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Draft evaluations--read then comment

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by net, Dec 29, 2013.

  1. net

    net Cheesehead

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  2. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Look, I've always been a TT guy, but looking over the draft results in his tenure, I'm not as overwhelmed as I want to be. Obviously, you aren't going to hit on every one, but I don't like as much as I thought I would.

    Everyone drafted after Mike Daniels in the 4th in 2012 is no longer even with the team. Same with 2011. Only 3 of the 10 remain, and Sherrod has been a disaster even though he remains. Cobb was a big hit. House is okay.

    Ironically, everyone from the 2010 draft remains, but there isn't an impact player among them.

    Ted has been much poorer in the first round than I would expect given his reputation. Rodgers is obviously his prize pick in the 1st. Harrell and Sherrod have been complete disasters. Matthews was his last impact 1st rounder, and that was in 2009. Hawk and Raji are guys who have made it in the NFL, but these are both top 9 picks. You expect to get more than that at that spot in the draft.

    I'll withhold judgement on Datone Jones and even Perry for now, but it's not encouraging that they've failed to make much impact at all early on. Sure, you can find diamonds later on in the draft, but your best shot at impact players is always in the 1st round. We can't afford to be whiffing as much as we have in the 1st.
     
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  3. yooperpackfan

    yooperpackfan Cheesehead

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    When the whole philosophy is "draft and develop" and then resigning those players. You really can't afford many whiffs before you start moving backward.
     
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  4. buggybill2003

    buggybill2003 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I only wish TT would at least consider signing free agents more. I`m all for building a dynasty, but some of us fans would like a bit more success in our lifetime, not in a few years. Just my opinion, but thats how I feel.
     
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  5. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    True but you have to consider what we lost in the last couple of years. They weren't going to be able to find replacements for guys like Charles Woodson and Nick Collins. Also consider the injuries this team suffered through. Clay Matthews being out was a major loss, any of you really think Kaep runs for a first down on 3rd and ten with Matthews out there? Heck I think if the team left Datone Jones in at OLB, even if it wasn't his position, that the team, that he would have been able shove Kaep out of bounds well short of the first down.

    With the draft it's tough to evaluate one team by itself. I think you'd be surprised with how many top teams tend to whiff with their picks. Furthermore trying to evaluate drafts less than 3 years out tend to be a bit of a fool's errand. I remember at the end of 2007 how many Packer fans were complaining about an awful 2005 draft. At the end of 2008 suddenly it looked like a superb bit of drafting with Nick Collins emerging as an All-Pro and Aaron Rodgers looking to be one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. My advice wait another year on all of the drafts from 2010-on.
     
  6. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Sherrod hasn't been a disaster, it was a flukey injury. For 2010 I'd argue that Quarless has emerged as something of an impact player. Bear in mind that the last 3 drafts mind wind up looking very different if certain key players emerge. If Sherrod turns into a good RT, suddenly that's a good draft. If Nick Perry and Datone Jones become the players they were drafted to be 2012 and 2013 turn into very good drafts.
     
  7. buggybill2003

    buggybill2003 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I take your point obviously, but Woodson wasn`t drafted was he ? Wasn`t he signed as a free agent ? So was Reggie White and look what he did. And a personal favorite of mine Gilbert Brown. Not trying to be confrontational here, just saying. I am not advocating building the whole team with free agents, I`d like to be able to sit and watch my team lift the trophy in my lifetime, and the clock is ticking ;).
     
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  8. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Well who were the Charles Woodson like free agents of the last couple of years? Most have flopped with their new teams. Granted there are exceptions like Glenn Dorsey, who was a bust in a 34 defense before getting a second chance in the 9ers 43 defense. But who should we have grabbed the last couple of years? Consider this, Erik freaking Walden received a multi-million dollar deal from the Colts. I don't think TT is as opposed to FAs as some people think, rather I think he just tends to work with whatever other teams do not value. If FAs suddenly decrease in market value Teddy will start signing them up again.
     
  9. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    If more of the guys that they drafted turned out to be impact players then their drafts would be better? Well, yes...

    I've already said I would withhold judgment on Perry and Jones for now, but they need to start turning a corner in 2014. Particularly Perry.

    Sherrod has been a disaster. He hasn't been good even when healthy. We can't just assume that he would have been an impact player if the injury had never occurred when he never showed any signs of that happening.
     
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  10. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Sherrod was behind the 8-ball his entire rookie season. OL is not an easy position group to adapt in an average season. Sherrod had to go without OTAs and then had an abbreviated training camp. He may have been terrible at first but by the Atlanta and KC games he was holding his own out there. The guy is a physical specimen and I wouldn't bet against him.
     
  11. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    So, here is how I would rate them for 1st rounds:

    Great Picks: Rodgers, Matthews
    Very Good: Bulaga, Jordy*
    Good: Hawk, Raji (I don't think we win SB without Raji)
    Bad: Harrell

    TBD: Neal, Jones, and Sherrod

    *Jordy was top of the 2nd - our first pick of the draft. TT mentioned that they thought they could still get Jordy later, so I took it to mean they would have picked him in the 1st if they didnt trade back.

    So, we are are drafting HOF level players 30% of the time and impact players 60% of the time. We get a bust 15% of the time. That seems well above the NFL average to me. And when you consider we draft late in the first, typically, that is rather impressive.
     
  12. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I would have to respectfully disagree with your rating criteria, then. Rodgers and Matthews great picks? Of course. Jordy very good? Most definitely. Rating Bulaga in the same tier as Jordy is where I start to differ greatly. No way has their impact been similar. Given that Bulaga has missed the last 2 seasons, he would have needed to be a Pro Bowl quality tackle before then to fall into that category, and he was average.

