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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 872086"><p>In watching one of PFF's podcasts, the guys mentioned that this AWS machine learning application, yada, yada, values coverage defenders over pass rushers while determining that OLs get low WAR valuations along with RBs. We don't know what this black box is doing, they will never tell us, and if it is actually machine learning they would not be able to tell us precisely even if they wanted to.</p><p></p><p>That said, they mentioned that Brees' and Brady's success in getting the ball out quick neutralizes the value of pass blocking and that coverage helps pass rushing more than the other way around. We can futher deduce that devaluing RBs spills over into devaluing run blocking, that running the ball is subject to some law of diminishing returns, while the success of these QBs has come with sometimes dodgy pass blocking grades.</p><p></p><p>Behind the veneer of complexity, I believe the conclusions are rooted in some basic statistics that accumulate and reinforce game after game: You can hand the ball to a McCaffrey or a Jones and they will average 4.8 or 4.6 yards per carry. Or you can throw the ball and average 6 or 7 yards per pass play after adjusting for sacks. Even Kyle Allen, with an exceptionally high sack rate, averaged 5.47 on passes minus sacks.</p><p></p><p>Does PFF have a runaway alogothim? To some degree perhaps but there is a point to be taken. The successful stategies are centered on throwing the ball and defending the pass. Running the ball is a tactical support to the passing game, and I don't think I have to count the ways running the ball is predominantly a tool for setting up the pass in today's game. Yeah, you can go overboard and get gashed all day on the ground <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/eek.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":eek:" title="Eek! :eek:" data-shortname=":eek:" />, and if everybody started playing 6 corner dime on every play the algo would start swinging the other way.</p><p></p><p>But I think the message is clear even if it is perhaps overbaked to one degree or another: Spend your money on QBs, WRs and coverage players, run the ball tactically, and get the ball out quick a lot to neutralize your deficiencies.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 872086"] In watching one of PFF's podcasts, the guys mentioned that this AWS machine learning application, yada, yada, values coverage defenders over pass rushers while determining that OLs get low WAR valuations along with RBs. We don't know what this black box is doing, they will never tell us, and if it is actually machine learning they would not be able to tell us precisely even if they wanted to. That said, they mentioned that Brees' and Brady's success in getting the ball out quick neutralizes the value of pass blocking and that coverage helps pass rushing more than the other way around. We can futher deduce that devaluing RBs spills over into devaluing run blocking, that running the ball is subject to some law of diminishing returns, while the success of these QBs has come with sometimes dodgy pass blocking grades. Behind the veneer of complexity, I believe the conclusions are rooted in some basic statistics that accumulate and reinforce game after game: You can hand the ball to a McCaffrey or a Jones and they will average 4.8 or 4.6 yards per carry. Or you can throw the ball and average 6 or 7 yards per pass play after adjusting for sacks. Even Kyle Allen, with an exceptionally high sack rate, averaged 5.47 on passes minus sacks. Does PFF have a runaway alogothim? To some degree perhaps but there is a point to be taken. The successful stategies are centered on throwing the ball and defending the pass. Running the ball is a tactical support to the passing game, and I don't think I have to count the ways running the ball is predominantly a tool for setting up the pass in today's game. Yeah, you can go overboard and get gashed all day on the ground :eek:, and if everybody started playing 6 corner dime on every play the algo would start swinging the other way. But I think the message is clear even if it is perhaps overbaked to one degree or another: Spend your money on QBs, WRs and coverage players, run the ball tactically, and get the ball out quick a lot to neutralize your deficiencies. [/QUOTE]
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