1. Welcome to Green Bay Packers NFL Football Forum & Community!

    Packer Forum is one of the largest online communities for the Green Bay Packers. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Sign Up or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Mid season analysis - Fill in the blank

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Poppa San, Nov 1, 2014.

  1. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    5,839
    Ratings:
    +1,631
    Name 1 reason the Packers are 5-3 and not better (or worse):
    .
    Midseason MVP:
    .
    Midseason disappointment:
    .
    Midseason surprise:
    .
    Most defining stat:
    .
    Most overblown stat:
    .
    I’m optimistic because . . . :
    .
    I’m pessimistic because . . . :
    ,
    Preseason predicted finish:
    Updated predicted finish:
     
  2. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,692
    Ratings:
    +6,647
    Name 1 reason the Packers are 5-3 and not better (or worse): defense can't win a game when offense isn't on fire

    Midseason MVP: Aaron Rodgers

    Midseason disappointment: Clay Matthews

    Midseason surprise: Corey Linsley

    Most defining stat: Rushing yards allowed

    Most overblown stat: Total yards gained

    I’m optimistic because . . . : five out of eight at home, we've got the best QB in the league

    I’m pessimistic because . . . : the defense hasn't shown the ability to stop good offenses, for 3 1/2 years now!!'

    Preseason predicted finish: no prediction

    Updated predicted finish: 11-5
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. red4tribe

    red4tribe Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2009
    Messages:
    944
    Ratings:
    +437
    MVP- Rodgers

    Disappointment- Clay Matthews

    Midseason Surprise- Davante Adams and Corey Linsley

    Most defining stat- 32nd in Rush Defense

    Most overblow stat- Not sure on this one

    I'm optimistic because- I think the Packers should finish at least 11-5

    I'm pessimistic because- With that swiss cheese on defense, we are looking like another 1 and done in the playoffs. Plus I don't know that we will catch the Lions.

    Final Record- 11-5
     
  4. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2010
    Messages:
    5,839
    Ratings:
    +1,631
    Name 1 reason the Packers are 5-3 and not better (or worse):
    Coaching. They'd be better if the head coach canned the DC and also did not hamstring his HOF QB by suspect play calling.
    Midseason MVP:
    Jordy
    Midseason disappointment:
    Offensive line
    Midseason surprise:
    Safeties
    Most defining stat:
    One quarter of the games, the defense has not forced a punt.
    Most overblown stat:
    Defensive results vs teams with average or poor QB's
    I’m optimistic because . . . :
    Four games left versus playoff caliber offenses and all are at Lambeau.
    I’m pessimistic because . . . :
    The "new, improved" defensive scheme has already been shelved and this defense looks to again be unable to stop a playoff caliber team on a consistent basis.
    Preseason predicted finish: 12-4 but I don't think I posted it.
    Updated predicted finish: 11-5 and 1-1 post season
     
  5. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2004
    Messages:
    3,158
    Ratings:
    +1,312
    Reason for record: below average offensive line play and defensive front 7 play

    MVP: Rogers

    Disappointment: see Reason

    Surprise: being in 2 games without a punt, doubling the number in the entire history of the league.

    Defining stat: 20th ranked offensive line; 26th ranked defensive line (Football Outsiders)

    Overblown Stat: Punting

    Optimistic because: Rogers

    Pessimistic because: possibility of Rogers injury

    Preseason prediction: 16 and 0. What Packers fan ever sees a loss?

    Updated prediction: 10 and 6 with losses to New England, Philly and at Buffalo; final game win against Detroit clinching a wild card playoff spot. Early out in playoffs. Again.
     
  6. Mklangelo

    Mklangelo Feng Shui Debunker

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2014
    Messages:
    572
    Ratings:
    +175
    Midseason MVP: Mr. Rogers
    .
    Midseason disappointment: Matthews who they are stuck with until 2019 with a HUGE cap hit of 10 million and it just keeps getting larger with each year of his contract.
    .
    Midseason surprise: Linsley
    .
    Most defining stat: Rushing yards total by Lacy in 2013 at midway: 589.
    This year: 428. Down 27%.

    Lacy has 26% fewer carries this year (105 vs 142 last year) and his yardage production is down 27%.

