My Three "Doubs" Prospects This Draft Cycle...

tynimiller

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So I'll toot my Doubs horn as long as it appears he is the steal many feel he is...with that who are three guys I feel are my circled guys that could be the Day 3 "Doubs" like steals?

Pick #1
Let's kick this off with A.T. Perry from Wake Forest. I have avoided Perry after being burned by a WF prospect in recent years who was anything but what I thought he was. However, with some Shrine bowl tapes coming in Perry caught my eye and I began to unpack some of his film. He truly plays like he is a power forward on a basketball court catching full court passes - his body control is immaculate, his wingspan is enormous and you get in the red zone this young man can be a weapon in his ability to go up literally outside the reach of likely ANY person in coverage. So why might he be there in Day 3....well three reasons IMO (two of which are very similar to Doubs)...lower level play success (can it translate), his release package isn't refined and he does have some drops to his name. Either way folks a 6'5' WR that has already in the past ran sub 4.5 don't grow on any tree which exists....a prototypical X receiver would free up Watson to be our moving chess piece more than a slot type guy would (argument for that for sure as we don't have a pure slot)...but if when Day 3 kicks off and Perry is still out there - look for Perry's name to be called.

Perry last two years stats: 2389 yards / 152 receptions / 26 TDs / 15.7 YPC
Notable 2022 performances... 10 reception / 119 yards / 3 TDs against solid defensive backfield of Syracuse...also put up 91 yards on 8 receptions and a TD against FSU.

Pick #2
Another prospect I'll share is one which is even more borderline Day 2 than Perry....he has one issue holding him back - where he played and who he played against. Andrei Iosivas picked up and moved even to North Dakota State like Christian Watson would be a second round prospect right now without hesitation...BUT because he is from Princeton everyone wants to know just what he might be. Let me put this way, this ELITE track star (he runs the 60m in 6.7 seconds folks...tracked one play at 22.2mph this year too) if his speed translates should run faster than Watson, may very well be stronger than Watson (benches 370lbs) and doesn't have the drop issues Watson had in college. Now I'm not saying we could have a Watson 2.0, but I'm telling you this dude has uncoachable traits you cannot begin to capture properly. He got an invite to the Senior Bowl and I fear if he shows out it is going to take a team's 3rd rounder or better to get him if he shows out....Watson's success in the NFL showcases how an OOBER athletic prospect from a small school can for sure deliver. Iosivas would give us a clone WR type to Watson....imagine lining up those two with Doubs or a brought in veteran....talk about some fun play design options. His and Watson numbers beside compared:

Item: Watson / Iosivas
Height: 6041 / 6040
Weight: 208 / 205
Vertical: 38.5 / 39
Forty: 4.36 / 4.29

Last two seasons: 1646 yards / 107 receptions / 12 TDs / 15.4 YPC
Most notable games...gonna be honest ZERO clue on Ivy League schools...he did put up 155 yards on 10 catches and 2 TDs against Cornell (if that means anything).

Pick #3
I thought about digging real deep but we will stay with higher Day 3 prospects for this discussion and end the post with Trey Palmer from Nebraska by way of LSU. He was a special team weapon at LSU but caught in a log jam of talented WRs and bet on himself before the 2022 season and transferred to Nebraska...an ODD move to a less than stellar program and many figured he was headed towards obscurity after this last season. BUT this speed demon walked into Nebraska and thrived. Putting up a record setting 1,043 yards on the season and declaring for the draft. I mentioned his speed... he ran the 100m dash in high school in freaking 10.42s. Look for him to run fast, but what I love most about him is his nastiness and edge to him - he embraces physical play and I expect if he blocks like he handles press corners this kid will have some highlight blocks (and some flags potentially LOL). The bonus with Palmer is this dude is a pure and experienced returner - so even if his raw skills and nature at WR don't blossom out the gate he could hold a 53 spot on ST and as a returner.

He's 6'1' 190lbs.

