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Assuming are defense is in the middle of the pack next year..
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 434416" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p><span style="color: #141414"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"> So if Collins returns you base your pessimism on the absence of one player because you say it’s unlikely the Packers can draft a player who can significantly improve the pass rush in his first season. I think (and hope) Thompson will be unusually focused on acquiring just such a player and IMO that increases the Packers’ chances of success. The last time that happened was 2009 when Thompson picked BJ Raji instead of the reportedly slightly higher rated Michael Crabtree. And then in his boldest move in the draft to date, he moved up into the first round to grab Clay Matthews. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #141414"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">But you argue it takes a couple of years to become a difference-maker rushing the passer. I somewhat disagree since both Raji and Matthews contributed to the pass rush right away. If the Packers hit on a pass rusher in the first two rounds I think we’ll see pretty quickly if he’s the real deal or not and I would expect him to contribute right away. But that doesn’t contradict your point that pass rushers are hard to find. So if it takes a couple of years to fulfill their pass rushing potential, consider the list of youngsters on the roster. If the biggest jump in productivity happens between a player’s first and second season, Vic So’oto has a realistic chance of being the answer at ROLB (or LOLB if they move Clay back to the right side). He showed the most burst IMO and I believe all he has to do is master the defense. IMO that’s certainly a realistic possibility. And if Jamari Lattimore can add weight and strength, he has a chance to contribute to the pass rush, too. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #141414"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">The Packers have a couple of players going into their third seasons who could improve the pass rush. The first is Mike Neal. IMO “all” he has to do is regain his quickness and he would finally provide the solid play vs. the run and the pass rush he was drafted to provide. I don’t know if he can do it or not but I have seen him be a difference-maker on the DL although admittedly for an all too brief period of time. Robert Francois flashed some potential although he’s certainly a long shot to be the answer. Even a few of players I have given up on have a chance like Frank Zombo, who made a big splash early in his career. And then there are the “unknowns” like Lawrence Guy who have an outside chance. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #141414"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">IMO the most likely of those on the roster to improve the pass rush is So’oto. If Mike Neal can completely heal he’s got a great chance too. And I think Thompson has a decent chance of drafting a difference-maker on defense because that will be his focus. The others I’ve mentioned are all long shots to one degree or another but according to you if Collins returns, only one more difference-maker is needed. But what if more than one of the youngsters on the roster significantly improve? What if two draftees start and significantly contribute to the defense? </span></span></p><p> </p><p> <span style="color: #141414"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Let’s a look at that. In Capers’ first year the Packers finished 7th in scoring defense in the league surrendering an average of 18.6 points per game (ppg). In 2010 they finished second at a 15.0 ppg and last season they finished 19th at 22.4 ppg. The average for Capers’ three years in Green Bay is 18.7 ppg and a ninth finish overall. 2009 was almost exactly the average ppg. 2010 was 3.7ppg better and 2011 was 3.7 ppg worse (all these numbers rounded to the nearest decimal point). So which was the “fluke” year? What if the defense just ‘regresses to the mean’ in the coming season? </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #141414"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">IMO the Packers have a fantastic offense, solid special teams and a very good GM and HC. I think Capers is a good DC and what he needs most is better talent. The Packers’ team-building model is to draft and develop and they go into this draft with more than their original 7 picks. Thompson and his staff are well above average drafters. And there are players on the roster who may develop and significantly contribute to the defense. Even though I've noted the potential contribution of several youngsters on the roster, IMO wild optimism is uncalled for. But so is being unduly pessimistic. </span></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 434416, member: 4300"] [COLOR=#141414][FONT=Georgia][/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#141414][FONT=Tahoma] So if Collins returns you base your pessimism on the absence of one player because you say it’s unlikely the Packers can draft a player who can significantly improve the pass rush in his first season. I think (and hope) Thompson will be unusually focused on acquiring just such a player and IMO that increases the Packers’ chances of success. The last time that happened was 2009 when Thompson picked BJ Raji instead of the reportedly slightly higher rated Michael Crabtree. And then in his boldest move in the draft to date, he moved up into the first round to grab Clay Matthews. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#141414][FONT=Tahoma]But you argue it takes a couple of years to become a difference-maker rushing the passer. I somewhat disagree since both Raji and Matthews contributed to the pass rush right away. If the Packers hit on a pass rusher in the first two rounds I think we’ll see pretty quickly if he’s the real deal or not and I would expect him to contribute right away. But that doesn’t contradict your point that pass rushers are hard to find. So if it takes a couple of years to fulfill their pass rushing potential, consider the list of youngsters on the roster. If the biggest jump in productivity happens between a player’s first and second season, Vic So’oto has a realistic chance of being the answer at ROLB (or LOLB if they move Clay back to the right side). He showed the most burst IMO and I believe all he has to do is master the defense. IMO that’s certainly a realistic possibility. And if Jamari Lattimore can add weight and strength, he has a chance to contribute to the pass rush, too. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#141414][FONT=Tahoma]The Packers have a couple of players going into their third seasons who could improve the pass rush. The first is Mike Neal. IMO “all” he has to do is regain his quickness and he would finally provide the solid play vs. the run and the pass rush he was drafted to provide. I don’t know if he can do it or not but I have seen him be a difference-maker on the DL although admittedly for an all too brief period of time. Robert Francois flashed some potential although he’s certainly a long shot to be the answer. Even a few of players I have given up on have a chance like Frank Zombo, who made a big splash early in his career. And then there are the “unknowns” like Lawrence Guy who have an outside chance. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#141414][FONT=Tahoma]IMO the most likely of those on the roster to improve the pass rush is So’oto. If Mike Neal can completely heal he’s got a great chance too. And I think Thompson has a decent chance of drafting a difference-maker on defense because that will be his focus. The others I’ve mentioned are all long shots to one degree or another but according to you if Collins returns, only one more difference-maker is needed. But what if more than one of the youngsters on the roster significantly improve? What if two draftees start and significantly contribute to the defense? [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#141414][FONT=Georgia] [/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#141414][FONT=Tahoma]Let’s a look at that. In Capers’ first year the Packers finished 7th in scoring defense in the league surrendering an average of 18.6 points per game (ppg). In 2010 they finished second at a 15.0 ppg and last season they finished 19th at 22.4 ppg. The average for Capers’ three years in Green Bay is 18.7 ppg and a ninth finish overall. 2009 was almost exactly the average ppg. 2010 was 3.7ppg better and 2011 was 3.7 ppg worse (all these numbers rounded to the nearest decimal point). So which was the “fluke” year? What if the defense just ‘regresses to the mean’ in the coming season? [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#141414][FONT=Tahoma]IMO the Packers have a fantastic offense, solid special teams and a very good GM and HC. I think Capers is a good DC and what he needs most is better talent. The Packers’ team-building model is to draft and develop and they go into this draft with more than their original 7 picks. Thompson and his staff are well above average drafters. And there are players on the roster who may develop and significantly contribute to the defense. Even though I've noted the potential contribution of several youngsters on the roster, IMO wild optimism is uncalled for. But so is being unduly pessimistic. [/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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Assuming are defense is in the middle of the pack next year..
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