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Good article on Thompson

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by PackFanNChiTown, Jul 31, 2013.

  1. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    49ers defense has Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers, and Glen Dorsey as starters, all free agent acquisitions.
    And guess what? They also participate in the draft. By them adding key pieces via free agency (and trade market, which is how they got Anquan Boldin) they were allowed to draft whoever they felt was the real BPA.
    It allowed them to take a swing at Kaepernick in the 2011 draft even though they were good with Alex Smith and he was not old.

    Teddy is certainly feeling some heat right now about his 100% draft method, gambling on McMillians and MD Jennings and Terrell Mannings, etc. when veterans in free agency could fill those holes and know what the hell they are doing instead of feeding Capers nothing but amateurs and except him to field a top notch defense.
     
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  2. PackerFlatLander

    PackerFlatLander Cheesehead

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    Bingo - you nailed this. The 49ers are a great example of pretty much doing things the right way. If Ted sticks to his ways and refuses to start thinking outside the box on player acquisition and personnel, then I'd just as soon he start packing his bags. Time to change with the times and get with the program. The 49ers are on their way to their 3rd straight conference title game and the Packers aren't. Plain and simple. I could sit here and gloat about how Rodgers has a ring and Kaepernick doesn't. But at this point, I'd sound foolish. The Packers may have a recent title and the 49ers don't, but clearly, they are the class and model franchise right now, along with the Seahawks, in terms of putting their teams in the best position to win it all, and on a consistent basis.

    I hate the 49ers as much as the rest of us these days, but I gotta tell ya - their games that I've watched this season - their entire defense - every player, is always where he's supposed to be. I've pretty much never seen one of them badly out of position on a play. Can we say the same about the Packers' D right now? Hell no. It ain't all coaching - it's more player talent, I would say.

    Mark these words ... if Ted doesn't change his ways, then we could all look back on 2010 someday and assume that we won it in spite of him and not because of him. Not saying ... just saying.
     
  3. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Defensive players picked by Thompson which have had enough "evaluation time" (2011 draft or sooner)

    Davon House
    DJ Smith
    Ricky Elmore
    Lawrence Guy
    Mike Neal
    Morgan Burnett
    CJ Wilson
    BJ Raji
    Clay Matthews
    Jarius Wynn
    Brandon Underwood
    Brad Jones
    Pat Lee
    Jeremy Thompson
    Justin Harrell
    Aar0n Rouse
    Desmond Bishop
    AJ Hawk
    Abdul Hodge
    Will Blackmon
    Johnny Jolly
    Tyrone Culver
    Dave Tollefson
    Nick Collins
    Marviel Underwood
    Brady Poppinga
    Mike Hawkins
    Kurt Campbell

    So that's 28 defensive players picked between 2005 and 2011. Of those 28:

    One became a star (Matthews)
    One was a solid pro-bowler before injury derailed his career (Collins)
    One has been incarcerated for a great deal of his career but has shown average starter ability when here (Jolly)
    One was a solid starter whose career has been recently derailed by injuries (Bishop)
    Five are at best average starters for their position (Neal, Burnett, Raji, Jones, Hawk)
    Nineteen (House, Smith, Elmore, Guy, Wilson, Wynn, Underwood, Lee, Thompson, Harrell, Rouse, Hodge, Blackmon, Culver, Tollefson, Underwood, Poppinga, Hawkins, Campbell) fall into one of these categories: NFL reserve, practice squad body, journeyman NFL player/street free agent, arena league or some other league player, complete NFL bust.

    That does not sound like the drafting guru Ted Thompson that I hear advertised. I count 9 out of 28 defensive draft picks from 2005 until 2011 that turned into even average starting players. We simply have to do better than that.

    Note that many key players from the 2010 defense (Woodson, Pickett, Tramon, Shields, Green, Jenkins) were not drafted by the Packers. We need to get back to how we operated then, when we used ALL available avenues of improving this team.

    I don't know what it is -- if it's smugness about his own perceived drafting abilities, overconfidence, just belief that this is best, but it's not a coincidence that since we started ignoring free agency completely, our defense has gone downhill. When you are going to use draft and develop ONLY, you better be hitting more times than not in the draft. We're not.

    And the 2010 Super Bowl defense was not exclusively a product of draft and develop. Not by a long shot.
     
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  4. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Can you post their contract info? That's my point. You guys are always quick to point out these great signings and you never look at the full contract. Like Peppers signing in Chicago. Like the Bears, the Niners will have to pay the piper.
     
  5. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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  6. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Great post. Factual.

    Remember when Rodgers was out, and we went from hanging on... to losing... to disgusting.... to looking like one of the worst 5 or 3 teams in the NFL?
    And people saying wow "Rodgers sure covered up a lot of issues on that team".

    A)Now, the one tiny issue, tiny, detail was Nick Collins was a star.
    Not just a solid pro-bowler, but a star. He was greatness.

    B) Look at that group. Hawk was a #5 overall pick when there were more talented speciments in that draft available. That (#5 overall) is a premium pick, the highest one we've had since Mandarich and T Buck back in 89 & 92.
    You can do worse though at #5.

