TOPackerFan
Cheesehead
I usually think Bob McGinn is an idoit, but a lot of this rings true to me.
Bates' defense OK, not miraculous
Green Bay - One myth a season has been pretty much par for the course when it comes to the Green Bay Packers. This year, it seems to be that Jim Bates has been a miracle-worker for his performance coordinating the team's defense.
This myth got started in the spring when Bates showed his energetic, rah-rah style of coaching in the minicamps.
It gained ground in training camp when Bates kept preaching his message of simplistic but fundamentally sound defense and the veteran players kept praising him for giving them an identity.
Then it appeared to become established as truth over the last 2 1/2 months when the Packers were never out of any game and the defensive ranking in terms of total yards allowed was superior to its final resting place of 25th a year ago. Today, the Packers are No. 10 in the category many people cite as the be-all and end-all when it comes to determining effectiveness.
Bates has been an improvement over his predecessor, Bob Slowik. He brought boundless enthusiasm, natural leadership ability and the Jimmy Johnson system of defense that won three Super Bowls.
But Bates himself would admit that he has been anything but a man of miracles. He's a solid coach and his first defense in Green Bay after 10 games has been OK. To go any further would be making myths.
The Packers are 2-8 for many reasons, and they all don't involve the offense and special teams. The defense clearly must shoulder its share of the blame, too.
In five of the eight defeats, the Packers either were ahead, tied or within a touchdown of the lead with less than 8 minutes remaining. Those five offenses (Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Minnesota twice) presently rank 27th, 20th, 21st and 25th in total yards. Yet, in each case, they found ways to beat the Packers, including three times at Lambeau Field.
Has the Green Bay defense done it when it had to do it? The answer is no. And there can be no greater indictment of a defense than that.
In the opener at Detroit, the Packers trailed, 10-3, with 7 minutes 35 seconds left. With Joey Harrington at the controls, the Lions marched 58 yards in seven plays for the clinching touchdown. Bates tried a six-man pressure on second and 5, and Charles Rogers beat Ahmad Carroll deep for 31 yards. On third and goal at the 3, nickel back Joey Thomas blew a coverage against a man in motion, and Mike Williams beat him for the touchdown pass. The Lions won, 17-3.
The next week, the Packers dominated the second half only to lose, 26-24, when the defense blew coverage on a pair of touchdown passes by Cleveland's Trent Dilfer. The first, a short slant to Braylon Edwards, became an 80-yard touchdown when Thomas and Nick Collins were out of position in a six-man pressure. Then, with the Packers trailing, 19-17, and 3:32 left, the Browns went 80 yards in five plays to score on a 62-yard touchdown pass to Steve Heiden. Bates rushed seven, Dilfer got the ball out and, when Mark Roman blew the tackle 8 yards downfield, the tight end ran free to the end zone.
One week later, the Packers trailed Tampa Bay, 17-16, with 5:03 left when the Buccaneers started from their 31. Despite making uncharacteristic use of eight-man fronts on three plays in a row, Bates' unit allowed Carnell Williams & Co. to run 10 plays, gain 48 yards and run the clock down until it read 0:00. Everyone in the stadium knew Williams would get the ball, but the Packers could not stop him.
At the Metrodome, the Packers led, 17-0, at halftime before falling apart on defense. The Vikings' five second-half possessions resulted in five scores and 23 points. With the Packers leading, 17-13, and 7:46 left, the defense gave up a nine-play, 83-yard touchdown drive. When the Packers tied the score with 17 seconds showing, Thomas misplayed a sideline coverage giving up a 12-yard completion and Paul Edinger had a chance to kick a 56-yard field goal.
And then, last Monday night, the defense took the field with the score tied and the Vikings starting from their 33 with 2:59 left and a makeshift offensive line in front of a ****-armed backup quarterback in Brad Johnson. Three rushes gained 18 yards and a pass gained 8. On second and 2 with 53 seconds showing, Jason Horton made the most monumental of mental mistakes by playing zone when the coverage was supposed to be man-to-man. The result was Johnson's 35-yard lob over his head, another last-second field goal by Edinger and a crushing 20-17 defeat.
