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Dillon.......keeping defenses honest.
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 875210"><p>It's his job to lose, to be sure, in taking Williams' 35% snap count and 8 carries per game, give or take. You'd reckon they'd look to trade Williams and use Irvin as the emergency #3. Of course after this cockeyed draft, maybe it's trade Jones, use Williams blocking and receiving as the 3rd. down back, and Ervin for some change of pace. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/eek.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":eek:" title="Eek! :eek:" data-shortname=":eek:" /></p><p></p><p>In the whole "lets do what SF does" suspect argument, it's interesting to note the Packers were the better 1st. down team last season.</p><p></p><p>Here's the Packers distances on 2nd. down courtesy of pro-football-reference's play finder tool:</p><p></p><p>2nd. Down Yards to Go / Number of Plays / % of 2nd. down plays</p><p> </p><p><strong>0-3</strong> / 67 / 18.7%</p><p><strong>4-6</strong> / 87 /24.3%</p><p><strong>7-10 /</strong> 153 / 42.7%</p><p><strong>11+ /</strong> 51 / 14.2%</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Average YTG on 2nd. down = 7.55 yards</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7+ YTG on 56.9% of 2nd. down plays</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Aaron Jones averaged 4.9 YPC and Jamaal Williams averaged 3.8 YPC on 1st. down. The net deficit relative to those rushing stats is a function of incompletions, sacks and penaties.</li> </ul><p>Here's the same data for SF:</p><p></p><p><strong>0-3 /</strong> 50 / 14.7%</p><p><strong>4-6 /</strong> 73 / 21.5%</p><p><strong>7-10 /</strong> 150 / 44.1%</p><p><strong>11+ /</strong> 67 / 19.7%</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Average YTG on 2nd. down = 8.10 yards</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7+ YTG on 63.8% of 2nd. down plays</li> </ul><p>That takes us to SF's 2nd. down performance which was superior, jumping to better yards to go positions on 3rd. down.</p><p></p><p>Here's the Packer distances to go on 3rd. down:</p><p> </p><p><strong>0-3</strong> / 37 /18.2%</p><p><strong>4-6</strong> / 57 / 28.1%</p><p><strong>7-10</strong> / 69 / 34.0%</p><p><strong>11+</strong> / 40 / 19.7%</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Avergage YTG on 3rd. down = 7.89 yards [Note: On average, the Packers lost yards on 2nd. down.]</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7+ YTG on 53.7% of plays, a slight 3.2% improvement over 2nd. down</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Aaron Jones averaged 4.4 YPC and Jamaal Williams averaged 5.0 YPC on 2st. down</li> </ul><p>Here's the 49er distances to go on 3rd. down:</p><p></p><p><strong>0-3</strong> / 48 / 23.4%</p><p><strong>4-6</strong> / 64 / 31.2%</p><p><strong>7-10</strong> / 50 / 24.4%</p><p><strong>11+</strong> / 43 / 21.0%</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Average YTG on 3rd. down = 7.35 yards, a modest improvement</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">7+ YTG on 45.4% or 3rd. downs, a signifcant 18.4% reduction over their 2nd. down</li> </ul><p>So, if one wanted to be more like SF, it might be best to run a little more on 2nd. down with the horses already on board. Of course it would help to have SFs defense. Success running the ball goes hand in hand with stout defense in controlling the clock. I don't think a heavy run game works otherwise unless your QB runs on option plays and scrambles for 1,200 yards while putting up a 113 passer rating when he gets around to throwing it. Oh, right, that's the future for Jordan Love. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/rolleyes.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":rolleyes:" title="Roll Eyes :rolleyes:" data-shortname=":rolleyes:" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 875210"] It's his job to lose, to be sure, in taking Williams' 35% snap count and 8 carries per game, give or take. You'd reckon they'd look to trade Williams and use Irvin as the emergency #3. Of course after this cockeyed draft, maybe it's trade Jones, use Williams blocking and receiving as the 3rd. down back, and Ervin for some change of pace. :eek: In the whole "lets do what SF does" suspect argument, it's interesting to note the Packers were the better 1st. down team last season. Here's the Packers distances on 2nd. down courtesy of pro-football-reference's play finder tool: 2nd. Down Yards to Go / Number of Plays / % of 2nd. down plays [B]0-3[/B] / 67 / 18.7% [B]4-6[/B] / 87 /24.3% [B]7-10 /[/B] 153 / 42.7% [B]11+ /[/B] 51 / 14.2% [LIST] [*]Average YTG on 2nd. down = 7.55 yards [*]7+ YTG on 56.9% of 2nd. down plays [*]Aaron Jones averaged 4.9 YPC and Jamaal Williams averaged 3.8 YPC on 1st. down. The net deficit relative to those rushing stats is a function of incompletions, sacks and penaties. [/LIST] Here's the same data for SF: [B]0-3 /[/B] 50 / 14.7% [B]4-6 /[/B] 73 / 21.5% [B]7-10 /[/B] 150 / 44.1% [B]11+ /[/B] 67 / 19.7% [LIST] [*]Average YTG on 2nd. down = 8.10 yards [*]7+ YTG on 63.8% of 2nd. down plays [/LIST] That takes us to SF's 2nd. down performance which was superior, jumping to better yards to go positions on 3rd. down. Here's the Packer distances to go on 3rd. down: [B]0-3[/B] / 37 /18.2% [B]4-6[/B] / 57 / 28.1% [B]7-10[/B] / 69 / 34.0% [B]11+[/B] / 40 / 19.7% [LIST] [*]Avergage YTG on 3rd. down = 7.89 yards [Note: On average, the Packers lost yards on 2nd. down.] [*]7+ YTG on 53.7% of plays, a slight 3.2% improvement over 2nd. down [*]Aaron Jones averaged 4.4 YPC and Jamaal Williams averaged 5.0 YPC on 2st. down [/LIST] Here's the 49er distances to go on 3rd. down: [B]0-3[/B] / 48 / 23.4% [B]4-6[/B] / 64 / 31.2% [B]7-10[/B] / 50 / 24.4% [B]11+[/B] / 43 / 21.0% [LIST] [*]Average YTG on 3rd. down = 7.35 yards, a modest improvement [*]7+ YTG on 45.4% or 3rd. downs, a signifcant 18.4% reduction over their 2nd. down [/LIST] So, if one wanted to be more like SF, it might be best to run a little more on 2nd. down with the horses already on board. Of course it would help to have SFs defense. Success running the ball goes hand in hand with stout defense in controlling the clock. I don't think a heavy run game works otherwise unless your QB runs on option plays and scrambles for 1,200 yards while putting up a 113 passer rating when he gets around to throwing it. Oh, right, that's the future for Jordan Love. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]
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