This last year at Nebraska: 1,043 yards / 71 receptions / 9 TDs / 14.69 YPC
Most notable game: Iowa on 11/25 - cat produced 165 yards on 9 receptions and scored twice.
 
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tynimiller

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I'm going to amend and update this list as I truly feel Andrei is heading towards being a Day 2 lock while the other two still are in that Day2/Day3 borderline area.

With that I'll add a fourth option or three replacing Andrei.

I'm mixed on him and just how early I'd take him but there is a lot to like about what Zakhari Franklin from UTSA might offer an offense. He is a slighter build WR prospect (think Will Fuller or Devonte Smith type build) which could be a concern, however while slender it seems his frame is solid and core strength is there. 6'1' 185lbs as listed he offers an X receiver type guy that his production and fearless mentality being the center of an offensive attack gives him an outside chance at growing into a true WR2 as his ceiling and not having that thought be crazy.

At UTSA he put forth excellent production out the gate from first year to last:
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Look for Zakhari like many of the smaller school prospects to use the Senior Bowl as the "bet on yourself" gamble against higher level competition. He doesn't need to win every snap, but if he can put up some solid tape and snaps against good DBs there this young man could confirm the rumored 4th round grade or so that some see in him.
 

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For a lack of a better place to put this, I will put it in the "Doubs Thread".

While I have liked Doubs for the first season and a half, there has always been something that bothered me about him, but I couldn't put my finger on it. This article nailed it pretty well. Basically, all his TD catches have covered up his otherwise not so great play at WR.

"The most disturbing stat for Doubs may very well be his success rate, which tracks how efficient a player is in contributing a positive gain towards picking up a first down or a touchdown. Despite having six scores, all of which are successful plays by definition, Doubs is the second-worst receiver in football in success percentage at 42.4%, besting only Elijah Moore, who is almost certainly the single worst receiver in the league."


 

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Anthony Carter, or was it Chris Carter? I will take a guy who only catches touchdowns as long as he is the #3 receiver. Speaking of Carter's I would love to see the Pack bring in Michael Carter for a look.
 

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Anthony Carter, or was it Chris Carter? I will take a guy who only catches touchdowns as long as he is the #3 receiver. Speaking of Carter's I would love to see the Pack bring in Michael Carter for a look.
I agree. Packers are probably going to need a #2 next season and now is the time to possibly find him in Carter. Was kind of a surprise release, he has played pretty good, when they played him.

Obviously, if there are off the field red flags, do your due diligence Gute.
 
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Romeo is more of that possession receiver and Watson is our deep threat replacement for MVS. Reed is our successor to Cobb.

In real time we have at best a
WR2 Reed
WR3+ Doubs
WR3+ Deep threat- Watson
WR4 Wicks
WR5 Samorie

Unfortunately the majority of opponents have a
CB1 on our WR2
CB2 on our WR3
At best we sometimes get a favorable WR3 or WR4 matchup.

That makes for very difficult matchups and imo it’s partly why so many passes are contested. We need a true WR1 like Rodgers had coming in with Jennings. This would push our order of WR to Corner matchups up 1 tier and free up players Mismatches in our favor instead of our opponents’ advantage.

Everyone in here I think understands the level of competition from a macro level (college to Pro transition) and makes allowances for that part. Although we sometimes forget about that micro level or intra-game, week to week inferior matchups.
 
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Romeo is more of that possession receiver and Watson is our deep threat replacement for MVS. Reed is our successor to Cobb.

In real time we have at best a
WR2 Reed
WR3+ Doubs
WR3+ Deep threat- Watson
WR4 Wicks
WR5 Samorie

Unfortunately the majority of opponents have a
CB1 on our WR2
CB2 on our WR3
At best we sometimes get a favorable WR3 or WR4 matchup.

That makes for very difficult matchups and imo it’s partly why so many passes are contested. We need a true WR1 like Rodgers had coming in with Jennings. This would push our order of WR to Corner matchups up 1 tier and free up players Mismatches in our favor instead of our opponents’ advantage.

