Mark this Down,............

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

…..…… LA Rams will play in and win this years Super Bowl.
You heard it here first...……….

 

[XPack]

Do you want to bet on it?

 

[Packer Brother]

Then nobody shows up to the parade. Really unsure why LA has two teams.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Really unsure why LA has two teams.

The NFL definitely made a mistake putting two teams back in Los Angeles. It didn't work in the 90ies and it seems it won't this time around either.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

…..…… LA Rams will play in and win this years Super Bowl.
You heard it here first...……….

The Rams would like to go "all in" now, before they have to pay Goff. That gives them a small window.

They definitely should be in the mix.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

The Rams would like to go "all in" now, before they have to pay Goff. That gives them a small window.

They definitely should be in the mix.

They got a young coach that has his players on the same page, and they all love playing for him.
That kind of chemistry can be dangerous to other teams.

 

[El Guapo]

It's not a first prediction or hardly stepping out on a limb. I remember reading an article around the draft that Vegas was taking the most money on LA to win the Super Bowl. The Rams were one of the better teams last year and appear to have made great moves again in the offseason. I would agree that they are a top contender. As Denny Green once said, "If you want to crown them, then crown their ***."

 

[PackAttack12]

…..…… LA Rams will play in and win this years Super Bowl.
You heard it here first...……….

Mark this down:

.............you will start another 3 threads before the end of the week.
You heard it here first.............

 

[Mondio]

They got a young coach that has his players on the same page, and they all love playing for him.
That kind of chemistry can be dangerous to other teams.

it can, and their highly paid RB could blow a knee and their 3rd year QB with 1 decent year could have been figured out by defensive coordinators in the offseason and they adjust for crap. Who knows. I remember when Andrew Luck was going to blow everyone away. When Wilson was the new it at QB. When Kaepernick was the new prototype for NFL QB's. I even remember when GB was poised to win a couple Super Bowls. Things happen. It's hard. The Rams are going all in. they might make it, chances are they won't. That's true for every team. i think anyone over the age of 6 should know that predictions this time of year are pointless.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Rams would like to go "all in" now, before they have to pay Goff. That gives them a small window.

They definitely should be in the mix.

While it seems the Rams are going all-in this season you have to realize they have more cap space available for 2019 than 25 other teams including the Packers.

 

[rmontro]

The Rams would like to go "all in" now, before they have to pay Goff

And I would say they would be smart to do so.
I don't know if the Rams will get to the Super Bowl this year, but they are certainly another obstacle in Green Bay's way. Seems like there are a lot of obstacles in Green Bay's way right now, the NFC looks loaded.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Seems like there are a lot of obstacles in Green Bay's way right now, the NFC looks loaded.

I would agree.
This is why the Packers can't afford to look over their shoulder and stay healthy the year.

 

[Passepartout]

Yeah as with a healthy Aaron Rodgers is the key there!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't know if the Rams will get to the Super Bowl this year, but they are certainly another obstacle in Green Bay's way. Seems like there are a lot of obstacles in Green Bay's way right now, the NFC looks loaded.

There are definitely some good teams in the NFC but as long as Rodgers stay healthy I consider the Packers a contender to reach the Super Bowl as well.

 

[sschind]

Mark this down:

.............you will start another 3 threads before the end of the week.
You heard it here first.............

Is there an over on this.

 

[AmishMafia]

No need to mark it down. I mean, we can always just pull up this thread for reference.

 

[rmontro]

There are definitely some good teams in the NFC but as long as Rodgers stay healthy I consider the Packers a contender to reach the Super Bowl as well.

A contender, certainly. Of course, they haven't been able to break through since 2010, and the competition looks harder than ever.

 

[lambeaulambo]

the NFL needs to mandate that the Rams hire combover for d coordinator, and watch that D melt like the brewers after the all star break.

 

[906Fan]

They are gonna do this year what the Cowgirls did last year. Everyone get hyped up then crash.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

A contender, certainly. Of course, they haven't been able to break through since 2010, and the competition looks harder than ever.

In my opinion the Eagles, Vikings and Rams along with the Packers should be considered legit contenders for making it to the Super Bowl. While it seems there's always one team surprisingly joining that list during the season I don't believe that number is higher than in any other of the past seasons.

 

[rmontro]

In my opinion the Eagles, Vikings and Rams along with the Packers should be considered legit contenders for making it to the Super Bowl.

I've also heard pundits talking up the Falcons, Saints, and Cowboys. The Panthers are dangerous when they have a good year. Also, how real are Garopollo's 49ers? Those are more than half the teams in the NFC.

 

[HardRightEdge]

While it seems the Rams are going all-in this season you have to realize they have more cap space available for 2019 than 25 other teams including the Packers.

A year-forward look at cap space isn't very meaningful without considering the FA class:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/los-angeles-rams/

There's a lot of star power at the top of the list and a starting OL down a few spots.

It's interesting the Rams appear to be continuing negotiations with Donald over an extension with only $3 mil in 2018 cap room ($1 mil to get to 53 and the practice squad). One report has the Rams offering 4 years / $80 million, Donald's agent calling it an insult, with his target being franchise QB money of $25 mil per year:

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2018/...rams-aaron-donald-contract-offers-negotiating

Even at $20 mil per year, how could they do that with $1 mil in cap space since the signing bonus would be prorated starting in 2018? They'd have to make a serious cut or cuts somewhere on the roster to make room given the expected size of the signing bonus in a conventional contract. Or they'd have to skip the signing bonus and give him very large unconditional guarantees of $50+ mil starting in 2019. Since Donald would not be keen on waiting a year for his cash money in the first place, let alone two years, what kind of guaranteed salary would he have to get in 2019 eating into that cap? $25 mil? $35 mil?

