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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 874694" data-attributes="member: 12283">First... to the bolded statement... lol. Fans tend to be pretty arrogant in their opinions about the draft, but that's a special kind of stupid. The Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts especially are three of the smartest organizations in football right now. Secondly, let's just take Aaron Jones' draft year as an example.18 running backs went on day 3:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Samaje Perine</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Tarik Cohen</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Joe Williams</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Donnel Pumphrey</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Jamaal Williams</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Wayne Gallman</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Marlon Mack</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Brian Hill</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Jeremy McNichols</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">T.J. Logan</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Aaron Jones</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Elijah McGuire</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">De'Angelo Henderson</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Devante Mays</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Khalfani Muhammad</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Elijah Hood</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Chris Carson</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Matthew Dayes</li> </ul>So of 18 picks, three teams found players capable of being starting backs or lead committee backs. 17%.8 running backs went on day 1/2:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Leonard Fournette</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Christian McCaffrey</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Dalvin Cook</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Joe Mixon</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Alvin Kamara</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Kareem Hunt</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">D'Onta Foreman</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">James Conner</li> </ul>Fournette has been productive, but we will exclude him because of how inefficient he is. Foreman actually looked quite promising before suffering a horrific injury his rookie year, but we will exclude him too.So that's 6 out of 8 players who are capable of being starting backs or lead committee backs. 75%.There's your difference. Not only are you far more like to be successful in finding the guy you need in rounds 1-3, you're also far more likely to find a player with the ability to be a difference maker. When teams need or want running backs, they need or want running backs... not a 15-20% chance to secure a running back.I understand that the positional value is low, and I would not support taking a back in the 1st round unless it was truly a special player, but you're taking it to a deranged extreme. Taking shots on day 3 is a great idea if you're adding depth and hoping to get lucky. If you want help immediately, it's not a great strategy. Here's another helpful indicator. There were 17 backs who had 1200 yards from scrimmage last year (rushing/receiving combined)-- 3 of them were day 3 picks or undrafted... 18%.So to make a long story short, your claim that you can just go out and find 90-95% of the value on day 3 at will is a pile of ********.</blockquote>

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