    I'm not worried about Lacy. His average is still 4.1 per carry.

    The attempts just aren't there because the defense can't get off the field.

    Time of Possession is way down (46.7%) That explains your drop in rush attempts as offense is often playing catch up. (love the fake spike in Miami BTW)

    Incidentally Lacy's TD production is down by... wait for it... yep, about 27%.


    Most overblown stat: Not sure. There are no stats that CAN be hyped other than Rogers and I don't think you can over-blow his value.
    .
    I’m optimistic because . . . : We have a great coaching staff and some really smart players. And of course the QB.
    .
    I’m pessimistic because . . . : The Defense can't get off the field.
    ,
    Preseason predicted finish: 12-4
    Updated predicted finish: 11-5
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2012
    Messages:
    7,803
    Ratings:
    +3,747
    The Packers 5 wins are against teams that are currently at 0.500 or worse.

    Edit: MIA was 4-3 at the time I wrote this. That does not affect the overall assessment or predicted finish.

    Midseason MVP: You know who.

    Midseason disappointment: D-Line. Matthews is a popular choice for this category, but I think he's played well even if the sack count is down. Bulaga is a minor disappointment, not having returned to 2011/2012 form; I call it "minor" because we don't know the extent of the pain he may be playing with.

    Midseason surprise: (1) Davonte Adams (very good route running for a rookie notwithstanding being the responsible party for one of the NO interceptions), (2) Linsley, (3) James Starks' remarkably improved blocking.

    Most overblown stat: Nothing stands out. We can always say that "hurry" stats are overblown, but that has nothing to do with the Packers in particular.

    I’m optimistic because: (1) +8 (3rd. in the league) in turnover differential, (2) There's only one viable competitor for the Division title, (3) 5 of 8 remaining games are at home, (4) of the 3 remaining road games, only one (Buffalo) is against a team currently with a winning record. (5) Philly is not as good as their record.

    I’m pessimistic because: The front 7 are who we thought they were.

    Preseason predicted finish: 10-5-1

    Updated predicted finish: 10-5-1
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2014
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2012
    Messages:
    7,803
    Ratings:
    +3,747
    2013:

    4.1 yds/carry
    4.7 carries/rushing first down
    25.8 carries/rushing TD
    1 fumble lost

    2014:

    4.1 yds/carry
    4.8 carries/rushing first down
    26.3 carries/rushing TD
    1 fumble lost to date

    Lacy's the same runner he was last year, just with fewer carries as you note.

    I observed in preseason that Lacy's a good receiver and I'd be looking for him to get 50+ catches this season. While not quite on that pace (22 catches to date), the NO game was an indication of his value in the passing the game which also mitigates not having a go-to TE. He's also a decent blocker. I have no issues with Lacy whatsoever.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2014
  9. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2013
    Messages:
    1,391
    Ratings:
    +460
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2014
  10. Mklangelo

    Mklangelo Feng Shui Debunker

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2014
    Messages:
    572
    Ratings:
    +175
    Lacy is as solid as a rock.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2014
  11. Mklangelo

    Mklangelo Feng Shui Debunker

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2014
    Messages:
    572
    Ratings:
    +175
    I agree 100%. He's got good hands and they should use em'.
     
  12. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2010
    Messages:
    16,590
    Ratings:
    +4,273
    Peter King his the Pack ranked #5 at this point in the season. If you just read things on the forum the past week you would think it was more like 25
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  13. Mklangelo

    Mklangelo Feng Shui Debunker

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2014
    Messages:
    572
    Ratings:
    +175
    I respectfully disagree with Mr. King. No team with the shortcommings the Packers have is #5. Take away Rogers and you have a pretty average team.
     
  14. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2011
    Messages:
    3,524
    Ratings:
    +1,992
    Peter King has had the Packers up his jock ever since he fell in love with Favre. We are legitimately a top 10 team but as captainWIMM stated, "[this] defense can't win a game when offense isn't on fire." We will be in some shootouts and be up and down. I think that we'll win the division but have a usual early exit from the playoffs. We don't have enough offensive weapons to dominate when the defense is mediocre to poor. The defense can play better but I don't think that Guion plays 100% most of the time (unless he's playing the Vikings), the DL and LBs are pretty atrocious as a group, and the high quality of our DBs is the only thing that keeps us in games. They need pressure on the QBs to be effective though.
     
