probably won't be enough to get past the Lions for kings of the North. The Lions do have their challenges, as you aptly note. I like Dan Campbell and believe he can coach his team through all the change. Lions will finish 12-5 and nose out the Packers for the North crown.

As for the Queens and Bearz - who knows? I like the Bearz to finish ahead of the Queens at 10-7. Johnson has been very active in OTAs and the Bearz made some v good offseason moves. Williams talks too much and GB will make him pay for that. I just don't think McCarthy has what it takes for a solid freshman year, so the Queens finish last at 8-9, maybe even 9-8.

 

[El Guapo]

1/2 Lions or Packers
3 Bears
4 Vikings

I just don't see McCarthy making big strides, but does have a great coach and even greater WR corps on his side along with Aaron Jones at RB. They could be the #2 or #3 team in the NFC North with 10 wins.

 

[gopkrs]

Good points. With the emergence of LB Cooper and the addition of LB Simmons, Walker can now focus on the run and dropping into coverage as needed - his two biggest strengths. That is to say, Walker doesn't have to worry about pass rush.

MLF seems to like a solid ground game and an advantage in TOP. He has the ability to pull that off with a solid group of RBs and a better, deeper OL.

Q just might be a more effective blitzer as he probably won't do it as much. He isn't a slouch in that dept. But it would be good if he becomes a better pass defender and follows Cooper's lead as far as coming up and pounding the ball carrier.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The value attribution trap that fans fall into with first-round busts is always fascinating. If Quay had been drafted in the third round, nobody would expect him to be anything more than what he's shown during his entire career: a bad starting linebacker.

I think the Packers come in second in the North but I don't think they have the elite players to pass the Lions, yet. I mean, look at the personnel on the team and tell me which players you think the other team alters their offense/defense schemes to account for. On defense, I think Xavier McKinney and Edgerinn Cooper are the only guys on defense that other offenses need to account for actively. The Packers offense is full of good players but I don't think there's anyone that defensive coordinators have to alter defensive schemes to account for. Until Gute can actually draft some truly elite players I just don't think the team has the players to overcome the best teams in the league. Hopefully this changes with Golden breaking out like Jefferson did or Kraft earning more targets and showing the league that he's the new Kittle but as of now I think the Packers offense has one of the best 5-7 play callers in the league and numerous good players; which makes for an elite offense that doesn't have anyone to force elite defenses to adjust.

 

[tynimiller]

The value attribution trap that fans fall into with first-round busts is always fascinating. If Quay had been drafted in the third round, nobody would expect him to be anything more than what he's shown during his entire career: a bad starting linebacker.

Hang on just to be a touch to the contrary (don't entirely disagree)....everyone knows I am by no means a Quay fan and have argued from the jump not to take 5th year option or talk extension.....BUT he closed out last year playing phenomenal and last season we saw him cut down on one of his biggest issues (flags and even more so dumb flags).

He's coverage skills are still oddly unsatisfactory for a guy so athletic, but his tackling, pass rush skills and ability to diagnose was elevated last year. What I'm hoping is Quay continues to build and still be a starting level off ball backer proven and will sign decent contract in the off season, but that Cooper proves he's the main replacement and than if Hopper and/or Simmons illustrate growth and goodness behind Cooper and Quay this year + bonus consistency from McDuffie we can easily walk from Quay more so due to positional depth than due to caliber of LB he is...

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Hang on just to be a touch to the contrary (don't entirely disagree)....everyone knows I am by no means a Quay fan and have argued from the jump not to take 5th year option or talk extension.....BUT he closed out last year playing phenomenal and last season we saw him cut down on one of his biggest issues (flags and even more so dumb flags).

He's coverage skills are still oddly unsatisfactory for a guy so athletic, but his tackling, pass rush skills and ability to diagnose was elevated last year. What I'm hoping is Quay continues to build and still be a starting level off ball backer proven and will sign decent contract in the off season, but that Cooper proves he's the main replacement and than if Hopper and/or Simmons illustrate growth and goodness behind Cooper and Quay this year + bonus consistency from McDuffie we can easily walk from Quay more so due to positional depth than due to caliber of LB he is...

I hope you're right! I just tend to believe that 38 games of seeing him on the field is a better indication of who he is as a player versus the last six games he played last season. Again though, I hope you're right and something clicked.

 

[Pkrjones]

I hope you're right! I just tend to believe that 38 games of seeing him on the field is a better indication of who he is as a player versus the last six games he played last season. Again though, I hope you're right and something clicked.

The team, as a whole, got better as the season wore on. Many of the WR drops were in the 1st half season. The D was adapting to Hafley's system & played much, much better in the last 7 games (+ playoff). I think the last 6 games were MORE of what to expect from Quay vs. the first 38 ( or however many he played).

 

[OldSchool101]

The team, as a whole, got better as the season wore on. Many of the WR drops were in the 1st half season. The D was adapting to Hafley's system & played much, much better in the last 7 games (+ playoff). I think the last 6 games were MORE of what to expect from Quay vs. the first 38 ( or however many he played).

Yes and that’s exactly what we’d want to see. Both the Offense and Defense seemed to improve as the season wore on.

Quite frankly I’m amazed how good of a job Jeff Hafley has done. I really think his strong suit is that Secondary. Having a Senior DL Coach added to the Staff who’s equipped and trained under a successful system at New England should provide formidable imo.

Most of us already knew we had the D personnel, but we just couldn’t put it all together. We’ve had 1 season since our SB where we cracked a Top 10 Defense. Even that was barely..at #9 overall. Just Terrible across a 14 season scope of mediocrity. 1 season of good (Pettine) and 1 of semi-good (Capers 2014 #13) where we moved CM3 post Bye and got Perry and Peppers simultaneously. Unfortunately Brandon Bostick was just waiting in the Shadows to display who’s Boss.. Not!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Q just might be a more effective blitzer as he probably won't do it as much. He isn't a slouch in that dept. But it would be good if he becomes a better pass defender and follows Cooper's lead as far as coming up and pounding the ball carrier.

Agreed. Q will be able to concentrate on what he does best. He is fast and could certainly be part of any blitz schemes Hafley draws up. With Simmons being allowed, finally, to focus on LB, the Packers have a solid group of players at the position.