    C) That is correct. Ted's drafting is better than average, but not by much. Seriously, tale away Rodgers, and I bet Ted's been fired long by now.
    Don't forget these 2 DB picks: Jerron McMillian in the third round (he didn't even make your list even though he hurt us for now 2 seasons and was already released).
    He was rated a consensus 6-7/UFA guy when Teddy reached up ant took the no-name from Maine.

    And also Davon House, the CB from New Mexico State. Ted took him. A few picks later, his former protege John Schneider got the CB he wanted, from Stanford: Richard Sherman. Now he's considered the BEST CB in the NFL.
    Do we have anyone on our team from Stanford?

    Again, nobody is perfect in the draft.
    But since Ted relies on that draft by far more than anyone else, he HAS to be better than everyone else. Has to.
    Cannot just rely on Rodgers.
     
  7. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Not sure of contract details.
    I never mentioned Peppers. He was a GIGANTIC price, one which we cannot afford.

    But when you hand out new, big long term deals to guys like Morgan Burnett, and Brad Jones (and Hawk before that), it kind of limits your options.
     
  8. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Well then we can't analyze what is a good or bad free agent deal. The Packers are 5th in winning percentage the past 10 years. That's FIFTH Frank. Most of us would agree that most free agents get over-paid. I'm very happy TT doesn't over pay and his method works. FIFTH BEST WINNING PERCENTAGE. I suspect San Fran will be strapped by having to pay a couple of their stars as well as dealing with all those FA contracts. ...but by then....they'll finish last...and this thread will be long gone. Teams that over-pay in the market don't win long term.
     
  9. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Nicely done!

    If one was done for the offense, I think you would get more more of average skill, and only a few busts
     
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  10. PackerFlatLander

    PackerFlatLander Cheesehead

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    Ah ... in no way am I suggesting that the Packers do anything like an Albert Haynesworth, Julius Peppers, or those 90 million dollar deals. I agree with Ted 100% in avoiding that. BUT ... it doesn't hurt to spend some money on mid-tier talent or simply free agents who cab help. Anquan Boldin isn't costing the 49ers a fortune. But he's there helping them win games, isn't he???
     
  11. Forderick

    Forderick Cheesehead

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    He spends money on the guys he drafted(regardless of how marginal of a starter they are). Instead of overpaying "his guys", he could take that money and spend it on a few quality free agents. While they might be still overpayed, if you structure the deal right, It won't hurt the team long term.

    Look at the Patriots, they take chances on older guys, younger guys with attitude problems, and guess what they turn them into good starters. Why is this approach so bad? If you sign a guy cheap for 2 years, if it doesn't work out, cut him, and you won't screw over your cap numbers.

    That is the difference between one and done every year, and 3 conference championships in a row, and the Niners could very well go to a 2nd super bowl in a row. Yes they might fall a bit but teams go through rebuilding phases, it is really hard to keep a team together so when you get a chance at the super bowl you have to win it.

    With a different approach, the packers could have been truly great and really contended for more than 1 super bowl.

    The packers have enough talent to make the playoffs but not enough to win it all. That is the difference between the Niners, Patriots, Denver,and Seattle.

    Free agency is a tool, and a good one when used properly.
     
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  12. yooperpackfan

    yooperpackfan Cheesehead

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    Amen!
     
  13. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Agreed. I think TT should consider snagging proven guys that come at a decent price. Said that many times now. I just think most fans don't look into the future on what these signing impact.

    It's always easy to arm chair QB at this point in the year. I remember looking at the roster last summer as they were debating cuts and thinking "My God, there will be some decent prospects and good players cut from this team". Fast forward to today... about 20 season ending injuries later and a few players that flat out didn't pan out, and here we are.
     
  14. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Ahmad Brooks: 6 years, $37 million
    Glen Dorsey: 2 years, $6 million
    Carlos Rogers: 4 years, $29.3 million
    Justin Smith: 3 years, $16.8 million
    Donte Whitner: 3 years, $11.75 million

    I don´t think any of these contracts is that bad, and even if one of them wouldn´t have worked out for the Niners they wouldn´t have been in cap troubles.

    While I agree with some posters that I don´t want TT to go out and sign top free agents to ridiculous contracts he has to use free agency to bring in some help.
     
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  15. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    You are completely missing the point and you make my point. You're under the belief that this 101 million worth of free agent signings wass worth it without looking past this season. We'll know next year and the year after just how "worth it" it was. Teams that spend THIS kind of money in free agency have not traditionally been consistent winners.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Niners have made it to three consecutive NFC championship games with all of the guys mentioned before contributing to it. So I think they invested that money in a good way.