Everyone in here I think understands the level of competition from a macro level (college to Pro transition) and makes allowances for that part. Although we sometimes forget about that micro level or intra-game, week to week inferior matchups.
Helloooooo....Marvin Harrison Jr. for 2024!
 
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Helloooooo....Marvin Harrison Jr. for 2024!
The more and more I think about it? It’s not that far fetched. I don’t know how Gutey feels about that, but it would make our Offense exponentially better. There will still be some really good OT options early to mid Round 2.

Malachi is my guy if he’s there in Rd2. He’s very Deebo ish
 
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I like his intangibles. Should be practically risk free.
He's definitely plug and play and will probably go in the top 3 picks. Only 2 things stopping a FHOF career for this guy, injuries or off the field stuff. I just can't believe he would have issues off the field though, he's one motivated guy at his craft. Definitely one of my favorite WR's in a draft in quite awhile.

 

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I like his intangibles. Should be practically risk free.
He's definitely plug and play and will probably go in the top 3 picks. Only 2 things stopping a FHOF career for this guy, injuries or off the field stuff. Definitely one of my favorite WR's in a draft in quite awhile.
The more and more I think about it? It’s not that far fetched. I don’t know how Gutey feels about that, but it would make our Offense exponentially better. There will still be some really good OT options early to mid Round 2.

Malachi is my guy if he’s there in Rd2. He’s what we could’ve had in Deebo several years ago.
The Packers should have 3 decent picks, with their first 2, possible being in the top 5 in round 1 and 2 and then the Jets pick in round 2, might be in the low 40's. That should give them 3 nice players. I could see Gute doing some of his typical moving around with his picks, using the first pick to turn those 3 picks into 4 and another 4th or 5th round.

Now if the Packers end up with the #1 pick, things would get real interesting as to all their options.

We will see how it works out, but I think the Bears cleaned up last year during their trade with Carolina.

"The Panthers have traded up to acquire the No 1 overall pick in the draft from the Chicago Bears in exchange for Carolina's No 9 and No 61 overall picks in 2023, a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025 and star wide receiver DJ Moore".

So far that #1 pick, Bryce Young, has not been very good for the Panthers. The Bears might end up with 2 very high picks in round 1 in 2024.
 
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tynimiller

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I’m gonna predict the best way Gute spins this high pick is a trade back, pick up additional futures, and then a trade back up into the late first and we nab two first rounders in this draft, one an offensive weapon for Love of some kind, and a starting edge or safety or plug and play OL. If that happened I would argue it doesn’t matter what Gute does rest of the draft (of course not true but damn it would be awesome.)
 

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IMO. I keep reading how we have been hamstrung because of picking at the end of round 1 and now people are advocating for trading back in round 1. I understand it probably means 2 picks to 1 but how about they try picking early in round 1 and getting a gosh darn actual day 1 PLAYER! Still going to have 2 more top 45-50 picks. a TOP 75 & a 110 or so. IMO we don't draft QB so most of those picks move up 4 to 5 spots of position players on their board. The more than likely top 8 pick is really the only one exponentially better than those in the last 2 years value wise. Top 5 draft positions. 2022- picks 22-28-34-92-132 2023- 13-42-50-78-116. Ballparking here-2024 - 8-40-43-72-110. Trading down puts us in that 2022 range, staying put gives them earlier picks at all 5 spots compared to last year. I know it is still early in their careers but nobody in these last 2 drafts screams HOFer or even Pro-Bowler to me. Give the fan base something to get excited about and draft the best player you can.
 