Mike Sherman fired Ed Donatell in January 2004 not only because of fourth and 26 in Philadelphia but also the three games that year in which the opponent drove 65, 65 and 77 yards to win tight games in the closing minutes. This season is just 10 games old and already Bates' unit has folded in 50% of the games with the outcome at hand against offenses quarterbacked by Harrington, Dilfer, Brian Griese, a struggling Daunte Culpepper and Johnson.
Now let's glance back at the other five games.
The defense gave up 32 points in Carolina, but bad field position was a contributing factor. Allowing just one first down in the fourth quarter gave the offense a chance to win late in a 32-29 defeat.
Against New Orleans, the defense played spectacularly by forcing five turnovers, all of which were the result of terrific plays, in a 52-3 victory.
The unit was very good all the way in Cincinnati against the Bengals' prolific attack, but it was another loss, 21-14, as Brett Favre tossed five interceptions.
Facing a Pittsburgh offense that was without Ben Roethlisberger and Jerome Bettis, the defense allowed merely 213 yards but couldn't stop Duce Staley down the stretch and lost, 20-10.
The defense's finest performance came in the 33-25 triumph over Atlanta. There was the sensational hustle resulting in three fumble recoveries, the remarkable containment of quarterback Michael Vick and the shutdown of the NFL's top-ranked ground game.
To his credit, Bates has not pleaded poverty about the personnel he was handed by Sherman and Ted Thompson. It isn't anywhere near as good as he was used to having in Miami the previous five seasons, but with intense coaching by Bates and his staff the personnel has turned out to be adequate.
His situation has been helped by the break on injuries. The eight starters on the line and in the secondary have been intact all season. At linebacker, Na'il Diggs had to sit out six games, but it's uncertain how much the current staff values him, anyway.
Bates has done his best work on first down and preventing the big play. The Packers rank fifth in yards allowed on first down at 4.56 and have given up 26 plays of 20 yards or more, down from 45 at this point last season.
The problem areas are red-zone defense, in which the Packers rank 23rd at 55.2%, and turnovers, in which they are tied for 19th with 15. They do a much better job out in the field than down by the goal-line. They rank 19th against the run and 18th in points allowed.
One possible reason why the Packers don't force more turnovers is their fairly basic system of coverage and blitz. Most quarterbacks don't appear confused by what Bates is doing. Blitzing Al Harris from the slot has worked at times, but the cost has been to remove him from coverage.
Bates is blitzing more than his track record suggested he would. He has rushed five or more on 28.1% of dropbacks, just a notch down from the 29.4% by both Donatell in 2003 and Slowik in ’04. The major difference is in use of zone blitzes. Bates has dropped one or more defensive linemen into coverage on merely 5.4% of his blitzes compared to 12.6% for Slowik and 13.7% for Donatell in ’03. If that figure holds up, it would be the lowest in Green Bay since Fritz Shurmur zone-blitzed just 2.3% in ’98.
Although Bates has harped on tackling, his unit has missed 72 tackles by subjective count compared with 55 last season in the same number of games.
The Packers' rank of 10th in yards allowed has been helped by the fact they've almost never been way ahead. The Saints were so pathetic that they couldn't even move the ball in garbage time. In fact, the only so-called "garbage" yardage against Green Bay was 81 by Atlanta.
Also rendering the Packers' rank so misleading is the lack of good offenses and quarterbacks they've faced. The Bengals have had the only top-10 offense and Carson Palmer is the only top-10 passer.
From here on, the Packers will see offenses ranked eighth, 28th, 27th, 26th, 28th and first and quarterbacked by rookies, backups and just one good player, Matt Hasselbeck.
The situation later this afternoon in Philadelphia should be tailor-made for a real defense to dominate. Without Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens and three starting offensive linemen, the Eagles have next to nothing on offense, which had been their only strength in a brutal season. Mike McMahon will be operating by the seat of his pants.
Defenses are best measured by take-aways, points allowed, rushing yield and victories, not total yards. Miracle-worker? Much can change in six weeks, but Jim Bates surely hasn't been one yet.