    And BTW I think signing Whitner for less than $4 million a year looks like a bargain compared to the deal the Packers signed Burnett to.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2014
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  17. net

    net Cheesehead

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    The article's author was making a point: Thompson has spawned a number of folks in the league. Oddly enough he failed to mention John Dorsey who is doing pretty well, too. But the problem with the story is it incorrectly casts Thompson in a wholly favorable light. While he has done many good things, his handling of Mike Sherman was atrocious and arrogant. He gave Sherman a raise, then fired him, leaving the team having to pay out the remainder of the extension. Sherman's contract was up. No one would have blamed TT for firing Sherman when he took over. But he stripped many veterans from Sherman, replaced them with lousy draft picks then fired Sherman after they went 4-12 the next season. I've always felt TT tried to out think the rest of the NFL. On occasion, like with Jennings and Nick Collins, he hits a home run on guys few others ranked highly. He's bombed miserably on Justin Harrell, and I fear D. Sherrod.
    But the one totally nuts thing he does is keep the roster so young each year that they are now getting their lunch handed to them by veteran teams. In doing this, he's managed the cap well, maybe too well. Another veteran on a young team could be the tipping point against the 49'ers for instance. Many were callilng for a better backup QB last summer but that was ignored. Look what McCown did for the Bears.
    Regardless of the past, the future looks less bright. Like all good teams, the salary cap catches up with the team in time and next year you will see a possible 30-40 percent turnover in the roster. Start counting noses and realize they can't keep them all. Then remember Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb go UFA next year.
    We'll see if TT has a tree or he runs and hides behind one.
     
  18. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Can we please stop lumping Sherrod with Harrell? Harrell came out injury prone and then continued to be injury prone. Sherrod struggled to adjust kept getting better to the extent where he was actually able to hold his own on the edge and then suffered a freak injury when a 270+ pound man flopped into the back of his legs.
     
  19. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Average year experience for the Niners roster is 4.5 years....

    8 offensive starters drafted by the Niners had an average draft of Round 2. More then 3 were #1 picks..

    3 not drafted (or went undrafted) by the Niners, and didnt dig to see where they were drafted...

    Their def has a little more experience, but 4 (maybe 3 ) were free agents signed by the Niners 3 years ago..One was signed this year

    So at least 7 starters on def were drafted by the Niners...about half were drafted in last 3 years...Didnt dig deep for the other 4 def starters and where they drafted.

    So they have a butt load of #1's and some drafted in rounds 2 and 3, still on rookie deals..

    The niners didnt do to many free agents...Majority of their players are from their own drafts..

    That is the point, that they will hit the salary cap hard
     
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    That´s the way to build a good team. Draft most of your starters and sign some free agents to fill holes.

    Taking a look at the starters they have drafted on defense, only Tarell Brown is a free agent this year and other than Aldon Smith all are signed at least through the 2016 season.

    It´s a different story on their offense but as long as they´ll be able to keep the defense in tact they´ll be fine.

    As I mentioned before signing Morgan Burnett and Brad Jones to contract extensions last year won´t improve a team´s cap situation either.
     
  21. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    If you never took the time to read the article referenced in the first post of this thread, then you should. I will not say that I agree with all of the article, but it does seem clearly written and explains the Ted Thompson philosophy fairly well. It might be good reading for some in this Forum before they post their opinions. Sometimes a little knowledge is a good thing. ;)
     
  22. PackerFlatLander

    PackerFlatLander Cheesehead

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    I read it initially and it does explain Ted's philosophy very well. However, I'm not convinced that the guy who wrote it really watched every Packers game since 2005. Um ... we did not get "three solid years out of Brandon Chillar". Please. That contract was quite dumb, actually. I'm not here to bash Ted. I'm here to simply point out the fact that other teams are quickly pulling ahead of us. Obviously, John Schneider has proven that he can draft defensive players who are much, much better than what Ted is drafting in Green Bay. The results speak for themselves, there's no way to sugarcoat this. Datone Jones is yet another example of "did next to nothing" - a 1st-round pick that we badly needed production out of, who didn't produce!

    I'm really not up for a lot of "relax, he was a rookie, give him time". Frankly, great, difference-maker players don't need time. They either have it or they don't. So far, yet another Ted 1st round pick disappointment and they're starting to add up!
     
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  23. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    IMO, Ted's picks and signings on the offensive side have been above average. IMO he's been bad on the other side of the ball. That's a different debate however than is it good to draft and develop.

    Having said all of that, Ted is talked about by fellow NFL execs as one of the best GMs in the game.
     
  24. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Where do you get this from??? Did any other GM give you a call and told you about Ted being one of the best in the business??? Normally, other teams executives don´t talk about their counterparts.
     
  25. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Bill Polian who is a former Gm who was canned by the Colts is the only person i've heard give TT props. Funny thing is he drafted Manning who covered up a bad Colts defense for many years. Hmmm?? who does that sound like? the moment Manning went down the Colts defense was exposed and won what? 2 games? and Polian was let go in the off season. Interesting. Now that i think about it the Packers are the Colts of the NFC when they had Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James and Co. I fact, Two teams can't be any more similar haha... they couldn't beat New England for the longest and we can't beat San Franciso.... but atleast the colts went to two SB's under Polian tho. They did it with a high powered offense.. but when they played another team who could score and play defense they couldn't win. Go figure. Bill Polian and TT are the same person that's why he likes Teddy.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2014
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