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2023 Division round at the SF
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<blockquote data-quote="OldSchool101" data-source="post: 1028953" data-attributes="member: 10086"><p>Exactly.</p><p>Theres a probability thing I like to do in my mind. Yards vs Time. Obviously having to factor moving the chains and Timeout count</p><p></p><p></p><p>Love ideally needed the SF30 (47 yarder) or their SF40 yard line worst case (57 yarder).</p><p>Love was at the GB36 at 1st n 10 with :52 seconds.</p><p> If each play is roughly 7 seconds (throw incomplete or use sideline) then you can create a play by play probability to goal. 34 yards was an ideal goal for needed yardage for a FG</p><p>34yards/7 seconds = 4.8 yards PER PLAY</p><p>That means 5 yards is a statistical Win per play. He could’ve actually increased our odds making it to the GB44 yardline and stopped the clock. Even if he picks up 3 yards with a clock stop it helped because he still needs 2-3 more 1st downs and you need 2.5 per play to move the sticks in 4-down. We didn’t NEED a 20 yard play there and unless it’s 4th down you never throw it up for grabs. Worst case if you can’t beeline the sideline for a + gain? throw it OUT OF BOUNDS. ideally past LOS to eliminate a grounding interpretation.</p><p></p><p>I think that’s kinda what you are referring to but more stating a more intricate example. Use the clock and don’t get impatient unless you are out of Timeouts or you see a blatant broken play.</p><p></p><p>PS. I also don’t understand why he rolled to the side without any outlet WR. To complicate it? he rolled play weakside.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="OldSchool101, post: 1028953, member: 10086"] Exactly. Theres a probability thing I like to do in my mind. Yards vs Time. Obviously having to factor moving the chains and Timeout count Love ideally needed the SF30 (47 yarder) or their SF40 yard line worst case (57 yarder). Love was at the GB36 at 1st n 10 with :52 seconds. If each play is roughly 7 seconds (throw incomplete or use sideline) then you can create a play by play probability to goal. 34 yards was an ideal goal for needed yardage for a FG 34yards/7 seconds = 4.8 yards PER PLAY That means 5 yards is a statistical Win per play. He could’ve actually increased our odds making it to the GB44 yardline and stopped the clock. Even if he picks up 3 yards with a clock stop it helped because he still needs 2-3 more 1st downs and you need 2.5 per play to move the sticks in 4-down. We didn’t NEED a 20 yard play there and unless it’s 4th down you never throw it up for grabs. Worst case if you can’t beeline the sideline for a + gain? throw it OUT OF BOUNDS. ideally past LOS to eliminate a grounding interpretation. I think that’s kinda what you are referring to but more stating a more intricate example. Use the clock and don’t get impatient unless you are out of Timeouts or you see a blatant broken play. PS. I also don’t understand why he rolled to the side without any outlet WR. To complicate it? he rolled play weakside. [/QUOTE]
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