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2020 Salary Cap Situation
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 871726"><p>I couldn't find the PFF WAR rankings or anything more than vague descriptions of this black box methodology, but I did find a note where they ranked his as the top WAR running back over his first 3 seasons but only the 34th. ranked player in WAR, in a tie with his teammate D.J. Moore over his first 2 seasons:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-case-for-trading-christian-mccaffrey" target="_blank">https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-case-for-trading-christian-mccaffrey</a>.</p><p></p><p>I find a couple of clues as why McCaffrey (and running backs in general) rank low in PFF league WAR.</p><p></p><p><strong>"Nearly all of a running back’s touches come at or behind the line of scrimmage, making it more difficult to produce efficient offense on those plays."</strong></p><p></p><p>That's runs and passes, which applies especially in McCaffrey's case, a guy who had 1,005 receiving yards with 1,019 yards after catch. There are a lot of catches behind the line of scimmage imbedded in those numbers.</p><p></p><p>The problem with taking PFFs WAR as an indication of <strong>importance </strong>of the RB position is that it begs the question, "why have a running back at all?" Add another blocker or WR most or all of the time, why doncha, and run the ball little or none at all? Clearly there is a dynamic between the objective of a play likely to produce short yards and those where a passing play objectives is chunks of yards. Perhaps we can best sum up the use of RBs in successful offenses as tactical, not strategic.</p><p></p><p>The McCaffrey problem is one of overuse. Featuring him (or any RB) on this high a percentage of plays is not a formula for winning. 4.8 yards per rushing attempt might look good, but how does it compare to 7 or 8 yards per pass attempt, the vast middle range for QBs? McCaffrey's 7.1 yards per target falls low in that QB range and well below decent WRs. Runs and screens have their important place in the game, but there is a limit to how frequently they should be run, and the yards per carry is bound to drag down PFF's purported efficiency as described above.</p><p></p><p>In the end, WAR is a measure of performance relative to the average player at his position. Here we find agreement. There's a reason high draft capital is not often spent on RBs. Skill sets and productivity are tightly clustered around the average NFL range. There is even a theory extant that RB performance is strongly differentiated by how well the offensive line performs.</p><p></p><p>Through Dec. 6 last season, PFF ranked McCaffrey as the 1st. ranked fantasy player in the league which goes to a point I harp on, fantasy points do not translate to winning football. So in all of this, why would Carolina pay McCaffrey this money? It's bowing to the fans. He was already the face of the franchise so now they're paying him. If you're going to lose a lot of games you need something or somebody to keep the fans engaged and in the seats.</p><p></p><p>So, yes, I would not pay a running back $10 mil per year for his tactical value, injury risk and the relatively low draft capital needed to find an adequate replacement.</p><p></p><p>If one <em>must</em> extend a RB going into his 4th. season, which would not be my preference, the Chargers had the right idea with Ekeler, a Jones comparison that has been cited in these pages. We could quibble over whether Jones is worth $8 mil/year or Ekeler's $6 mil/year, but the critical point is that in year 4 of Ekeler's new deal, his 7th. season, his dead cap drops to $1.5 mil with a cap savings of $5.75 mil, an easy out after his 6th. season. Getting out after 5 years would not be onerous, with $3 mil in dead cap. In short, don't commit past a RB's season 6 in a second contract.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 871726"] I couldn't find the PFF WAR rankings or anything more than vague descriptions of this black box methodology, but I did find a note where they ranked his as the top WAR running back over his first 3 seasons but only the 34th. ranked player in WAR, in a tie with his teammate D.J. Moore over his first 2 seasons: [URL]https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-case-for-trading-christian-mccaffrey[/URL]. I find a couple of clues as why McCaffrey (and running backs in general) rank low in PFF league WAR. [B]"Nearly all of a running back’s touches come at or behind the line of scrimmage, making it more difficult to produce efficient offense on those plays."[/B] That's runs and passes, which applies especially in McCaffrey's case, a guy who had 1,005 receiving yards with 1,019 yards after catch. There are a lot of catches behind the line of scimmage imbedded in those numbers. The problem with taking PFFs WAR as an indication of [B]importance [/B]of the RB position is that it begs the question, "why have a running back at all?" Add another blocker or WR most or all of the time, why doncha, and run the ball little or none at all? Clearly there is a dynamic between the objective of a play likely to produce short yards and those where a passing play objectives is chunks of yards. Perhaps we can best sum up the use of RBs in successful offenses as tactical, not strategic. The McCaffrey problem is one of overuse. Featuring him (or any RB) on this high a percentage of plays is not a formula for winning. 4.8 yards per rushing attempt might look good, but how does it compare to 7 or 8 yards per pass attempt, the vast middle range for QBs? McCaffrey's 7.1 yards per target falls low in that QB range and well below decent WRs. Runs and screens have their important place in the game, but there is a limit to how frequently they should be run, and the yards per carry is bound to drag down PFF's purported efficiency as described above. In the end, WAR is a measure of performance relative to the average player at his position. Here we find agreement. There's a reason high draft capital is not often spent on RBs. Skill sets and productivity are tightly clustered around the average NFL range. There is even a theory extant that RB performance is strongly differentiated by how well the offensive line performs. Through Dec. 6 last season, PFF ranked McCaffrey as the 1st. ranked fantasy player in the league which goes to a point I harp on, fantasy points do not translate to winning football. So in all of this, why would Carolina pay McCaffrey this money? It's bowing to the fans. He was already the face of the franchise so now they're paying him. If you're going to lose a lot of games you need something or somebody to keep the fans engaged and in the seats. So, yes, I would not pay a running back $10 mil per year for his tactical value, injury risk and the relatively low draft capital needed to find an adequate replacement. If one [I]must[/I] extend a RB going into his 4th. season, which would not be my preference, the Chargers had the right idea with Ekeler, a Jones comparison that has been cited in these pages. We could quibble over whether Jones is worth $8 mil/year or Ekeler's $6 mil/year, but the critical point is that in year 4 of Ekeler's new deal, his 7th. season, his dead cap drops to $1.5 mil with a cap savings of $5.75 mil, an easy out after his 6th. season. Getting out after 5 years would not be onerous, with $3 mil in dead cap. In short, don't commit past a RB's season 6 in a second contract. [/QUOTE]
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