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Jonathan Gannon new Packer DC
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<blockquote data-quote="OldSchool101" data-source="post: 1099390" data-attributes="member: 10086"><p>My math brain says (if time allowed) if a K has 70% chance at that distance you take the points. 66.6% of 3 pts is 2pts on average, so in a game with 8-9 possessions 2pts per try across 3 tries is a TD. My point isn’t a blanket approach, it’s more calculating the return and risk. As a general rule in a lower scoring game (call it under <=19 points you take those 2pts (again we’re talking risk not actual 2pt tries. 3 longer FG’s should bring 6 points or 2pts per attempts. Many times we have the ball last also with :45 sec and 2 timeouts. Which is really like having 1:10-1:20 game clock. That’s plenty of time to get inside the opponent 40 and a 75% chance at a W or 95% chance of a W or OT.</p><p></p><p>Conversely if it’s mid Q3 and the score is in that 27-27 area we both know Defenses tire more Q4. The chance of a FG (2pt probability) winning a game is thin imo. You might go on 4th and 2.5 yards to go from their 40 yardline. Depends on the game feel and how our D is playing also.</p><p></p><p>Matt is a grade A playcaller. He’s very average to below average C- assessing risk. I don’t need anyone to tell me about Matt I’ve watched him closely and I don’t know much but i just know what little I know. I’ll tell you who is good. Tony Romo is elite at real time risk. Hate him all we want but he’s quick and highly accurate at risk I’ve witnessed him in the booth and some people have a talent for real time risk and it’s impressive level. Tony should be an advisory coach on game days for us. Guy is brilliant level imo.</p><p>Bilicek, Reed and what’s his face that flipped from Tennessee to NE. That guy is a Masters Class in Risk and understanding the Rule Book. He’s made me chuckle I love watching guys that are leagues above everyone else. Rodgers is an honorable mention if not for his supersized ego.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="OldSchool101, post: 1099390, member: 10086"] My math brain says (if time allowed) if a K has 70% chance at that distance you take the points. 66.6% of 3 pts is 2pts on average, so in a game with 8-9 possessions 2pts per try across 3 tries is a TD. My point isn’t a blanket approach, it’s more calculating the return and risk. As a general rule in a lower scoring game (call it under <=19 points you take those 2pts (again we’re talking risk not actual 2pt tries. 3 longer FG’s should bring 6 points or 2pts per attempts. Many times we have the ball last also with :45 sec and 2 timeouts. Which is really like having 1:10-1:20 game clock. That’s plenty of time to get inside the opponent 40 and a 75% chance at a W or 95% chance of a W or OT. Conversely if it’s mid Q3 and the score is in that 27-27 area we both know Defenses tire more Q4. The chance of a FG (2pt probability) winning a game is thin imo. You might go on 4th and 2.5 yards to go from their 40 yardline. Depends on the game feel and how our D is playing also. Matt is a grade A playcaller. He’s very average to below average C- assessing risk. I don’t need anyone to tell me about Matt I’ve watched him closely and I don’t know much but i just know what little I know. I’ll tell you who is good. Tony Romo is elite at real time risk. Hate him all we want but he’s quick and highly accurate at risk I’ve witnessed him in the booth and some people have a talent for real time risk and it’s impressive level. Tony should be an advisory coach on game days for us. Guy is brilliant level imo. Bilicek, Reed and what’s his face that flipped from Tennessee to NE. That guy is a Masters Class in Risk and understanding the Rule Book. He’s made me chuckle I love watching guys that are leagues above everyone else. Rodgers is an honorable mention if not for his supersized ego. [/QUOTE]
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