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IMO. I keep reading how we have been hamstrung because of picking at the end of round 1 and now people are advocating for trading back in round 1. I understand it probably means 2 picks to 1 but how about they try picking early in round 1 and getting a gosh darn actual day 1 PLAYER! Still going to have 2 more top 45-50 picks. a TOP 75 & a 110 or so. IMO we don't draft QB so most of those picks move up 4 to 5 spots of position players on their board. The more than likely top 8 pick is really the only one exponentially better than those in the last 2 years value wise. Top 5 draft positions. 2022- picks 22-28-34-92-132 2023- 13-42-50-78-116. Ballparking here-2024 - 8-40-43-72-110. Trading down puts us in that 2022 range, staying put gives them earlier picks at all 5 spots compared to last year. I know it is still early in their careers but nobody in these last 2 drafts screams HOFer or even Pro-Bowler to me. Give the fan base something to get excited about and draft the best player you can.

Agreed

I wouldn't want to trade out of the top 10 picks, but if the Packers have a top 3 pick and get a great offer like the one the Bears got in 2023 and still can get a top 10 guy, I'd take it. Most likely, you are getting the best player in the draft, at their position.
 

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I agree. I just think they are a 5-6 win team. NYG are down to their 3rd stringer. Carolina is bad. Is Dobbs a mirage? The most anticipated finale with da Bears. These are all possible wins IMO.
 
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tynimiller

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Agreed

I wouldn't want to trade out of the top 10 picks, but if the Packers have a top 3 pick and get a great offer like the one the Bears got in 2023 and still can get a top 10 guy, I'd take it. Most likely, you are getting the best player in the draft, at their position.
IMO. I keep reading how we have been hamstrung because of picking at the end of round 1 and now people are advocating for trading back in round 1. I understand it probably means 2 picks to 1 but how about they try picking early in round 1 and getting a gosh darn actual day 1 PLAYER! Still going to have 2 more top 45-50 picks. a TOP 75 & a 110 or so. IMO we don't draft QB so most of those picks move up 4 to 5 spots of position players on their board. The more than likely top 8 pick is really the only one exponentially better than those in the last 2 years value wise. Top 5 draft positions. 2022- picks 22-28-34-92-132 2023- 13-42-50-78-116. Ballparking here-2024 - 8-40-43-72-110. Trading down puts us in that 2022 range, staying put gives them earlier picks at all 5 spots compared to last year. I know it is still early in their careers but nobody in these last 2 drafts screams HOFer or even Pro-Bowler to me. Give the fan base something to get excited about and draft the best player you can.

So regardless of what players are available you're saying stay and pick - no matter?

I see it very differently, and it is all not just what your board says number wise for guys, but your grades on them. I've always held quite firm that regardless of where you are in the draft IF you don't have a player grade on your board that sniffs where you are, and you get a pick package in a trade call that puts you back in a range where the value now connects with the board it is the professional and wise thing to at minimum consider it.

Example...let's say we stay where we are now at 6th. Now, arguably the list of knock out BLUE chip level day 1 starters include the list below...now this is no doubters, I personally would add a couple potentially...but these are what many will as they say "lock in":
QBs
Drake Maye Caleb Williams
WRs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
TEs
Brock Bowers
OLs
Olumuyiwa Fashanu


EDGEs
Verse and Turner...maybe....but it is more positional value that make them considered this high.
CBs
Kool-Aid or Dejean or Wiggins

Let's say in some fashion MHjr, Williams, Maye and Olu go in top four. At 5 let's say that team takes either Bowers or one of the Edges or perhaps a CB due to their value...

So there we sit at 6, there is possibly not close to a Blue Chip level type guy on our board (let's say a guy with a grade higher than 90.0 if we use such a grading system).

But...the phone rings.....Jets looking to shore up their protection along the line really like Joe Alt and want to make something happen...they offer their 12th pick, 109th and a next year 1st or they'd do their 12th, 78th, and both their 2nd and 3rd next year for our 6th and a next year 5th of ours.

Now we don't have anyone graded high enough, but if that is the only offer we get may make sense to trust our board overall and draft a guy that might just be our answer to the future post-Preston or shore up CB room with Jaire not playing best now, Stokes injured and Rasul gone because both those positions are of MASSIVE value.