From a 2 year perspective, they'll have to cut somebody(s) of significance now or burn a big chunk of 2019 cap on Donald next year with other FAs of significance hitting the market. There's no way around it.

So who could they cut now to pick up the cap savings needed for a Donald big signing bonus in a conventional contract before the season starts?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/cap/

There are not a lot options. Talib is the only single candidate with $11 mil in cap savings. They could cut him and play Robey-Coleman or Shields on the perimeter with little cap cushion left. If it is going to be multiple players, it ain't gonna be Whitworth or Saffold. That leaves Brockers + Barron. And then there's still no cushion. A handful of guys ending on IR or PUP at the start of the season would require another cut.

Of course they could make Donald play under the 5th. year option this year without a new deal and then franchise him next year. Or just let him go in free agency next season. None of those options would be appealing. It's kinda like the Rodgers situation on a smaller scale, the elephant in the corner of the cap room.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A few words about Tod Gurley:

Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to pay top fantasy dollars for this guy.

Gurley had 321 touches in 2016 and 343 touches in 2017. This is a red flag. Even elite running backs who get to around 350 touches (with 343 being close enough for government work) see fall-offs, often sharp ones, in the following season with rare exceptions. This risk is compounded by the $21 million signing bonus payday.

Adrian Peterson was clearly an exception to the rule, a generational player. Maybe multi-generational. Can anybody think of another elite RB who built his way up to a high touch season then followed that up with another elite season? They are rare.

Lesean McCoy is a noted high touch guy with durability, longevity and high productivity. His touches in his first 3 seasons were 195, 285, and 321 in that order. Year 4? Significant fall off with 4 missed games on 254 touches, with a bounce back in year 5:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McCoLe01.htm

How about Le'Veon Bell?

His touches in his first two seasons were 289 and 373 in that order. In year 3 he missed 10 games. Then he bounced back with highly productive years 4 and 5 with 336 touches in 2016 and a whomping 406 touches last season. Was the injury in year 3 a fluke? Perhaps the accumulated beatings over a season carry over to the next season making a RB suseptible to injury.

Or maybe Bell is the successor to Peterson as a decade-long high touch iron man. I wouldn't bet on it. The history of high touch running backs is pretty compelling. In Bell's case the issue is compounded by him being unhappy playing on the franchise tag. Like Gurley, I would not put big fantasy bucks on this guy coming off that 406 touch season.

How about Elliott? 354 touches as a rookie; missed 6 games in his second year with 260 touches. If the pattern holds, he should bounce back.

DeMarco Murray? He had a light-to-reasonable work load his first three seasons then had a huge year 4 on a ridiculous 436 touches. His drop off at Philly in year 5 with a bounce back in year 6 with Tennessee follows the pattern. 7 seasons in he's about worn out.

 

[HardRightEdge]

On a tangential note, I would never have signed Gurley to that contract. Make him work another year for the second contract with the 5th. year option providing some risk mitigation against the high work load fall off (if $9.6 mil guaranteed for 2019 could be considered such). I would have used the Gurley signing bonus and the big guarantee to try to lock up Donald instead.

As it stands, LA is pretty much committed to Gurley through his 7th. season with $8.4 mil in dead cap in 2021. I wouldn't have done that.

I'm not exactly comfortable talking about elite running backs as cannon fodder that get used up and then tossed after a few years. But it's the way it works out more often than not, it's the way the league operates, those players make a ton of money even in fall off seasons, and then they keep making decent money even in decline as teams pick them up as "bargains" in the hope of a contribution often under a reduced work load. The are highly compensated cannon fodder.

As others have noted, the Rams are having trouble selling tickets, 26th. in home attendance last season, playing in front of 25,000 empty seats in the Coliseum in an average week last seasonnot counting no-shows. The LA Chargers were dead last in attendance last season.

While the Coliseum may not be the greatest game-day experience, the market is huge, the weather is terrific, and the Rams came out guns-a-blazing last season. What gives?

For decades conventional wisdom has said the NFL's history of failure in LA is attributable to it being a Saturday football town: UCLA and USC. This kinda looks like a repeat, with hopes hanging on the whiz bang new stadium originally scheduled to open in 2019, now delayed to 2020.

What to do for the next 2 seasons to get more interest and butts in seats? Right now you can get a ticket to the Rams home opener for around $28 in the aftermarket which is hardly auspicious for a purported Super Bowl contender.

Well, one thing to consider is most fans don't go to games to watch All-Pro defensive tackles stuff runs and bull their way to the QB, even if he is the best defensive player in the league. Fans like scoring and some new ones might like to go and see the NFL Offensive Player of the Year run and catch the ball. That might go some ways in explaining why Gurley got his contract and Donald is stil waiting.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've also heard pundits talking up the Falcons, Saints, and Cowboys. The Panthers are dangerous when they have a good year. Also, how real are Garopollo's 49ers? Those are more than half the teams in the NFC.[/QUOTE

I don't consider any of those teams as one of the top contenders in the NFC though. As I've mentioned in my last post it's probable one of them will surprise and emerge as a top team but I fully expect the 49ers to have a rougg awakening in 2018.

DeMarco Murray? He had a light-to-reasonable work load his first three seasons then had a huge year 4 on a ridiculous 436 touches. His drop off at Philly in year 5 with a bounce back in year 6 with Tennessee follows the pattern. 7 seasons in he's about worn out.

Murray retired this offseason.

The LA Chargers were dead last in attendance last season.

That's not surprising as the Chargers currently play their home games at Stub Hub Center in Carson which only seats 27,000 people. It was shocking that there were large contingents of road fans being able to buy tickets for those games though.