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Cobb could be sidelined at start of camp
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 780084"><p>A word or two on Cobb's snap counts and an observation regarding his fall off since 2014:</p><p></p><p>Targets (per espn.com) relative to snap counts (per Football Outsiders) are an overlooked factor in Cobb's productivity trajectory since the breakout 2014 season.</p><p></p><p>2014: 126 targets / 88% snap count</p><p>2015: 129 targets / 92% snap count</p><p>2016: 84 targets / 63% snap count</p><p>2017: 91 targets / 71% snap counts</p><p></p><p>If you extrapolate Cobbs headline numbers into a 90% snap count, you get the following targets / catches / yards / TDs / yards per catch:</p><p></p><p>2014: 129 / 93 / 1316 / 12 / 14.1</p><p>2015: 126 / 77 / 810 / 6 / 10.5</p><p>2016: 120 / 86 / 871 / 6 / 10.2</p><p>2017: 105 / 76 / 753 / 5 / 9.9</p><p></p><p>From the fall off in 2015 through 2017, the stats per snap are pretty consistent, though fewer targets in 2017 may be a function of Rodgers favoring Cobb more than Hundley.</p><p></p><p>What happened? I have a purely eyeball impression. In 2014, it strikes me that Cobb was Rodgers go-to guy on broken plays, euphemistically referred to as "extended plays", with a lot of downfield first downs. Defensive coaching may have caught up with that in 2015: "Stay with him all over the field no matter how long the play runs and no matter where Rodgers goes." To support that impression, we'd need QB average time-to-throw on Cobb targets for each of the years. In other words, don't abandon Cobb the way Randall did on the fateful Fitzgerald play even if the QB is in trouble or looking elsewhere.</p><p></p><p>If correct, I would expect to see Cobb's targets per snap and receivier QB rating on 2.5+ seconds to throw to be much higher in 2015 than in the subsequent season. I don't know if PFF tracks that and, if they did, how you'd get it.</p><p></p><p>If my theory is correct, tighter coverage on Cobb on extended plays would presumably accure to the other receivers, though this would be impossible to demonstrate.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 780084"] A word or two on Cobb's snap counts and an observation regarding his fall off since 2014: Targets (per espn.com) relative to snap counts (per Football Outsiders) are an overlooked factor in Cobb's productivity trajectory since the breakout 2014 season. 2014: 126 targets / 88% snap count 2015: 129 targets / 92% snap count 2016: 84 targets / 63% snap count 2017: 91 targets / 71% snap counts If you extrapolate Cobbs headline numbers into a 90% snap count, you get the following targets / catches / yards / TDs / yards per catch: 2014: 129 / 93 / 1316 / 12 / 14.1 2015: 126 / 77 / 810 / 6 / 10.5 2016: 120 / 86 / 871 / 6 / 10.2 2017: 105 / 76 / 753 / 5 / 9.9 From the fall off in 2015 through 2017, the stats per snap are pretty consistent, though fewer targets in 2017 may be a function of Rodgers favoring Cobb more than Hundley. What happened? I have a purely eyeball impression. In 2014, it strikes me that Cobb was Rodgers go-to guy on broken plays, euphemistically referred to as "extended plays", with a lot of downfield first downs. Defensive coaching may have caught up with that in 2015: "Stay with him all over the field no matter how long the play runs and no matter where Rodgers goes." To support that impression, we'd need QB average time-to-throw on Cobb targets for each of the years. In other words, don't abandon Cobb the way Randall did on the fateful Fitzgerald play even if the QB is in trouble or looking elsewhere. If correct, I would expect to see Cobb's targets per snap and receivier QB rating on 2.5+ seconds to throw to be much higher in 2015 than in the subsequent season. I don't know if PFF tracks that and, if they did, how you'd get it. If my theory is correct, tighter coverage on Cobb on extended plays would presumably accure to the other receivers, though this would be impossible to demonstrate. [/QUOTE]
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Cobb could be sidelined at start of camp
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