Now what if a second call comes in and it is say the Titans...they really want Alt as well for their Levis future or maybe they really like Nabers or Coleman...they will send their 8th pick, 39th pick for our 6th and 79th. Essentially they move up two, we stay top ten and turn our 79th pick into a high second rounder.

If I'm Gute as much as I would love to build up the massive equity of the Jets pick and potentially move around more or have that reserve fund for a failed Love 2024 experiment...the Titans swap makes a ton of sense especially if my board is still as strong at 8 likely as it is at 6 without a massive blue chipper and I have say a cluster of three or four guys you'd be willing to spend at 6, well two of those guys are still likely there at 8.

I try not to lock in on one mindset too much because I don't think that's the appropriate way of handling it as a GM - I know of course that's just my thoughts however. I mean shoot last time we picked that high-ish we picked a guy EVERYONE loves to dog as dog doodoo in AJ Hawk....just a guy that shored up and started at ILB for years for us. Nothing is guaranteed even in the top 10 or top 5 for that matter.
 

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So regardless of what players are available you're saying stay and pick - no matter?

I see it very differently, and it is all not just what your board says number wise for guys, but your grades on them. I've always held quite firm that regardless of where you are in the draft IF you don't have a player grade on your board that sniffs where you are, and you get a pick package in a trade call that puts you back in a range where the value now connects with the board it is the professional and wise thing to at minimum consider it.

Example...let's say we stay where we are now at 6th. Now, arguably the list of knock out BLUE chip level day 1 starters include the list below...now this is no doubters, I personally would add a couple potentially...but these are what many will as they say "lock in":
QBs
Drake Maye Caleb Williams
WRs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
TEs
Brock Bowers
OLs
Olumuyiwa Fashanu


EDGEs
Verse and Turner...maybe....but it is more positional value that make them considered this high.
CBs
Kool-Aid or Dejean or Wiggins

Let's say in some fashion MHjr, Williams, Maye and Olu go in top four. At 5 let's say that team takes either Bowers or one of the Edges or perhaps a CB due to their value...

So there we sit at 6, there is possibly not close to a Blue Chip level type guy on our board (let's say a guy with a grade higher than 90.0 if we use such a grading system).

But...the phone rings.....Jets looking to shore up their protection along the line really like Joe Alt and want to make something happen...they offer their 12th pick, 109th and a next year 1st or they'd do their 12th, 78th, and both their 2nd and 3rd next year for our 6th and a next year 5th of ours.

Now we don't have anyone graded high enough, but if that is the only offer we get may make sense to trust our board overall and draft a guy that might just be our answer to the future post-Preston or shore up CB room with Jaire not playing best now, Stokes injured and Rasul gone because both those positions are of MASSIVE value.

Now what if a second call comes in and it is say the Titans...they really want Alt as well for their Levis future or maybe they really like Nabers or Coleman...they will send their 8th pick, 39th pick for our 6th and 79th. Essentially they move up two, we stay top ten and turn our 79th pick into a high second rounder.

If I'm Gute as much as I would love to build up the massive equity of the Jets pick and potentially move around more or have that reserve fund for a failed Love 2024 experiment...the Titans swap makes a ton of sense especially if my board is still as strong at 8 likely as it is at 6 without a massive blue chipper and I have say a cluster of three or four guys you'd be willing to spend at 6, well two of those guys are still likely there at 8.

I try not to lock in on one mindset too much because I don't think that's the appropriate way of handling it as a GM - I know of course that's just my thoughts however. I mean shoot last time we picked that high-ish we picked a guy EVERYONE loves to dog as dog doodoo in AJ Hawk....just a guy that shored up and started at ILB for years for us. Nothing is guaranteed even in the top 10 or top 5 for that matter.

I was replying to someone that commented on the fact that most of us discuss how the Packers are hamstrung each year by picking late in the 1st round and now some of us are advocating trading out of a draft position where we don't get a "blue chip" starter.