  15. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2014
    Messages:
    607
    Ratings:
    +328
    Name 1 reason the Packers are 5-3 and not better (or worse): Only reason they're 5-3 is that AR is on top of his game.
    .
    Midseason MVP: Aaron Rodgers
    .
    Midseason disappointment: Defensive Line ~ thought smaller, quicker guys could apply more pressure and foil more running lanes... I was wrong.
    .
    Midseason surprise: Linsley playing as well as he has... room for improvement but passable for a rookie.
    .
    Most defining stat: #32 ranking against the run. Should've signed Pickett when Raji went down for 30 snaps/gm at NT.
    .
    Most overblown stat: MM's record... that's a testament to AR's abilities, not McCarthy's.
    .
    I’m optimistic because . . . : Aaron Rodgers is still standing at QB.
    .
    I’m pessimistic because . . . : 4 of the Packers top 5 tacklers are DB's... sucks that they have to cover Mega-tron & Tate, Marshall & Jeffries, Jennings & Patterson, etc. AND make tackles in the secondary on running plays.
    .
    Preseason predicted finish: 10-6
    Updated predicted finish: 10-6
     
  16. SoonerPack

    SoonerPack Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2014
    Messages:
    494
    Ratings:
    +376
    Midseason MVP: No brainer. 12

    Midseason disappointment: Run D. Something HAS to be done to improve it.

    Midseason surprise: HaHa Dix. I think he is showing that he is going to be a great one in years to come. Really happy with what he has done thus far.

    Most defining stat: 3rd Down Conversion Rate for our opponents...49/104. That's 47%. Brutal.

    Most overblown stat: Any stat that spins the reality of this teams defensive ineptitude.

    I’m optimistic because: We have 12. We have the best QB in the league so we always have a chance. May be a chicken bleep answer but it's the truth.

    I’m pessimistic because: The D. There's just no way around it. This unit has to play better or there will be no deep PO run this season. Bottom line is if we don't get TO's we don't win. That's tough livin'.

    Preseason predicted finish: 11-5

    Updated predicted finish: Sticking with my original.
     
  17. Carl

    Carl Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2013
    Messages:
    2,771
    Ratings:
    +1,922
    I realize we aren't supposed to correct grammar on here, but I am saying it anyway since I see it often and it's annoying.

    It's "Rodgers" not "Rogers."

    Every Packer fan should know how to spell the name of our future HOF QB. It's not like it's a hard name.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  18. Forget Favre

    Forget Favre Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2009
    Messages:
    8,169
    Ratings:
    +2,803
    I like to call him Biff Mackadoodle.
     
  19. Carl

    Carl Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2013
    Messages:
    2,771
    Ratings:
    +1,922
    King is smart enough to not judge so much from week to week, unlike lots of fans.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  20. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,792
    Ratings:
    +2,175
    Do you really think the Saints without Brees or the Colts without Luck are really better than an average team?

    Every team has shortcomings. The Seahawks have the second worst passing attack in the league. The Cardinals secondary is dead last in passing yards allowed per game. Should they be dismissed as well? There is no perfect team this year.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  21. searmh

    searmh Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2014
    Messages:
    64
    Ratings:
    +16
    Name 1 reason the Packers are 5-3 and not better (or worse): lack of consistency from defence all year and offensive in first few games
    .
    Midseason MVP: Burnett
    .
    Midseason disappointment: Lacy
    .
    Midseason surprise: Safeties
    .
    Most defining stat: #32 ranking against the run
    .
    Most overblown stat: none comes to mind..most pleasing stat: lack of penalties on both sides of the ball
    .
    I’m optimistic because . . . : we have rodgers and an awesome offence
    .
    I’m pessimistic because . . . : the bend not break defence tends to break
    ,
    Preseason predicted finish: 10-6
    Updated predicted finish: 12-4
     
  22. Mklangelo

    Mklangelo Feng Shui Debunker

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2014
    Messages:
    572
    Ratings:
    +175
    I hear ya Carl. But these catastrophic breakdowns are worrisome.

    As opposed to "bend but not break" against a quality offense it is both.
     

Share This Page