Bates' defense OK, not miraculous
Green Bay - One myth a season has been pretty much par for the course when it comes to the Green Bay Packers. This year, it seems to be that Jim Bates has been a miracle-worker for his performance coordinating the team's defense.
This myth got started in the spring when Bates showed his energetic, rah-rah style of coaching in the minicamps.
It gained ground in training camp when Bates kept preaching his message of simplistic but fundamentally sound defense and the veteran players kept praising him for giving them an identity.
Then it appeared to become established as truth over the last 2 1/2 months when the Packers were never out of any game and the defensive ranking in terms of total yards allowed was superior to its final resting place of 25th a year ago. Today, the Packers are No. 10 in the category many people cite as the be-all and end-all when it comes to determining effectiveness.
Bates has been an improvement over his predecessor, Bob Slowik. He brought boundless enthusiasm, natural leadership ability and the Jimmy Johnson system of defense that won three Super Bowls.
But Bates himself would admit that he has been anything but a man of miracles. He's a solid coach and his first defense in Green Bay after 10 games has been OK. To go any further would be making myths.
The Packers are 2-8 for many reasons, and they all don't involve the offense and special teams. The defense clearly must shoulder its share of the blame, too.
In five of the eight defeats, the Packers either were ahead, tied or within a touchdown of the lead with less than 8 minutes remaining. Those five offenses (Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Minnesota twice) presently rank 27th, 20th, 21st and 25th in total yards. Yet, in each case, they found ways to beat the Packers, including three times at Lambeau Field.
Has the Green Bay defense done it when it had to do it? The answer is no. And there can be no greater indictment of a defense than that.
In the opener at Detroit, the Packers trailed, 10-3, with 7 minutes 35 seconds left. With Joey Harrington at the controls, the Lions marched 58 yards in seven plays for the clinching touchdown. Bates tried a six-man pressure on second and 5, and Charles Rogers beat Ahmad Carroll deep for 31 yards. On third and goal at the 3, nickel back Joey Thomas blew a coverage against a man in motion, and Mike Williams beat him for the touchdown pass. The Lions won, 17-3.
The next week, the Packers dominated the second half only to lose, 26-24, when the defense blew coverage on a pair of touchdown passes by Cleveland's Trent Dilfer. The first, a short slant to Braylon Edwards, became an 80-yard touchdown when Thomas and Nick Collins were out of position in a six-man pressure. Then, with the Packers trailing, 19-17, and 3:32 left, the Browns went 80 yards in five plays to score on a 62-yard touchdown pass to Steve Heiden. Bates rushed seven, Dilfer got the ball out and, when Mark Roman blew the tackle 8 yards downfield, the tight end ran free to the end zone.
One week later, the Packers trailed Tampa Bay, 17-16, with 5:03 left when the Buccaneers started from their 31. Despite making uncharacteristic use of eight-man fronts on three plays in a row, Bates' unit allowed Carnell Williams & Co. to run 10 plays, gain 48 yards and run the clock down until it read 0:00. Everyone in the stadium knew Williams would get the ball, but the Packers could not stop him.
At the Metrodome, the Packers led, 17-0, at halftime before falling apart on defense. The Vikings' five second-half possessions resulted in five scores and 23 points. With the Packers leading, 17-13, and 7:46 left, the defense gave up a nine-play, 83-yard touchdown drive. When the Packers tied the score with 17 seconds showing, Thomas misplayed a sideline coverage giving up a 12-yard completion and Paul Edinger had a chance to kick a 56-yard field goal.
And then, last Monday night, the defense took the field with the score tied and the Vikings starting from their 33 with 2:59 left and a makeshift offensive line in front of a ****-armed backup quarterback in Brad Johnson. Three rushes gained 18 yards and a pass gained 8. On second and 2 with 53 seconds showing, Jason Horton made the most monumental of mental mistakes by playing zone when the coverage was supposed to be man-to-man. The result was Johnson's 35-yard lob over his head, another last-second field goal by Edinger and a crushing 20-17 defeat.