I fully agree with your draft strategy. If you are on the clock and there isn't one player on the board that is head and shoulders above a group you have ranked equally and you have a chance to trade back and safely get 1 of the players in said group and an additional pick(s), you do it.

What I wouldn't advocate is passing up on players you have in a top tier group and settling for getting one in your next tier, just to get an extra pick(s). Especially in round 1. Round 5? Maybe.

No doubt in my mind, the more darts you have to throw, chances of hitting on a bullseye increases. However, I wouldn't want to trade for more darts, if it means passing on a coveted 1st tier guy and making that bullseye almost disappear off the board.

My feeling the higher up on that board you sit, the more options you have on day 1 and 2, having the #1 spot, obviously being the most lucrative.
 

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Is Dobbs a mirage?
Hopefully.

I haven't watched him play, but based on history, a virtual unknown at QB can come in and shine for awhile, but once opposing DC's have enough film on them, that success rate can go down.
 
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tynimiller

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I was replying to someone that commented on the fact that most of us discuss how the Packers are hamstrung each year by picking late in the 1st round and now some of us are advocating trading out of a draft position where we don't get a "blue chip" starter.

I fully agree with your draft strategy. If you are on the clock and there isn't one player on the board that is head and shoulders above a group you have ranked equally and you have a chance to trade back and safely get 1 of the players in said group and an additional pick(s), you do it.

What I wouldn't advocate is passing up on players you have in a top tier group and settling for getting one in your next tier, just to get an extra pick(s). Especially in round 1. Round 5? Maybe.

No doubt in my mind, the more darts you have to throw, chances of hitting on a bullseye increases. However, I wouldn't want to trade for more darts, if it means passing on a coveted 1st tier guy and making that bullseye almost disappear off the board.

My feeling the higher up on that board you sit, the more options you have on day 1 and 2, having the #1 spot, obviously being the most lucrative.

The one thing I am predicting that happens which could play to our benefit is a third QB floats to the demand charts of teams deciding to target a QB...is that Sanders if he does declare...is that JJ or Daniels...Penix....someone I think is going to pop...

And why this is crucial for us is you may have the small trade back with a team like the Falcons who may very well wash out only a few picks behind us but will easily be in the top 10/12 most likely. Buccs...Raiders....Rams (is stafford finally too old?)....all those teams are likely to be in the top 15 at worst I think.

My personal "gamechanging walk in Day1 as a #1 in GB" guys are presently:

Olu at OT
Bowers at TE
MHjr / Nabers / Coleman at WR
Maye at QB

That's 6 guys and QB IMO I've outlined before I think is a misguided position for the roster to do until 2025 draft. So I have five guys...and one might make the argument picking a WR really makes Watson, Reed two second round picks a wasted pick to an extent...

That's where there then are the positional value positions like CB and Edge who IMO are always overdrafted more than any other position because of the positions. I don't have any CB that comes in over Jaire (now Wiggins and Kool-Aid would be our CB2 IMO), nor do I have any edge come in over Smith or Gary.

This is why a 3rd QB entering the game could be the perfect smaller trade back, pick up some value albeit small but really not change your board a ton.
 
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tynimiller

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What's even crazier is...I have Kamren Kitchens and Tyler Nubin both chalked in as absolute 100% IMO for sure starters day 1 at safety...but NEITHER is worth a first round pick for positional value as early as we will pick if honest.
 

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The one thing I am predicting that happens which could play to our benefit is a third QB floats to the demand charts of teams deciding to target a QB...is that Sanders if he does declare...is that JJ or Daniels...Penix....someone I think is going to pop...

And why this is crucial for us is you may have the small trade back with a team like the Falcons who may very well wash out only a few picks behind us but will easily be in the top 10/12 most likely. Buccs...Raiders....Rams (is stafford finally too old?)....all those teams are likely to be in the top 15 at worst I think.