    Hawk and Raji are not good picks relative to their draft slot. Part of the reason that our defense is so mediocre right now is because when we had our opportunities to pick in the top 10, we got mediocre players like Hawk and Raji.

    I assume with Neal you meant Perry because Neal was a 2nd rounder and is already a free agent. Putting Sherrod in the TBD category is generous at best. I think at this point I'd give him no more than a 20% chance of turning into a productive NFL player and an 80% shot at being a bust.

    We aren't drafting Hall of Fame talent 30% of the time in the first round. If we were, I'd be beyond thrilled.
     
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  13. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    No Raji, no Superbowl. Therefore he was a good pick.

    Bulaga missed 7 games in 2012. Not entire season. Prior to that he was a very good RT.

    Do the math. Clay n Aaron are HOF possibles. The last 3 are TBD. That gives us 2 of 7.
     
  14. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Bulaga has missed 28 consecutive games including playoffs. Whether you want to call it 2 seasons, a season and a half, whatever, it's hard to put him in the same category as Jordy Nelson when he hasn't been on the field for even half a season since 2011.

    You might be right about not winning the SB without Raji, but it's pure speculation which I could do about any player on the team that year. Since that year, he's been a flop.

    1st round picks: Rodgers, Hawk, Harrell, Raji, Matthews, Bulaga, Sherrod, Perry, Jones

    Rodgers is a sure-fire HOF'er and Matthews is a possibility. So I see 10-20%.
     
  15. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    I think Jones must have been playing hurt all year. That ankle sprain may still be lingering. He was so explosive and strong prior to the sprain that I can't understand what was going on. It was clear all year long that his snaps were limited. I still think he'll be a stud starting next year.
     
  16. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    As it stands the Packers will never beat teams like san francisco or seattle because we dont have the horses on defense like those teams. On offense we can play with anybody when that group is on but the defense is marginal at best. Patrick willis, navarro bowman, aldon smith, justin smith, carlos rodgers, dante whitner, manny lawson. That defense is built to win games when the offense struggles and the packers d just aint. Our offense struggles we are done because its a completely different philosophy here. Score enough points to help a bad defense. You lose clay matthews the pass rush completely takes a major dip and the defense is barely able to maintain. You can lose two or three guys in san fran and you still have players on that defense that can hold it down until guys get healthy.

    The philosophy here needs to change..even if it means losing some guys on offense so be it. I long for the day when green bay has a top defense because aaron rodgers is good enough to make the offense work no matter whos out there.
     
  17. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Manny Lawson hasn't been a 49er in like, 4 years.

    When he was, he was pretty much just another guy for the most part, like almost everybody on our defense, so he'd fit in pretty well here.
     
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  18. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    I think im mixing up the names...whos the other olb besides aldon smith? I mixed up the names.
     
  19. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Ahmad Brooks?
     
  20. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I wouldn't call him a flop. JAG more like it. It, of course, takes more than 1 player to win the SB. Raji, I felt, was a vital component of that team. If we were doing it over again? I think you would be foolish not to draft him again.

    Kind of silly to already rule Perry and Jones out.

    There are what, 5 players who make it into the HOF each year (1 'historic' player)? Say about 4 are from the first round. So that is about 1 in 8 shot at hitting one. That is 12.5%. This, of course, should be weighted to the top of the draft. I would bet that 50% of HOF selections occur in the top 10 picks. As we don't have that option - we are talking about a 6% chance of hitting one late in the first round. That means we are well above average on hitting HOF players.
     
  21. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Some of you guys are really off base. This years Packer's team can not be judged without considering the injuries. If our team was even marginally more healthy, we'd still be playing and there would be none of this talk about Ted Thompson's failings. Period...end of story. Ted's total portfolio of rostering teams has been very good. He's missed on some big ones just like they all do but all in all he's been very good.
     
  22. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Lacey, Rodgers and Matthews were all guys that Ted was higher on that the rest of the league. Ted was correct on all three. I agree... for every miss we can find a hit and we can't say that about most NFL teams.
     
  23. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    We're going to keep Nick Perry in the potential Hall of Famer discussion, really?

    And that's not true that we haven't had a chance in the top 10. We've had 2 chances and have gotten two mediocre defensive players. The bulk of the defense on an elite Carolina team is made up of post 1st round picks. We shouldn't resign ourselves to not finding eventual impact players picking in the 20's.

    Rodgers was a fantastic pick, of course, but it was really a no-brainer after he fell that far. Trading up for Matthews was fantastic. I'll certainly give credit where it's due.

    I guess it mostly depends on your perspective. I see two great 1st round picks surrounded by a bunch of question marks. You see generally getting value or better in the 1st with only 1 bust sprinkled in there.

    I think not calling Derek Sherrod a bust at this point is really going out of your way to give the benefit of the doubt, IMO. The odds of him rebounding next year to compete for a starting spot over 2 of Bulaga, Bahktiari, Barclay, and a possible draft pick are slim.
     
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  24. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    If we're re-doing the draft, I would take Orakpo, and I'd still win the Super Bowl in 2010. Having him and Matthews on the edges would do as much for the defense as Raji did that year.

    I agree this is hindsight and I wasn't against the pick at the time. I won't argue that he was an important part of the 2010 team.

    I just don't agree that he was a good value pick. You're getting the #9 overall guy in the draft, you certainly hope to get more than one good year.
     
  25. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I agree we should expect more from Raji. As far as Sherrod goes, we had OC named Flannigan, who his leg as a rookie and then return 2 seasons later and have a pretty good career. And Sherrod is a much more talented player. Don't give up yet.
     
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