Mike Sherman fired Ed Donatell in January 2004 not only because of fourth and 26 in Philadelphia but also the three games that year in which the opponent drove 65, 65 and 77 yards to win tight games in the closing minutes. This season is just 10 games old and already Bates' unit has folded in 50% of the games with the outcome at hand against offenses quarterbacked by Harrington, Dilfer, Brian Griese, a struggling Daunte Culpepper and Johnson.
Now let's glance back at the other five games.
The defense gave up 32 points in Carolina, but bad field position was a contributing factor. Allowing just one first down in the fourth quarter gave the offense a chance to win late in a 32-29 defeat.
Against New Orleans, the defense played spectacularly by forcing five turnovers, all of which were the result of terrific plays, in a 52-3 victory.
The unit was very good all the way in Cincinnati against the Bengals' prolific attack, but it was another loss, 21-14, as Brett Favre tossed five interceptions.
Facing a Pittsburgh offense that was without Ben Roethlisberger and Jerome Bettis, the defense allowed merely 213 yards but couldn't stop Duce Staley down the stretch and lost, 20-10.
The defense's finest performance came in the 33-25 triumph over Atlanta. There was the sensational hustle resulting in three fumble recoveries, the remarkable containment of quarterback Michael Vick and the shutdown of the NFL's top-ranked ground game.
To his credit, Bates has not pleaded poverty about the personnel he was handed by Sherman and Ted Thompson. It isn't anywhere near as good as he was used to having in Miami the previous five seasons, but with intense coaching by Bates and his staff the personnel has turned out to be adequate.
His situation has been helped by the break on injuries. The eight starters on the line and in the secondary have been intact all season. At linebacker, Na'il Diggs had to sit out six games, but it's uncertain how much the current staff values him, anyway.
Bates has done his best work on first down and preventing the big play. The Packers rank fifth in yards allowed on first down at 4.56 and have given up 26 plays of 20 yards or more, down from 45 at this point last season.
The problem areas are red-zone defense, in which the Packers rank 23rd at 55.2%, and turnovers, in which they are tied for 19th with 15. They do a much better job out in the field than down by the goal-line. They rank 19th against the run and 18th in points allowed.
One possible reason why the Packers don't force more turnovers is their fairly basic system of coverage and blitz. Most quarterbacks don't appear confused by what Bates is doing. Blitzing Al Harris from the slot has worked at times, but the cost has been to remove him from coverage.
Bates is blitzing more than his track record suggested he would. He has rushed five or more on 28.1% of dropbacks, just a notch down from the 29.4% by both Donatell in 2003 and Slowik in ’04. The major difference is in use of zone blitzes. Bates has dropped one or more defensive linemen into coverage on merely 5.4% of his blitzes compared to 12.6% for Slowik and 13.7% for Donatell in ’03. If that figure holds up, it would be the lowest in Green Bay since Fritz Shurmur zone-blitzed just 2.3% in ’98.
Although Bates has harped on tackling, his unit has missed 72 tackles by subjective count compared with 55 last season in the same number of games.
The Packers' rank of 10th in yards allowed has been helped by the fact they've almost never been way ahead. The Saints were so pathetic that they couldn't even move the ball in garbage time. In fact, the only so-called "garbage" yardage against Green Bay was 81 by Atlanta.
Also rendering the Packers' rank so misleading is the lack of good offenses and quarterbacks they've faced. The Bengals have had the only top-10 offense and Carson Palmer is the only top-10 passer.
From here on, the Packers will see offenses ranked eighth, 28th, 27th, 26th, 28th and first and quarterbacked by rookies, backups and just one good player, Matt Hasselbeck.
The situation later this afternoon in Philadelphia should be tailor-made for a real defense to dominate. Without Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens and three starting offensive linemen, the Eagles have next to nothing on offense, which had been their only strength in a brutal season. Mike McMahon will be operating by the seat of his pants.
Defenses are best measured by take-aways, points allowed, rushing yield and victories, not total yards. Miracle-worker? Much can change in six weeks, but Jim Bates surely hasn't been one yet.