My personal "gamechanging walk in Day1 as a #1 in GB" guys are presently:

Olu at OT
Bowers at TE
MHjr / Nabers / Coleman at WR
Maye at QB

That's 6 guys and QB IMO I've outlined before I think is a misguided position for the roster to do until 2025 draft. So I have five guys...and one might make the argument picking a WR really makes Watson, Reed two second round picks a wasted pick to an extent...

That's where there then are the positional value positions like CB and Edge who IMO are always overdrafted more than any other position because of the positions. I don't have any CB that comes in over Jaire (now Wiggins and Kool-Aid would be our CB2 IMO), nor do I have any edge come in over Smith or Gary.

This is why a 3rd QB entering the game could be the perfect smaller trade back, pick up some value albeit small but really not change your board a ton.
No doubt draft boards will change between now and the end of April, as could teams needs. Much like you, for the first round, I like to keep an eye on those top players at positions that I don't think are an immediate need for the Packers. QB seems to be the position that teams are willing to throw all caution to the wind and move up to grab one. The best thing that can happen to the Packers is a top 5 pick and 4 QB's looking like top 10 picks. Whatever pick they have, it will have a lot more value. The Bears stand a good chance of having 2 picks in the top 5, I can see them using 1 for a QB and the other to trade back and get more picks.

Once the season is finished and after the combine, we will have a much better picture of options for the Packers, as well as their needs.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I agree. I just think they are a 5-6 win team. NYG are down to their 3rd stringer. Carolina is bad. Is Dobbs a mirage? The most anticipated finale with da Bears. These are all possible wins IMO.
I could see the Packers sitting at 3-9 going into their final 5 games, against as you say, beatable teams. Much like last season, I am going to stick to my guns, the worst thing for the Packers is to somehow win those games and finish at 8-9 and out of the playoffs. It would take one hell of an improvement for this team to go very far, even if they somehow did make the playoffs.

Anything is possible, but if they are 3-9 going into that stretch, time to see what the bench players have, move up PS guys, treat those last 5 games as auditions for 2024 and please...don't win them all and end up with 6 mid round draft picks because of it.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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No doubt draft boards will change between now and the end of April, as could teams needs. Much like you, for the first round, I like to keep an eye on those top players at positions that I don't think are an immediate need for the Packers. QB seems to be the position that teams are willing to throw all caution to the wind and move up to grab one. The best thing that can happen to the Packers is a top 5 pick and 4 QB's looking like top 10 picks. Whatever pick they have, it will have a lot more value. The Bears stand a good chance of having 2 picks in the top 5, I can see them using 1 for a QB and the other to trade back and get more picks.

Once the season is finished and after the combine, we will have a much better picture of options for the Packers, as well as their needs.

I still think we are setting up for a defensive pick with our first one...given positional value, trading of Rasul, Stokes injury and Jaire play regressing.....I strongly encourage folks to get VERY familiar with the DBs in this draft...names like Wiggins, Kool-Aid, Cooper DeJean, Kalen King or Denzel Burke are the main five a ton of folks point to...but BUT I really love DJ James personally and don't think Burke is worthy of first day consideration.
 

AmishMafia

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So regardless of what players are available you're saying stay and pick - no matter?

I see it very differently, and it is all not just what your board says number wise for guys, but your grades on them. I've always held quite firm that regardless of where you are in the draft IF you don't have a player grade on your board that sniffs where you are, and you get a pick package in a trade call that puts you back in a range where the value now connects with the board it is the professional and wise thing to at minimum consider it.

Example...let's say we stay where we are now at 6th. Now, arguably the list of knock out BLUE chip level day 1 starters include the list below...now this is no doubters, I personally would add a couple potentially...but these are what many will as they say "lock in":
QBs
Drake Maye Caleb Williams
WRs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
TEs
Brock Bowers
OLs
Olumuyiwa Fashanu


EDGEs
Verse and Turner...maybe....but it is more positional value that make them considered this high.
CBs
Kool-Aid or Dejean or Wiggins

Let's say in some fashion MHjr, Williams, Maye and Olu go in top four. At 5 let's say that team takes either Bowers or one of the Edges or perhaps a CB due to their value...

So there we sit at 6, there is possibly not close to a Blue Chip level type guy on our board (let's say a guy with a grade higher than 90.0 if we use such a grading system).

But...the phone rings.....Jets looking to shore up their protection along the line really like Joe Alt and want to make something happen...they offer their 12th pick, 109th and a next year 1st or they'd do their 12th, 78th, and both their 2nd and 3rd next year for our 6th and a next year 5th of ours.

Now we don't have anyone graded high enough, but if that is the only offer we get may make sense to trust our board overall and draft a guy that might just be our answer to the future post-Preston or shore up CB room with Jaire not playing best now, Stokes injured and Rasul gone because both those positions are of MASSIVE value.

Now what if a second call comes in and it is say the Titans...they really want Alt as well for their Levis future or maybe they really like Nabers or Coleman...they will send their 8th pick, 39th pick for our 6th and 79th. Essentially they move up two, we stay top ten and turn our 79th pick into a high second rounder.

If I'm Gute as much as I would love to build up the massive equity of the Jets pick and potentially move around more or have that reserve fund for a failed Love 2024 experiment...the Titans swap makes a ton of sense especially if my board is still as strong at 8 likely as it is at 6 without a massive blue chipper and I have say a cluster of three or four guys you'd be willing to spend at 6, well two of those guys are still likely there at 8.

I try not to lock in on one mindset too much because I don't think that's the appropriate way of handling it as a GM - I know of course that's just my thoughts however. I mean shoot last time we picked that high-ish we picked a guy EVERYONE loves to dog as dog doodoo in AJ Hawk....just a guy that shored up and started at ILB for years for us. Nothing is guaranteed even in the top 10 or top 5 for that matter.
Well said. Lots of folks seem to think teams have the same boards and rank players in order like all the websites do and not grade them individually. There are a lot of factors involved in maneuvering the draft board.

This draft there seems to be a bunch of OTs that could go in the first. Maybe 8 or 10 so some should be available in the early 2nd. The Packers may have 3 OTs graded the same who are available when their 1st pick comes up. Now if Gute trades back 5 spots we are still likely to get one and we picked up an extra 2nd round pick without sacrificing BPA. Thats a big win!

Gutes first draft getting Jaire and a 1st round pick was a perfect example of this.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Well said. Lots of folks seem to think teams have the same boards and rank players in order like all the websites do and not grade them individually. There are a lot of factors involved in maneuvering the draft board.

This draft there seems to be a bunch of OTs that could go in the first. Maybe 8 or 10 so some should be available in the early 2nd. The Packers may have 3 OTs graded the same who are available when their 1st pick comes up. Now if Gute trades back 5 spots we are still likely to get one and we picked up an extra 2nd round pick without sacrificing BPA. Thats a big win!

Gutes first draft getting Jaire and a 1st round pick was a perfect example of this.

Yup, and folks don't realize that often (not always, but often) in those trade discussions the team finds out who the team is trading for....

I know for a fact this has happened....

Team X sits at 10th.

When their turn comes up the 11th team has already had conversations with them that they want to know IF someone wants up and has a standing offer if Player Bob Schults is on the board still.

Clock starts and Team X knows the small swap in picks with 11th team nets them "THIS" so if anyone calls they gotta have better offered...but likewise if time allows and they do get an offer sometimes they'll call the 11th team back up and say look I got a team offering this.....team 11 gets on the phone (another phone) and calls that team to confirm....

The day of trades can sometimes be sheeeer chaos in the war room.....the whole time all this is going on the GM has likely notified the team this is who we are picking if we stay and don't move as to not miss their pick time (which has happened).
 
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